203
FXUS64 KCRP 250849
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

The short term is continuing to remain on track from the previous
forecast. A mid to upper level trough is expected to continue
digging to south as it progresses eastwards. This will send a cold
front through the region this evening providing enough lift for a
low chance of showers and thunderstorms similar to what we seen
yesterday. Behind this front, we will dry out bringing slightly
pleasant conditions for the remainder of the short term. Highs
Thursday will be a tad cooler with upper 80s to lower 90s across
the CWA with lows in the upper 60s by Thursday night. Tropical
Storm Helene developed out in the Gulf yesterday and is
forecasted to become a major hurricane. This is expected to cause
some impacts to South Texas like increased seas, the rip current
risk, as well as causing some hazardous marine conditions
Thursday. The increased seas will likely necessitate a Small Craft
Advisory for portions of our Gulf waters tomorrow.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing risk of rip currents and potential coastal flooding
late this week as Tropical Storm Helene moves across the Gulf

Sunny skies and warm temperatures will dominate the forecast through
the middle of next week. Highs will generally range from 85 along
the coast to around 95 degrees out west. Much drier air will keep us
a lot more comfortable, even with our sunny skies and warm
temperatures, with heat index values below 100 (finally!). Low
temperatures will even dip into the 60s, leading to some pleasant
early mornings.

The only significant weather during the long term forecast will be
Tropical Storm Helene. TS Helene is expected to become a hurricane
some time today as it approaches the Yucatan. It could become a
major hurricane as it approaches the Florida Big Bend. While TS
Helene is not expected to directly impact the Middle Texas Coast,
long period swell will arrive late this week, increasing the risk of
rip currents, minor coastal flooding, and hazardous seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Currently, a broken line of showers and storms exist just south of
Austin, TX to portions of Southeast Texas. Confidence is low on this
activity persisting into South Texas but will need to keep a close
eye on any amendments necessary, specifically for VCT. Low-level
moisture, light winds, and mostly clear skies outside of the
convection could lead to late overnight into early morning 09-14Z
IFR/MVFR ceilings and LIFR/IFR vsbys associated with fog. Expect
these conditions to mainly impact the inland Coastal Plains
(VCT/ALI) but could spread into CRP as well. Winds will remain
generally weak through the TAF period ahead of a cold front that
will push through 20-06Z and shift winds out of the north to
northeast. A broken line of showers/storms will likely accompany the
front and therefore included Prob30 mention at all sites within
their most likely time window of convection impacts. Thunderstorms
will also be possible but did not include in the TAFs at this time
due to lower confidence on the exact timing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Winds will remain mostly weak today before becoming moderate and
shifting north by Thursday as a cold front moves offshore. This
could lead to brief periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions. A
moderate northerly wind will continue on Thursday in the wake of
the cold front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger
over the coastal waters through Thursday morning before drier air
moves into the region. As Tropical Storm Helene moves north across
the Gulf, we could see hazardous marine conditions over the
weekend as increased swells arrive. For updates on tropical
cyclone development, visit hurricanes.gov.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  71  88  67 /  20  20  10   0
Victoria          96  69  91  62 /  40  10   0   0
Laredo            97  71  91  67 /  20  20   0   0
Alice             96  71  91  65 /  30  20  10   0
Rockport          94  73  92  70 /  30  30  10   0
Cotulla           98  69  93  65 /  20  10   0   0
Kingsville        94  71  89  66 /  30  20  10   0
Navy Corpus       89  75  87  73 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...EMF