397
FXUS61 KCLE 261402
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1002 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves southeast across the area this afternoon.
High pressure will return on Thursday and Friday before another
low pressure system impacts the area on Saturday. High pressure
builds back in Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9:45 AM Update...
Made major adjustments to PoPs to account for the latest model
guidance. No rain expected through about 15Z before the area of
showers and thunderstorms over OH/IN moves in from the south.
More substantial development of thunderstorms is expected after
17Z ahead of a cold front that is approaching from the
northwest. SPC has expanded the marginal risk area to include our
entire forecast area and the slight has expanded westward to
include the southeast half of the area from Meadville, PA to
south of Cleveland to Mansfield, OH.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure centered over southern Quebec will continue to move
east moving a strong cold front across the area this afternoon
into the evening. Currently the area lies within the warm sector
of the low, allowing for moisture content to gradually increase
along with temperatures as lows this morning have only dropped
into the 70s. This afternoon, as the front approaches from the
west, a shortwave trough will push south across the region. This
mid-level energy coupled with ideal placement in the right
entrance region of the upper level jet will provide enhanced
support through the atmosphere for storm development. At the low
levels, strong frontogenetic forcing coupled with modeled MUCAPE
values near 2000 J/kg and wind shear values between 20-25 knots will
assist in sustaining updrafts. The best timing of all these
ingredient to come together and create strong to severe storms
will be between 17-22Z. To highlight this threat, SPC has issued
a Day 1 Marginal Risk for severe weather along a line extending
from Cleveland, OH to Bucyrus, OH and areas east. The primary
hazard concerns are strong, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
WPC has also issued a Day 1 Marginal Risk ERO for the potential
of heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns in areas that
receive multiple rounds of rain. High temperatures today will
climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. Areas that receive
precipitation will quickly cool, so the areas that should
receive the warmest temperatures will be across the eastern
counties.

The cold front will continue to track to the southeast of the
area tonight allowing for high pressure to begin to build east
and all showers and thunderstorms to end by Thursday morning.
High pressure will remain dominant on Thursday, keeping
conditions dry with mostly sunny skies returning. Overnight lows
will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s with slightly cooler highs
on Thursday as temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period will start quiet on Thursday night
with high pressure across the region with a clear, dry air mass and
northwest flow aloft. Temperatures should take a good diurnal nose
dive with lows in the 50s and even some upper 40s, if full
decoupling occurs. The surface high will shift east for Friday and a
warm front will lift north across the area and allow for southerly
return flow and moisture advecting back into the region. High
temperatures will be back around normal into the 80s. Still do not
believe that any rain will get going during the daytime hours with
dew points not getting into the 60s until late afternoon. By Friday
night, some scattered showers and storms will be possible with the
isentropic lift and the increasing moisture across the region. In
addition, a cold front will move closer to the area and some showers
and storms could start arriving from the northwest. Saturday and
Saturday night should have widespread showers and storms with the
cold front moving through the area and will go with categorical
PoPs, as the pattern has repeated for several cycles. There could be
some conditional threat, depending on how unstable the atmosphere is
ahead of the main front. If showers and storms have large coverage
on Friday night into Saturday, then temperatures may be more subdued
and left a more generic shower and storm threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday and Monday appear quiet with high pressure across the region
behind a cold front. Temperatures will be below normal both days
with highs mostly in the 70s, as a dry air mass in northwest flow
takes over. A reinforcing cold front will cross the area on Monday
morning and there could be some stray showers on Sunday night with
that. However, most of the ensemble members keep the area dry and
will retain the persistence forecast with no PoPs. High pressure
shifts east for Tuesday and the upper ridge enters. This will allow
for temperatures to surge back into the 80s and better moisture
returns to the region. A low pressure system over the Upper Midwest
will extend a cold front toward the area on Tuesday night and have
some lightly increasing PoPs through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue over the next few hours
before showers and thunderstorms begin to impact the far western
terminals late this morning, ultimately becoming more widespread
and pushing east this afternoon into the evening as a cold front
pushes through. Conditions are expected to diminish to MVFR and
possibly IFR within these showers and thunderstorms as heavy
rain is expected. Opted to handle these diminished conditions in
TEMPOs for all terminals, but will need to continue to monitor
how well organized these storms become. Primary concerns with
thunderstorms today will be locally strong winds and large
hail. As the aforementioned cold front pushes east tonight,
conditions should rebound to widespread VFR, although some areas
across the eastern counties may see patchy fog develop, but
with low confidence have opted to not include in this TAF.

Winds from the southwest at 5-10 knots will persist through
today before becoming light and variable after sunset. By the
end of the period, winds will gain a more northerly component
and gradually increase to 5-10 knots. Locally higher winds are
possible today in stronger thunderstorms that develop and
impact terminals.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the lake today. Southwest flow will briefly
increase during the daytime hours before flow shifts to the
northwest tonight. Overall, the onshore flow tonight into Thursday
appears weak and will likely not generate enough waves to merit any
marine headlines. Flow will become lighter and northerly with high
pressure on Thursday. Southeast flow returns to the lake on Friday
with a warm front lifting across the region, as high pressure moves
east. A cold front will cross the lake on Saturday. Southwest flow
will increase ahead of the front and could approach the need for a
headline. The front will cross the lake by Sunday and northwest flow
will take over the basin. This onshore flow should be stronger than
tonight`s and there could be some notable wave generation to allow
for at least a moderate swimming risk. High pressure will build into
the region early next week and reduce the winds on the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Sefcovic