772
FXUS61 KCLE 240748
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
348 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will continue through Tuesday before a
low pressure centered over northern Quebec moves a warm front north
late Tuesday followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure
will return to the area for the end of the work week. Another low
pressure is expected to move through the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A surface trough lingering over the eastern half of the area
continues to develop scattered showers this morning. With a nearly
20 degree difference between the lake and 850 mb temperatures,
marginal lake induced instability has develop and allowed for a
corridor of showers and lake effect clouds to push south across the
area, primarily centered near Cleveland. Over the next few hours,
high pressure will continue to build east, ultimately drying out the
low levels and cutting off the precipitation. This high pressure
will remain dominant through tonight, allowing for widespread dry
conditions and mostly sunny skies. Highs today will climb into the
low 80s for western counties and upper 70s across eastern counties.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s.

By Tuesday morning, the aforementioned high pressure will shift east
towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast, allowing for a warm front associated
with a low over Ontario to move north across the area. This will
result in an increase of WAA across the area again. In addition, a
mid-level shortwave looks to move across northern Ohio Tuesday
morning which could support a decaying MCS moving into NW OH. With a
fairly stable airmass in place north of the warm front, showers and
storms should continue to decay into the area or should remain
elevated. Confidence in any of these lingering storms becoming
severe is low, however cannot rule out a rumble or two of thunder
and locally heavy rainfall. By Tuesday afternoon, a LLJ of 40+ knots
noses over the area which may assist the increasing WAA, synoptic
forcing, and low level moisture to create additional showers and
thunderstorms, although confidence is low. The evolution of these
storms for the first part of Tuesday will be critical in the
forecast during the short term period. To account for the potential
for severe weather, SPC has issued a Day 1 Marginal Risk of severe
weather and WPC has issued a Day 1 Marginal ERO across much of the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The Tuesday night into Wednesday forecast is a very conditional
shower and thunderstorm forecast for the region. The conditional
nature of the forecast will be on shower and storm development over
the upper Midwest on Monday night and the trajectory of any
activity. If the storm complex angles southeast toward the local
forecast area, then that could be an issue during the day on Tuesday
and wipe out the higher extent of instability across the region for
Tuesday night. There could be some recovery in this scenario, but it
would be limited with the poor timing on the diurnal cycle. An
alternative scenario is that storms angle west of the forecast area
and the atmosphere remains warm and unstable. This would allow for
other MCVs that develop on Tuesday to enter the region on Tuesday
night with an environment more sustaining for showers and storms,
potentially strong to severe. In the end, there is low confidence in
any particular scenario at this time and there will be more clarity
24 hours from now, as ongoing convection elsewhere will help dictate
which solutions are still in play. The final cold front will cross
the area on Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of the front, there could be
a window for additional showers and storms with intensity dependent
on the environment based on what occurs on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
With the front, temperatures and dew points will fall, clouds will
diminish, and winds will shift to the northwest, ending any rain
threat by Wednesday evening.

Thursday and Thursday night will be a return to quiet weather with
high pressure across the Great Lakes region with northwest flow
aloft. Temperatures will take a dip below normal with widespread 70s
and lows on Thursday night could take quite the tumble down into the
50s and even upper 40s, if generally clear skies and calm conditions
allow for decoupling to occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday appears to be a recovery day back to hot and humid across the
region with high pressure sliding east and a warm front lifting
across the area. Temperatures will reach widespread 80s and dew
points will recover back into the 60s by evening. Since it will take
some time for moisture to recover in the region, believe that most
of Friday will be dry and some glancing showers/storms could enter
on Friday night as debris convection from areas further west. An
upper trough and surface cold front will enter the area on Saturday
and allow for showers and storms across the forecast area and have
PoPs ticking back up to mid-chance to likely. There could be some
concern for strong to severe convection, if timing remains favorable
during the peak heating hours. The front will move out on Sunday and
high pressure will build into the region allowing for dry conditions
and a trend to cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A surface trough lingering over the area has resulted in
northwest flow crossing Lake Erie and producing scattered lake
enhanced showers. Confidence in the placement and timing and
these showers remains low so opted to keep any mention of
showers out at this point. The base of the lake enhanced clouds
are also hovering near MVFR conditions, which have the
potential to impact terminals along and east of I-71. Have opted
to handle this lowering of ceilings with a TEMPO over the next
couple hours. By this morning, all terminals should rebound to
VFR conditions and persist through the remainder of the TAF
period.

Northwest winds of 5-10 knots will persist through today before
becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
evening through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The northwest flow across the lake this morning is pretty marginal
with winds generally 15 kt or less (most are actually 10 kt or less)
and waves at reporting buoys are under 3 ft. Therefore, will cancel
the marine headlines early with some mention for 2 to 4 ft waves
through the morning hours. High pressure across the region will
allow for flow to become variable today on the lake. High pressure
will move east for Tuesday and return flow across the lake will be
with increasing southwest flow and there could be a window for a
Small Craft Advisory headline if mixing allows for winds to get to
20 kt on the lake. Offshore flow during the daytime hours on Tuesday
would allow for a wind only Small Craft Advisory. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will be possible on the lake on Tuesday into
Wednesday. A cold front will cross the lake on Wednesday and flow
will become northwest. The pressure gradient over the lake does not
look impressive enough to have substantial northwest flow to allow
for a great increase in waves. Flow will become variable with high
pressure on Thursday. Southeast flow returns to the lake on Friday
with a warm front lifting across the region.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Sefcovic