Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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549 FXUS64 KCRP 200547 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1247 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 524 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Tropical Storm Alberto is continuing to better organize as it churns in the southwestern Gulf. Winds and rainfall varies greatly within each quadrant. Here`s the current information about Alberto: Location is about 305 miles south-southeast of Brownsville heading west-southwest at 9 MPH. Maximum sustained winds are 40 MPH and the minimum pressure is 995 MB. Alberto is expected to continue it`s current trajectory making landfall along the eastern coast of Mexico near Tampico early tomorrow morning. Precipitable water (PWAT) value as of the special 18Z balloon launch is 2.63" and may even approach 3 inches with our evening sounding as moisture continues to increase over the region. A flood watch remains in effect through midday tomorrow to account for these conditions. Current hazards that remain in effect below: Rainfall and Flooding: There remains uncertainty in rainfall amounts across the region, with expected totals varying significantly depending on the location of rain bands. Several inches have fallen over the region in the last 24 hours with some locations reporting over 5 inches thus far and more rain is expected. We anticipate an additional 2 to 7 inches of rain area-wide with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches through Friday. Tornadoes: A few tornadoes warnings have already gone out throughout the day today. The tornado threat continues to be a hazard across the CWA as bands from Alberto continue to stream onshore. Wind: The disturbances circulation is getting better organized and is expected to continue this until landfall, with strong winds extending up to 415 miles from the center. Local observations recorded gusts up around 56 mph near Kingsville. Coastal counties may see winds up to 45 MPH tonight. Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding is ongoing, with numerous reports of water encroaching on dunes and roadways. This flooding is expected to persist through at least Thursday and a Coastal Flood Warning is in effect through 00Z Friday, as high tide levels are expected to remain between 2-3 feet. The risk of rip currents remains high and the Rip Current Risk advisory has been extended through midday Friday due to slow-to-subside long-period swells. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 524 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 As Conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week, another system could bring more rain over the weekend. The early part of next week looks drier as upper-level ridging takes hold. Continue to monitor updates from the National Weather Service for the latest information. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Numerous showers and occasional storms will continue across South Texas teminals mainly south and west of I-37 through the morning hours as T.S. Alberto approaches the coast of Mexico well to our south. Will carry prevailing MVFR conditions with tempo groups for strong wind gusts and IFR conditions in heavy rain through the morning. Expect showers with occasional thunder to persist through Thursday afternoon with MVFR ceilings with rain gradually tapering off by Thursday evening. Winds will gradually turn from more northerly direction to easterly through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 524 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Dangerous marine conditions continue this evening and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. Strong to very strong onshore winds are occurring. Wave heights of 14 feet up to around 19 feet across the coastal waters through Thursday. Deep moisture is still moving into the area with a 80-100% chance of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Rain chances trend down slightly for Friday, but increase again for the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 89 78 89 77 / 80 70 70 30 Victoria 89 75 90 74 / 60 20 50 10 Laredo 88 76 90 75 / 80 50 80 30 Alice 89 76 91 74 / 70 50 70 20 Rockport 92 81 92 81 / 70 70 70 40 Cotulla 90 76 93 76 / 70 30 50 10 Kingsville 89 77 90 76 / 80 70 80 40 Navy Corpus 89 82 90 82 / 80 80 80 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ242>247-342>347-442-443-447. Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ245-342>345- 347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...PH/83 LONG TERM....PH/83 AVIATION...JM/75