996
FXUS62 KCHS 200139
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
939 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the region into Thursday. A
tropical wave will impact the Southeast U.S coast Thursday
night into Friday. High pressure will return over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The forecast area will remain between a sfc ridge across the
central Carolinas and a broad low across the western Atlantic. A
region of moisture convergence may persist along the coast
through most of tonight. Isolated showers may develop in
waves along the coast tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to
range from the mid 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure will continue to hold influence over the
local area on Thursday. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will
shift westward towards the Southeast coast. While a few showers
can`t be ruled out primarily at the coast, similar to previous
days, forecast soundings indicate dry air and strong subsidence
which will act to limit shower activity. Highs will mainly be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows will range from the mid 60s
across the interior to mid 70s at the immediate coast.

The aforementioned trough will likely shift onshore somewhere
near the GA/FL border early Friday. PWats will steadily
increase, forecast to exceed 2 inches by Friday, and showers are
expected to shift onshore through the day. While there should
be a fair amount of coverage, no rainfall/flooding concerns are
anticipated. Highs will again be seasonable, in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Lows Friday night will be in the 70s.

Mid level ridge settles over the southern U.S. on Saturday,
while the remnant trough appears to linger over the area at the
surface. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with
highest coverage focused over southeast Georgia in proximity to
better moisture and convergence. High temperatures will peak in
the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level ridge weakens early next week in response to a
stronger wave passing from the Great Lakes region through the
mid-Atlantic states. This could send a cold front towards the
area, but it is unlikely to make a clear passage. Should see a
return to a more seasonable diurnal convective pattern. Monday
could be the more active day of the set with the approaching
front. Temperatures will heat up with highs forecast to reach
the mid to upper 90s inland of the beaches. With elevated dew
points, it will feel even hotter. Current forecast indicates
heat indices generally peaking around 105, with a few spots up
to 108. Will continue to monitor the potential need for Heat
Advisories. Main question mark will be the extent of convection
and if that will disturb the temperature trends.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prior to the 0Z TAFs, isolated showers were positioned just
upstream of KCHS and KJZI. Both TAFs will feature a mention of
VCSH with gusty east winds through 130Z. The rest of this
evening and overnight should remain VFR with steady ENE winds
between 5 to 10 kts. Gusty east winds are forecast to redevelop
between 14 to 15Z Thursday morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions will be possible
at all terminals Thursday night into Friday with low clouds and
showers/thunderstorms moving onshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Breezy east winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt will
persist across the waters tonight. Seas will average 4-6 ft
nearshore waters and 5-7 ft over the Georgia offshore waters.
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through
the night. Winds in the Charleston Harbor should drop just below
advisory levels by midnight, but will remain somewhat elevated
through the night. Waves in the Charleston Harbor will be 1-2 ft
this evening.

Thursday through Monday: High pressure will continue to extend
across inland areas while an inverted trough approaches and
eventually moves onshore the Southeast coast late week. This
will drive gusty east-northeast winds over the coastal waters.
Seas also remain elevated, as high as 5-6 ft across nearshore
zones and 6-8 ft beyond 20 nm. These conditions will support a
continuation of ongoing Small Craft Advisories through Friday
morning. For the Charleston Harbor, another Advisory could be
needed for Thursday as wind gusts approach 25 knots. Conditions
will start to improve on Friday. Winds and seas should then
remain below Advisory levels through early next week.

Rip Currents: A High Risk for rip currents will continue
through Thursday across all area beaches. An enhanced risk of
rip currents is expected to persist through the end of the week
as long period swell impacts the region.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides are already more than a foot above astronomical levels,
and with a continued moderate to strong easterly wind, and the
Full Moon to occur Friday evening, those departures could grow
even more. It is possible minor coastal flooding could occur
over the coastal sections of Charleston and Colleton Counties
with the Thursday evening and maybe Friday evening high tide.
Tides elsewhere are forecast to remain below minor flood stage.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ330.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ350-352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...