584
FXUS61 KCAR 191335
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
935 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain to our south today. A cold front will
cross the area Thursday followed by high pressure on Friday.
Low pressure will approach on Saturday and track north of our
area Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
925 am update...The big questions for today will be where record
high temps are set and where afternoon thunderstorms set up.
Have not changed the forecast at this point, but Caribou is well
set to tie or exceed the all-time record high of 96F. In
addition, the all-time record high low temp of 71F at Caribou
will be tied for the 19th. See the climate section below for a
full list of records.

In terms of afternoon thunderstorms, SBCAPE will be unsually
high for the area, but the trigger would most likely be the weak
disturbance moving eastward out of upstate New York. Will make
adjustments in PoPs once we analyze 12Z data and review the
latest guidance.

Previous discussion...
Surface high pressure centered to our south combined strong
upper level ridging across the area is set up to bring record
high temperatures today. We are still looking at highs inland
reaching well into the mid 90s, but much cooler along the coast
where a seabreeze will set up. Forecast CAPES are projected to
reach 1000-2000 J/KG across the area. However, strong capping
and a lack of any trigger mechanisms will result in very limited
convection. A couple spots may have an isolated thunderstorm
this afternoon. The best chance for any thunderstorm to pop up
will likely be over the highlands with a slight chance that any
storm that does build over the higher elevations drifts east
into lower elevations before dissipating. Otherwise, today will
be sunny to partly cloudy, very hot and just a bit breezier than
Tuesday as surface high pressure continues to slide to our
south.

Any stray thunderstorms will dissipate this evening. Otherwise,
tonight will be partially moonlit and remaining very warm. The
high humidity and a continuing west, southwesterly breeze will
prevent much cooling with lows inland expected to be in the mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models begin weakening the upper high ovr New Eng Thu. This
will allow the passage of a cold front from Cntrl QB late Morn
for far Nrn areas and by erly Eve for Downeast areas as a weak
flat s/wv tops and suppresses the upper high ovr Srn New Eng and
the Mid Atlc states. High temps will be warmest ovr Cntrl and
Downeast areas where mid to upper 90s will again be common, with
high temps even hot nearly to the beaches of Downeast Maine
with with the sfc pres grad a little more off shore. Shwrs with
isold to sct tstms will accompany the cold frontal passage, but
with only modest cooling alf, CAPEs will likely be long and
skinny, with tstms needing the htg of the day durg the aftn hrs
to become more numerous, meaning that the best potential of
tstms may be ovr Cntrl and Downeast areas where we went with max
likely PoPs, with comparatively little if any tstms across the
N where we kept max PoPs in the chc range. Enhanced elements for
stronger tstms ovr Cntrl/Downeast areas will include lcly heavy
downpours, some gusty winds, as well a frequent cld to grnd
ltng with tall echo tops.

Remaining shwrs/tstms will slowly exit S of the Downeast coast
Thu Ngt , with cooler temps by erly Fri Morn for our FA
followed by msly fair and cooler (but still at to abv normal
temps) conditions Fri and Sat as Can sfc pres ridges across the
Rgn.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Longer range models are now a little more progressive with sfc
low system advcg ESE from the upper Midwest later Sat Ngt into
Sun. PoPs durg this tm frame ramp up from chc shwrs to the
likely range where stratiform rn and a slgt chc tstms are
mentioned. High temps were lowered Sun a few deg F with more in
the way of steady rnfl xpctd, with uncertainty Mon as to whether
rn will be stratiform or shwry. For now, high temps remain near
seasonal norms with abv normal lows on Mon but may too need be
lowered if steady rn predominates most of the day. Rnfl totals
between late Sat Ngt and Mon may be sig ovr ptns of the FA, but
still to erly to give details as to where. Shwrs this fcst
update look to msly end Mon Ngt, leaving msly Fair and
comfortably warm conditions on Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area today and
tonight with the except of Bar Harbor which may have a bit of
fog and mist coming in from the ocean late tonight. Winds SW
around 5-10 kt today and 5 kt tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Thu - Sat...mainly VFR all TAF sites with
IFR possible erly Thu Morn at KBHB. Isold late aftn/erly eve
shwrs/tstms. Shwrs and sct tstms Thu Aftn and Erly Eve with
brief IFR-MVFR clgs/vsbys in hvy downpours and gusty winds. Lgt
winds xcpt near tstms.

Sat Ngt - Sun...all TAF sites becmg MVFR/IFR clgs and ocnly
vsbys in shwrs/rn. Lgt to mdt SE winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will remain below SCA today and
tonight with seas over the offshore waters around 3 ft today and
4 ft tonight. Humid air over the cooler waters will result in
fog and mist through tonight which may be dense in some areas.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and wvs will cont to remain below SCA
thresholds Thu thru Sun, although initially close to SCA
conditions ovr the outer waters on Thu. Went with a blend of wv
model guidance for fcst wv hts. Wvs will be composed of two
spectral groups; a shorter 5-7sec pd group and a 10-12sec pd
swell group. The potential of oceanic fog conts spcly the outer
waters into Thu Morn as blyr dwpts remain abv se sfc temps.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will soar under an anomalously upper level high
pressure system, challenging record high temperatures
and record max minimum temperatures thru Thu.

June 19th High Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (96)96 in 2020
Bangor (95)95 in 1995
Millinocket (96)95 in 2020
Houlton (95)95 in 2020

June 20th Max Minimum Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (67)68 in 1970
Bangor (72)72 in 1931
Millinocket (71)69 in 1923
Houlton (65)67 in 1976

June 20th High Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (89)            93 in 2020
Bangor (95)             95 in 2020
Millinocket (93)        96 in 2020
Houlton (91)            94 in 2020

All-time Record Highs:
(Forecast, Day)

Caribou (96 June 19)96  June 2020
Bangor (95 June 19/20)104 August 1935
Millinocket(96 June 19) 101 June 1907
Houlton (95 June 19)99  August 1975

All-time Record Max Minimum Temperature Records:
(Forecast, Day)

Caribou (69 June 19)71 in July 2018
Bangor (72 June 20) 77 in August 1949
Millinocket(71 June 20) 80 in July 1912
Houlton (65 June 19) 72 in August 2009

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001>006-010.
     Heat Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MEZ011-015-031.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ011-
     015-031.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ016-017-032.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/MCW
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Bloomer/MCW/VJN
Marine...Bloomer/MCW/VJN
Climate...