114
FXUS64 KCRP 170522
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Moderate to heavy showers with an occasional thunderstorm have
moved over the Brush Country continuing westward in association
with an early strong storm outflow. The Brush Country is an
untapped area of instability but weak lapse rates around 5-6 C/km
from the KCRP 12Z sounding likely prohibits strong updrafts and
therefore thunderstorms. This activity will continue west-
northwest through the afternoon hours before waning into the
evening as stability increases. Skies will become mostly clear
across South Texas and low-level moisture will allow for a medium
chance of fog development over the Victoria Crossroads.

Although mid-upper level ridging will increase tonight into
Tuesday and lead to drier northwesterly flow, moist low-level flow
along with PVA from 850-700mb will stay intact over the southern
half of the CWA (mainly south and west of I-37). We`ll keep a low
15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms over the aforementioned
area through the day on Tuesday with PWATs around 2.0". However,
strong downdrafts from heavy showers may cause an outflow
boundary that acts as a lifting mechanism for other cells to
develop.

Again, once we lose surface heating and stability increases
Tuesday night, rain chances will quickly diminish. Lows tonight
and Tuesday night range from the mid to upper 70s with highs on
Tuesday in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will peak around
105 in areas unfortunate to miss out on any rain/sky cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Morning and afternoon showers and storms possible (~30%) along
  the Coastal Bend much of the week

- Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts through Friday

Ample moisture will remain in place across at least the southern
half of the Coastal Bend through at least Thursday and potentially
into the weekend as well. The GFS and its ensembles are drier than
almost all other guidance, so throwing out that guidance, the rest
are more aggressive with PWATs generally >2 inches through Thursday
and then a little drier heading into the weekend. Lingering surface
boundaries may still be in the area, but even if not, the
combination of high moisture and ample instability, along with the
sea breeze, should be more than enough to trigger at least a few
showers and storms each day through Thursday and potentially into
the weekend, though coverage would likely be less Friday and
beyond as the best moisture leaves the area.

Elsewhere, ridging will largely dominate with mostly benign weather
conditions. The combination of warmer temperatures and higher
dewpoints will continue to pose a threat as heat index values climb
back into the 105-114 range. Heat Advisories may be required, with
the warmest days expected to be Wednesday through Friday. The
HeatRisk will be at Moderate to Major levels through the end of the
work week. Therefore, heat related impacts will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Tonight expect a transition to MVFR to visibilities to begin
building in across the eastern TAF sites as low level moisture
continues to filter in behind southeasterly flow. Periods of IFR
to LIFR conditions will be possible at sites ALI and VCT around
09Z due relatively light winds under clear skies. This is expected
to last through 13Z before transitioning to VFR. VFR conditions
will be expected elsewhere. Similar to Monday, theres a low
(10-30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop in the
afternoon into the evening hours Tuesday along the southern
portions of the area from LRD to CRP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Onshore flow will strengthen slightly to weak to moderate through
next weekend. There is a low to medium (15-35%) chance of showers
and thunderstorms daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  91  77  92 /  10  20   0  30
Victoria          74  95  74  94 /   0   0   0  20
Laredo            75  93  77  95 /  20  20   0  10
Alice             74  93  75  95 /   0  30   0  20
Rockport          79  90  79  92 /  10  20   0  20
Cotulla           75  96  77  97 /   0  10   0  10
Kingsville        74  92  75  93 /  10  30   0  30
Navy Corpus       79  87  81  88 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF
LONG TERM....CLM
AVIATION...NP/92