960
FXUS61 KCLE 300616
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
216 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this morning. High
pressure will build behind the cold front for Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday afternoon. A warm front will lift north along
the back side of high pressure on Tuesday. A cold front will
approach the area for Wednesday and cross on Wednesday night.
This front will hang up in the Ohio Valley for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A boundary stretches along the Ohio/Michigan border and across
Lake Erie in western New York. This boundary is triggering some
showers and isolated storms over Lake Erie early this morning.
For now, most of the convection is moving into western New York,
but expect more coverage in showers as the boundary reaches the
Ohio and Pennsylvania shorelines. Have PoPs increasing over the
next several hours for this feature.

The main cold front remains well to the north across central
Lower Michigan. This front should make it into the forecast area
by about daybreak. Winds will shift solidly to the northwest
with increasing gusts of 25-30 mph or so. Additional clouds will
move into the region with the front. These clouds along with
cold air advection with the front will limit the daytime high
temperatures today and it may just be a flat line around 70
degrees. For many locations, high temperatures for the calendar
day already occurred at midnight and will not return to those
values this afternoon. Some isolated showers could pop up in NE
OH and NW PA late this afternoon with the final push of the
front, but confidence is low at this time.

High pressure will build into the region tonight and there will
be a dry, clearing trend. Temperatures will fall considerably
into the 50s throughout and perhaps the upper 40s, especially
where clouds can clear faster and some decoupling can occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Regions will
bring a very nice weather day on Monday with sunshine and low
humidity. High temps will continue to be below average in the
lower to middle 70s for Monday afternoon. The high pressure
system will move eastward towards New England on Tuesday and a
southerly flow will return. The humidity and warmer temperatures
will also come back starting Tuesday. High temps will be back in
the lower to middle 80s areawide. NWOH and the Cleveland metro
area may be back in the upper 80s and feeling summerlike by
Tuesday afternoon. Dry weather is expected to start off the new
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next system to bring rainfall and unsettled weather will
arrive late Wednesday and Wednesday night. A weak cold front
will sag southward through the Great Lakes region Wednesday
afternoon and slowly push through northern Ohio and NWPA
Wednesday night. This will be our next chance for showers and
storms. Model guidance is showing that this frontal boundary
will become parallel with the mid and upper level flow by
Thursday of next week. This frontal boundary will likely stall
out from west to east across Ohio and may waffle around Thursday
into Friday. We will have to keep an eye on any mid level
impulses tracking through the westerly flow that may help
develop rounds of convection near this stalled front late in the
week. There is a signal for that kind of setup in the model
guidance. Temperatures will be near or above average through the
end of next week and feeling summery during the July 4th
Holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
A pre-frontal boundary stretches from north of KTOL across Lake
Erie into western New York. Some lower clouds and ceilings are
occurring near this boundary, along with some iso/sct showers
and iso TS, most of which is funneling into western NY. This
entire boundary is sagging south this morning and MVFR level
clouds and possibly full ceilings will spread into the terminals
through the morning hours. The shower threat is very limited to
NW PA and NE OH and have only vicinity shower mentions there.
The main cold front is still across central Lower Michigan and
will continue south this morning and will likely be bisecting
the airspace at daybreak. This feature will bring northwest flow
and more widespread MVFR ceilings to the region this morning.
Northwest winds will increase behind the front with gusts in the
20 to 25 kt range. Some spotty showers could try to reform in
the afternoon in NE OH and NW PA, but confidence is low at this
time. Ceilings will trend toward VFR later in the TAF period as
high pressure builds into the region. Winds will relax with
sunset this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move across Lake Erie late tonight. A wind
shift from the northwest will follow behind the frontal passage
late tonight into early Sunday morning. Northwest winds of 10
to 20 knots are expected Sunday and will make for choppy
conditions. Conditions may be near Small Craft criteria with
waves of 3-4 feet and moderate swim risk are possible for the
central and eastern lakeshore waterways. Winds will start to
decrease Sunday night as high pressure starts to build over the
Great Lakes. High pressure will remain in control of the weather
pattern Monday and Tuesday. Winds will become northeasterly by
Monday and winds veering around to the southeast on Tuesday.
The next week front is forecast to cross Lake Erie late
Wednesday or Wednesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Griffin