666
FXUS61 KCLE 301105
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
705 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this morning. High
pressure will build behind the cold front for Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday afternoon. A warm front will lift north along
the back side of high pressure on Tuesday. A cold front will
approach the area for Wednesday and cross on Wednesday night.
This front will hang up in the Ohio Valley for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds and isolated convection are pushing east of the area this
morning. There will be a batch of brief clearing before another
round of clouds comes into the region with the cold front and
some more notable northwest winds enter the region with gusts of
25 to 30 mph.

Previous Discussion...
A boundary stretches along the Ohio/Michigan border and across
Lake Erie in western New York. This boundary is triggering some
showers and isolated storms over Lake Erie early this morning.
For now, most of the convection is moving into western New York,
but expect more coverage in showers as the boundary reaches the
Ohio and Pennsylvania shorelines. Have PoPs increasing over the
next several hours for this feature.

The main cold front remains well to the north across central
Lower Michigan. This front should make it into the forecast area
by about daybreak. Winds will shift solidly to the northwest
with increasing gusts of 25-30 mph or so. Additional clouds will
move into the region with the front. These clouds along with
cold air advection with the front will limit the daytime high
temperatures today and it may just be a flat line around 70
degrees. For many locations, high temperatures for the calendar
day already occurred at midnight and will not return to those
values this afternoon. Some isolated showers could pop up in NE
OH and NW PA late this afternoon with the final push of the
front, but confidence is low at this time.

High pressure will build into the region tonight and there will
be a dry, clearing trend. Temperatures will fall considerably
into the 50s throughout and perhaps the upper 40s, especially
where clouds can clear faster and some decoupling can occur.
This system will persist into Monday with dry and clear
conditions. High temperatures will be below normal for the first
day of July with mid 70s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge aloft builds from the western Great Lakes and vicinity
and eventually crests E`ward over our region during the Monday
night through Tuesday time period. Simultaneously, the surface
portion of the ridge exits slowly E`ward from the Lake Erie
region and Upper OH Valley. Stabilizing subsidence accompanying
the ridge will allow fair weather to persist in northern OH and
NW PA. In NW PA, overnight lows are expected to range from the
upper 40`s in the interior valleys to the upper 50`s along the
Lake Erie shore around daybreak Tuesday. Northern OH is expected
to have lows reach mainly the lower 50`s to lower 60`s around
daybreak Tuesday. Late afternoon highs on Tuesday are expected
to reach the upper 70`s to mid 80`s due, in part to
strengthening synoptic-scale WAA along the western flank of the
low-level ridge. The coolest highs are expected in the higher
terrain of NW PA and within several miles of Lake Erie since
sufficient daytime heating of surrounding land and a weak
synoptic MSLP gradient will likely allow a lake breeze to occur
during the late morning through early evening hours.

The aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft exits E`ward and
is followed by cyclonic W`erly flow aloft, embedded shortwave
disturbances, and surface troughing Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. In addition, a warm front is still poised to sweep N`ward
through our CWA Tuesday night and usher-in a much warmer/more humid
air mass originating over the Gulf of Mexico. A cool front is still
expected to sweep SE`ward through northern OH and NW PA Wednesday
night and usher-in a slightly-cooler and less humid air mass. The
lifting mechanisms (i.e. shortwave disturbances/attendant surface
trough axes and fronts) are expected to release weak to moderate
instability, including elevated instability, and trigger periodic
showers/thunderstorms, especially Wednesday morning through
Wednesday night. Model guidance continues to depict a favorable
environment for a lake breeze to occur during the late morning
through early evening hours of Wednesday, along/near the Lake Erie
shore from NE`ern Cuyahoga County to Erie County, PA. The lake
breeze front is also expected to act as a focus for shower/storm
initiation. Moderate to strong deep layer bulk shear will allow
convection to be organized. Severe thunderstorms are possible given
the projected thermodynamic/kinematic environment, especially
Wednesday afternoon through early evening, when daytime heating of
the warm/moist sector boundary layer will allow MUCAPE to be
maximized. Overnight lows are forecast to reach mainly the lower
60`s to lower 70`s Tuesday night and Wednesday night, respectively.
The combination of some daytime heating and low-level WAA will allow
highs to reach mainly the mid 80`s to lower 90`s during the late
afternoon on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Periodic showers/thunderstorms are expected on Thursday (the 4th of
July) through Saturday as SW`erly to W`erly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave disturbances affect the Lake Erie region and Upper OH
Valley, net surface troughing persists, and the aforementioned front
wavers generally south-to-north and vice versa over/near our area in
response to the shortwave trough passages. The front will separate a
warmer/more humid air mass to the south from a slightly-cooler/less
humid air mass to the north. At least moderate deep layer bulk shear
and weak to moderate instability belonging to parcels rooted in the
low-level atmosphere will allow convection to be organized and
potentially strong to severe at times. Daily afternoon highs are
expected to reach mainly the 80`s on Thursday through Saturday.
Overnight lows are expected to reach the 60`s to lower 70`s around
daybreak Friday and Saturday, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
An area of MVFR ceilings and isolated showers continues east
across NE OH and NW PA this morning. There will remain a brief
window for non-VFR ceilings in the immediate term. The main
cold front has passed KTOL and will continue southeast to help
clear this bath of clouds. Behind the front some MVFR to low VFR
level clouds will spread into the region. Believe that KCLE and
KERI will have the best window of MVFR ceilings with some help
from Lake Erie. In Northwest Ohio, clouds may remain scattered
enough to just stay at VFR with some hit and miss low VFR
clouds. Northwest winds will increase behind the front with
gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range. Some spotty showers could try to
reform in the afternoon in NE OH and NW PA with the upper trough
axis moving through, but confidence is low at this time.
Ceilings will trend toward VFR later in the TAF period as high
pressure builds into the region and cloud will completely clear
overnight. Winds will relax with sunset this evening and trend
more northerly with time.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 8 AM EDT this morning to 8 AM
this Monday for nearshore waters from Avon Point to Ripley. A
corresponding Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for the lakeshore
from Cuyahoga County to Erie County, PA. Farther west, a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM this Monday for
nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point. Accordingly, a Beach
Hazards Statement is in effect for the Lorain County shore during
the same time period.

A cold front continues sweeping SE`ward across Lake Erie this
morning and should clear the lake by about daybreak. The front`s
passage will cause SW`erly winds around 10 to 15 knots to veer to
NW`erly as waves remain 3 feet or less through daybreak this
morning. Behind the front, a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest
through Tuesday. This ridge will be accompanied by NW`erly to N`erly
winds around 10 to 20 knots later this morning through daybreak
Monday. In response to these winds, waves are expected to remain 3
feet or less in the western basin and build to as large as 3 to 5
feet farther east later this morning through tonight. Primarily
N`erly to E`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots on Monday are expected
to veer to SE`erly Monday night as waves subside to 3 feet or less.
The SE`erly winds are expected to give way to a lake breeze (i.e
onshore flow) around 5 to 15 knots late Tuesday morning through
early evening as waves remain 3 feet or less.

SE`erly winds are forecast to veer to S`erly and freshen to 10 to 20
knots Tuesday night as the ridge exits E`ward and a warm front
sweeps N`ward across Lake Erie. Waves remain 3 feet or less in
nearshore U.S. waters and build to as large as 4 feet in open U.S.
waters. S`erly to SW`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots on Wednesday
veer to W`erly and ease to 5 to 15 knots with the E`ward passage of
a cold front Wednesday night. Waves trend 3 feet or less, but
occasional 4 footers are expected in open U.S. waters on Wednesday.
Behind the cool front, another ridge builds from the western Great
Lakes. This ridge is expected to be accompanied by variable winds
around 5 to 10 knots on Thursday as waves subside to 2 feet or
less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Monday
     morning for OHZ010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday
     for LEZ145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Jaszka