975
FXUS62 KCHS 170449
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1249 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will linger over the area tonight before
dissipating early this week. High pressure will then ridge in
from offshore mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Overnight: Mid-level ridging persists, maybe even strengthening
a bit. The weak cold front across our area will gradually lift
to the north or begin to dissipate. The synoptic models and
CAMs keep our area dry with the large scale subsidence, poor
thermodynamics and no forcing. Winds will be light or calm away
from the coast, where it`ll be a little gusty. Lows will dip
into the upper 60s and lower 70s far inland, with mid and upper
70s along the coastal counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aloft, a ridge will remain centered across the Southeast and
Mid- Atlantic States Monday, before becoming more elongated
across the Northeast to Southeast United States Tuesday and
Wednesday. At the sfc, a stalled front across the local area
will likely dissipate early week, before high pressure builds
across the region from the Atlantic by Tuesday. Weak coastal
troughing developing along the southern periphery of the ridge
is anticipated just off the Southeast Coast, which should favor
few to potentially scattered showers and thunderstorms across
coastal areas, mainly south of Beaufort, SC and into southeast
Georgia Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evenings, before precip
coverage gradually increases and shifts slightly further inland
Wednesday as ample moisture arrives within a prolonged onshore
flow. High temps in the upper 80s nearshore to lower 90s inland
Monday should trend a degree or two cooler each day through
Wednesday with the onshore flow prevailing. Overnight lows will
range in the mid-upper 60s well inland to low- mid 70s closer to
the coast Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Subsidence will continue to diminish aloft with retreating high
pressure at the surface and aloft, and the environment will
trend back towards a more typical summertime pattern, with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during afternoon
hours. Moisture is anticipated to stream into the region during
the second half of the week as a low pressure disturbance
approaches the Southeast United States and lingers off the east
coast of Florida. The additional moisture will help to enhance
afternoon showers and thunderstorms locally, especially across
southeast GA later in the week. Temperatures are expected to
remain near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Strong subsidence and considerable dry air
between about 10K and 40K feet will result in little or no
convection at any of the sites through 06Z Tuesday. Thus we are
showing VFR conditions, with maybe a period of MVFR ceilings at
any of the airports this upcoming morning. Gusty E winds will
peak at 15-20 kt for all terminals this afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Brief flight
restrictions are possible in afternoon showers/thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday, especially at KSAV. Later in the week,
chances of tempo flight restrictions increase at CHS/JZI/SAV
terminals with showers and thunderstorms moving onshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight: A weak cold front will linger over the area before
slowly lifting back northward late. Sustained winds will be
mainly from the E 10-15 kt. Seas will average 2-3 ft, with some
4 footers at times.

Monday through Thursday: High pressure extending across the
region from the north and weak coastal troughing developing just
off the Southeast Coast will favor an enhanced pressure
gradient across local waters early week. In general, east-
northeast winds approaching 15-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft
are likely through Monday, before 6 ft seas arrive across
offshore Georgia waters Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be initiated across offshore Georgia waters by the end of
Tuesday. Heading through mid- week, high pressure and the
coastal trough persists, but increasing swell energy ahead of
Atlantic low pressure approaching eastern Florida and a
prolonged fetch will support seas building across local waters
while winds gust around 25 kts. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be needed for all waters outside the CHS Harbor during
the second half of the week with seas building as high as 6-9 ft
across nearshore waters and 7-11 ft across offshore Georgia
waters by Thursday.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk for rip currents will remain in
place through Monday with increasing swells. A Moderate Risk
for rip currents will likely continue for all beaches midweek as
well as swell energy continues to increase ahead of a low
pressure approaching the Southeast United States late week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...