Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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890 FXUS61 KCLE 210619 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 219 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge builds west through the rest of this week. Low pressure develops over the Upper Midwest Saturday before moving into the Great Lakes region. This low will drag a cold front southeast across the region on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 9:40 PM Update: Scattered thunderstorms over Northwest and North Central Ohio have weakened to a few lingering showers. Expect this limited remaining activity to continue to dissipate through the late evening hours. Some patchy fog development is possible once again late tonight, though dew points are a few degrees lower than they were at this time yesterday so the thinking is that coverage of any denser fog will be very limited, if any. Previous Discussion: Pop-up thunderstorms mainly along the I-75 corridor and the Lake Erie lakeshore will continue for the next few hours under an unseasonably warm and unstable airmass. Strong to severe limits are possible with any storm with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts. Moist atmosphere with above average PWATs will continue the threat for heavy rainfall and instances of flooding in any persistent and slow moving storms. Cold front stalls just south of the lakeshore overnight tonight before becoming stationary and draped across Lake Erie through Friday. We`ll remain warm and unstable once again tomorrow so there remains the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across inland sites tomorrow afternoon along this boundary. Warm overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night settle in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another hot day tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and heat indices approaching 100. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Expect zonal flow to develop aloft Saturday with a warm front to the north of Lake Erie as low pressure lifting northeast across the Upper Midwest begins to push a cold front towards the CWA. Similar to previous days, there could be some scattered showers primarily across NE OH and NW PA where there will be convergence/forcing due to a lake breeze boundary during the afternoon. There will still be a decent amount of moisture/buoyancy, so any thunderstorms that develop could produce stronger downbursts. The weather pattern begins to shift Sunday as the aforementioned cold front approaches from the west and crosses the CWA at some point during the day. This will provide a chance of more widespread and organized convection and there may be potential for stronger storms due to enhanced wind shear ahead of the front. Still looking like damaging wind gusts as the main threat with perhaps large hail, but there could be enough helicity in place for a low-end tornado risk. Hot weather will continue through the weekend, but should start seeing signs of a cooling trend by Sunday. Saturday`s highs will be in the 90s with heat indices as high as the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. As with previous days, any convection will result in cooler temperatures and lower heat indices. Saturday night`s lows will be in the 70s; spots west of I-71 in addition to urban areas such as Cleveland and Erie will likely remain in the upper 70s. Sunday`s highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with lower 90s more likely in NW OH. Sunday`s heat indices will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. By Sunday night, lows will be in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will build into the area behind the cold front Monday and expect a brief break from heat with highs in the 80s. NW PA and the higher elevations of NE OH and NW PA will be several degrees cooler in the upper 70s. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday as a ridge builds back into the region, but do not anticipate oppressive heat since dew points will remain in the lower 60s. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in the synoptic setup for the remainder of the long term period, but shower and thunderstorm chances may increase as early as Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area. High pressure should quickly follow the front, so expect dry weather for Thursday. Highs will be in the 80s (possibly 90s near the I-75 corridor) Wednesday and post-frontal temps Thursday afternoon will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Some clouds from old convection are moving through the area this morning with mid-level clouds across North Central and Northeast Ohio and higher cirrus here and there elsewhere. The mid-level clouds will continue to fade with time early this morning. In portions of NW OH and perhaps favored valley areas of NE OH/NW PA, some fog should develop with a decoupling atmosphere toward dawn and have some brief fog mentions through 13z. Another warm and unstable day will allow for some iso/sct storms with the edges of the airspace being the most favored once again with TS mentions in the vicinity of KTOL, KFDY, and KYNG. Afternoon cumulus should also fill in across the region. Any shower/storm threat and cumulus should fade with sunset and have conditions returns to just high clouds and light winds. Winds will favor a west to northwest direction for the day. Outlook...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage Sunday afternoon with non-VFR conditions possible. && .MARINE... Outside of locally higher winds/waves in any afternoon/evening thunderstorms, quiet marine conditions are anticipated through the daytime hours Saturday. By Saturday night into Sunday, southwest winds will likely ramp up as a cold front approaches from the west and wind speeds will reach 15 to 20 knots. May need Small Craft Advisories if winds continue to trend higher. Winds should diminish to 15 knots or less and become west/northwest Sunday evening into Sunday night with variable winds 10 knots or less likely Monday. On Tuesday, winds may increase to 10 to 15 knots as another cold front approaches from the west.&& && .CLIMATE... The records for Friday, June 21 through Sunday, June 23 are listed below for our official climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933) 06-22 99(1988) 95(1988) 98(1988) 97(1988) 97(1933) 94(1988) 06-23 96(1911) 91(1964) 94(1948) 94(1923) 94(1943) 92(1964) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ001>003. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Iverson/Sullivan SHORT TERM...Maines LONG TERM...Maines AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Maines CLIMATE...CLE