993
FXUS61 KCLE 160159
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
959 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist through the weekend as a strong ridge
becomes established in the region, which will persist through
next week and bring above normal high temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
No changes to the forecast at this time.

7 PM Update...
Minor changes to the forecast at this time. Aligned temperatures
and dew points with recent evening trends and modified clouds to
reflect high clouds moving through region from convection over
the Midwest.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will persist through the near term period,
allowing for dry conditions to persist for the remainder of this
weekend. Temperatures this afternoon have climbed into the low
to mid 70s making for a pleasant Saturday. Temperatures tonight
will fall into the low to mid 50s. On Sunday, a strong upper
level ridge will become dominant over the region and mark the
start of increasing temperatures through rest of this week.
Highs on Sunday will climb into the mid 80s to low 90s with
plenty of sunshine expected. Low RH values will keep apparent
temperatures close to actual temperatures throughout the day.
Overnight lows on Sunday night will drop into the upper 60s to
low 70s.

More details on the prolonged heat wave and safety information
can be found below, on weather.gov/cle, and on social media
platforms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
STATES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY CREATING A VERY HOT PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. THE MODELS INDICATE THE HEAT WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES FORECAST NEAR 100
DEGREES. THESE HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT. 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE -8C TO -9C DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH IS WARM
BUT NOT SO WARM THAT THE ATMOSPHERE CAN NOT SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A
QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
BRIEFLY INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AND MAY PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN OH. KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER
POPS OVER WESTERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE
WELL ENTRENCHED BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED HEAT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES.  A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THIS
PERIOD BUT THE MODELS INDICATE A DRYING TREND IN THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK. WITH LITTLE OR NO DYNAMICS TO SPEAK ABOUT AND DRY
AIR, ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE. A
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions are expected through the period with high clouds
and light winds. Cirrus clouds will be in and out of the region
dispersing east from convection across the Upper Midwest. Winds
will be northeast to east tonight before shifting to southeast
to south, as high pressure shifts east allowing for return flow
across the region.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Wednesday. An isolated
thunderstorm or two is possible in the afternoon on Monday and
Tuesday, but confidence is low.

&&

.MARINE...
A VARIABLE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE FLOW WILL
PREDOMINATELY REMAIN FROM A NORTHEAST/EAST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, THE FLOW WILL
SHIFT TO A WEAK SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER, LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
LIKELY STRONGLY INFLUENCE THE WIND DIRECTION. WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LAKE AND LAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
LAKE BREEZES/LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAIN 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected next week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs on several
days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday, June 21 are
listed below for our official climate sites.


Date   Toledo     Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
06-17  97(1994)    94(1936)   94(2018)    94(2018)   95(1994)    90(2018)
06-18  98(1994)    93(1994)   96(1944)    96(1944)   95(1994)    92(2018)
06-19  98(1995)    94(1994)   92(1995)    94(1994)   94(1994)    92(1931)
06-20  98(1953)    94(1988)   96(1988)    95(1933)   95(1933)    92(2016)
06-21  100(2022)   96(1988)   95(2022)    97(1933)   98(1933)    95(1933)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Garnet
LONG TERM...Garnet
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Garnet
CLIMATE...