Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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751 FXUS61 KCLE 210015 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 815 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge builds west through the rest of this week. Low pressure develops over the Upper Midwest Saturday before moving into the Great Lakes region. This low will drag a cold front southeast across the region on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 8:15 PM Update: Scattered convection continues across Northwest OH. Stronger cores have produced sub-severe hail along with localized wind damage due to microbursts. Storms have been slow-moving with locally heavy rain as well. We should see activity begin to weaken over the next 1-2 hours, ending the threat. Made minor tweaks to POPs to reflect trends. Previous Discussion: Pop-up thunderstorms mainly along the I-75 corridor and the Lake Erie lakeshore will continue for the next few hours under an unseasonably warm and unstable airmass. Strong to severe limits are possible with any storm with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts. Moist atmosphere with above average PWATs will continue the threat for heavy rainfall and instances of flooding in any persistent and slow moving storms. Cold front stalls just south of the lakeshore overnight tonight before becoming stationary and draped across Lake Erie through Friday. We`ll remain warm and unstable once again tomorrow so there remains the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across inland sites tomorrow afternoon along this boundary. Warm overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night settle in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another hot day tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and heat indices approaching 100. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Expect zonal flow to develop aloft Saturday with a warm front to the north of Lake Erie as low pressure lifting northeast across the Upper Midwest begins to push a cold front towards the CWA. Similar to previous days, there could be some scattered showers primarily across NE OH and NW PA where there will be convergence/forcing due to a lake breeze boundary during the afternoon. There will still be a decent amount of moisture/buoyancy, so any thunderstorms that develop could produce stronger downbursts. The weather pattern begins to shift Sunday as the aforementioned cold front approaches from the west and crosses the CWA at some point during the day. This will provide a chance of more widespread and organized convection and there may be potential for stronger storms due to enhanced wind shear ahead of the front. Still looking like damaging wind gusts as the main threat with perhaps large hail, but there could be enough helicity in place for a low-end tornado risk. Hot weather will continue through the weekend, but should start seeing signs of a cooling trend by Sunday. Saturday`s highs will be in the 90s with heat indices as high as the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. As with previous days, any convection will result in cooler temperatures and lower heat indices. Saturday night`s lows will be in the 70s; spots west of I-71 in addition to urban areas such as Cleveland and Erie will likely remain in the upper 70s. Sunday`s highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with lower 90s more likely in NW OH. Sunday`s heat indices will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. By Sunday night, lows will be in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will build into the area behind the cold front Monday and expect a brief break from heat with highs in the 80s. NW PA and the higher elevations of NE OH and NW PA will be several degrees cooler in the upper 70s. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday as a ridge builds back into the region, but do not anticipate oppressive heat since dew points will remain in the lower 60s. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in the synoptic setup for the remainder of the long term period, but shower and thunderstorm chances may increase as early as Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area. High pressure should quickly follow the front, so expect dry weather for Thursday. Highs will be in the 80s (possibly 90s near the I-75 corridor) Wednesday and post-frontal temps Thursday afternoon will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Scattered thunderstorms ongoing across Northwest and North Central OH are capable of producing frequent lightning and locally strong wind gusts to 40 knots. Activity will gradually subside through the evening. TOL most likely to be impacted, but FDY and perhaps MFD will need monitored as well. Otherwise, could see a bit of fog/mist again very early Friday morning. Like this morning, impacts to TAF sites should generally limited but did include some 4-6SM mist at a few sites for a brief window to highlight the potential. Future forecasts may be able to better pin down where (or if) lower vsby may be possible. Another day with isolated to scattered convection on Friday, though the focus will likely be across Northwest OH and then across interior eastern OH, with cooler northerly winds keeping activity from roughly MFD-CAK-YNG-GKJ points south. Used some VCSH and VCTS mentions to indicate the window where convection appears most likely near our western and southern sites. Confidence in storms directly impacting TAF sites is low, less than 50% at all, but is relatively higher (20-40%) at TOL, FDY, MFD, CAK and YNG. Lowest risk (<15%) is at CLE and ERI. Winds become light and variable overnight tonight. Can`t rule out patchy fog developing again tonight across eastern terminals. On Friday winds turn northwesterly while remaining below 10 knots. Outlook...More organized thunderstorms with non-VFR conditions possible Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... Outside of locally higher winds/waves in any afternoon/evening thunderstorms, quiet marine conditions are anticipated through the daytime hours Saturday. By Saturday night into Sunday, southwest winds will likely ramp up as a cold front approaches from the west and wind speeds will reach 15 to 20 knots. May need Small Craft Advisories if winds continue to trend higher. Winds should diminish to 15 knots or less and become west/northwest Sunday evening into Sunday night with variable winds 10 knots or less likely Monday. On Tuesday, winds may increase to 10 to 15 knots as another cold front approaches from the west.&& .CLIMATE... A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week. Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on several days. The records for Thursday, June 20 to Sunday, June 23 are listed below for our official climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-20 98(1953) 94(1988) 96(1988) 95(1933) 95(1933) 92(2016) 06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933) 06-22 99(1988) 95(1988) 98(1988) 97(1988) 97(1933) 94(1988) 06-23 96(1911) 91(1964) 94(1948) 94(1923) 94(1943) 92(1964) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ001>003. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Iverson/Sullivan SHORT TERM...Maines LONG TERM...Maines AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Maines CLIMATE...