Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
053 FXUS64 KCRP 121146 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 646 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Key Messages: - Tropical funnel clouds remain possible today - Low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms today, decreasing to a low (20%) chance on Thursday A mid to upper level trough extending from our northeast will produce local bands of positive vorticity advection and in combination of PWATs near 2.0" (>75th percentile), lead to a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms. Greatest chances over the Victoria Crossroads due to greater instability and a weaker cap. The light winds generally less than 15 knots from the surface to 700mb and abundant moisture will create a favorable environment once again for tropical funnel clouds. An SPS has been issued along the Coastal Bend through this afternoon for this potential. Highs today and Thursday will range from around 90 along the coast to around 100 along the Rio Grande. A few upper level clouds will linger as a 50-60 knot upper jet spreads drapes over South Texas. Subsidence develops aloft tonight as the trough shifts southeast and an upper ridge extends into Texas from Mexico, causing northeasterly to northwesterly flow aloft. Lows tonight range from the mid 70s over the inland Coastal Plains to around 80 along the coast and Rio Grande. Kept a low chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, mainly attributed to the afternoon seabreeze and remnant vorticity bands of a weak shortwave over the Gulf being able to squeeze a few cells out of the above normal moisture atmosphere. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Key Messages: - Dangerous heat returns early next week - Increasing moisture and rain chances next week Once again, things have remained on track with the long term forecast. Rain chances will remain low through the end of the week and into the weekend. Rain chances will start to increase once again early next week as an inverted trough brings deep tropical moisture over the CWA (PWATs could exceed 2.5"). The low to moderate rain chances will be focused along and east of the Coastal Plains early in the week and before some low chances of rain makes its way to the Rio Grande Plains by the middle of the week. As previously mentioned, we`ll continue to monitor the Gulf for tropical development as there is a weak signal that a surface low could develop over the southwest Gulf early next week. It is still way to early to determine if this will be a significant threat to our area, but it does look like it could bring us some rain. Moisture and temperatures will increase through the weekend, bringing back heat-related impacts to South Texas. Heat Advisories may be needed by early next week as heat index values reach 110-114. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR conditions currently prevail across all terminal with a few showers over the northern Brush Country, dissipating as they move south-southeastward. Brief MVFR ceilings may accompany these decaying showers as they move near COT and ALI. Patchy fog early this morning for the next two hours over ALI/VCT, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period. VCSH has been mentioned across all sites as moisture remains well above normal and low pressure extends from the northeast. Thunderstorms will also be possible later today but confidence is too low to include VCTS at this time. The Victoria Crossroads has the greatest chance of seeing thunderstorms this afternoon. Winds will remain light through the period, becoming variable at night into the early morning hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Weak to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through the weekend. Onshore flow will become more moderate next week. Deep tropical moisture will spread of the coastal waters, increasing rain chances to moderate by early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 79 94 76 / 20 20 20 0 Victoria 92 74 94 73 / 40 20 20 0 Laredo 102 80 100 77 / 10 10 10 0 Alice 97 77 96 74 / 20 20 20 0 Rockport 92 81 93 80 / 30 20 20 0 Cotulla 99 79 101 77 / 20 10 0 0 Kingsville 96 79 96 75 / 20 20 20 0 Navy Corpus 92 82 92 82 / 20 20 20 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF LONG TERM....LS AVIATION...EMF/94