Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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462 FXUS64 KCRP 240531 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate heat risk today and tomorrow - Low (20-30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow night The region is currently under the influence of an elongated mid- level high with ridging over the eastern CONUS and troughing over the Plains. The pattern over South Texas will remain quasi-zonal for most of the short term period until the aforementioned trough digs southward, sending a surface front south towards the coast that looks to arrive mid week but more on that in the long term discussion. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain low with a few showers currently on radar and PWAT`s from 1.20" out west to 1.70" across eastern portions of the region. Have decided to maintain low 20-30% chances for any storms but chances will increase as we transition into the long term period as the cold front slowly sags towards the coast. Surface temperatures today and tomorrow will top out in the mid 80s near the coast to the mid 90s inland with overnight lows ranging in the 70s. Heat Indices for both days in the afternoon look to be 100- 105 leading to minor/moderate risk for heat stress related impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Key Messages: - Cold front pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning - Increasing risk of rip currents and potential coastal flooding Thursday and Friday in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine A deep cut-off low will dip southward into the Mississippi Valley region and push a `cold` front across South Texas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It is worth noting that the NAM (typically better with shallow air masses) has a slower progression of the front and doesn`t pass completely through until midday Thursday. Whereas, the GFS/ECMWF are slightly faster with passage Wednesday night and the CMC is the fastest with FROPA Wednesday evening. All in all, have maintained a medium chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front Wednesday as moisture pools and PWATs near 2.0" with lingering low chances Wednesday night. Lower confidence on Wednesday night rain chances as the trend of a slower passage would prolong chances of precipitation. I wouldn`t be surprised if this trend continues we see an uptick in Wednesday night chances in future forecasts. Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will move quickly northward Wednesday through Thursday across the eastern Gulf of Mexico as its forecast to strengthen into a hurricane, reinforcing drier air in wake of the front over South Texas through the latter part of this week. This will lead to minimal rain chances through Saturday. In addition, daily max heat indices and temperatures will be limited to the 90s with low temperatures dropping into the 60s Thursday night and Friday night. Currently, Corpus Christi is forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s Friday morning. The last time we felt the 60s at the Corpus Christi airport was May, 18th. We`ll welcome the relief of drier air! Last but certainly not least, swell periods increase to over 10 seconds along with wave heights 4-6 feet. Although we have offshore flow, energy propagating from current PTC9 could lead to wave runup and increase the risks for coastal flooding and rip currents. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Overall thinking remains the same, as VFR conditions are expected to persist through much of the overnight hours. However, patchy fog may develop before sunrise, reducing VSBYs to MVFR levels across ALI and VCT. There is a slight chance VSBYs could briefly drop to IFR, though confidence in this is low. Brief periods of MVFR CIGs are also possible, but unlikely given the dry mid-level air. By late Tuesday morning and into the afternoon, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms moving east to west along the sea breeze. SHRA activity should decrease in coverage after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A generally weak onshore flow will persist through the middle of the week accompanied by a low to moderate chance for showers. Flow will become weak to moderate Wednesday and then moderate as it shifts northerly in response to a cold front Thursday. This may result in brief periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Rain chances then taper off behind the front with no mentionable PoP`s the remainder of the week. A developing tropical cyclone is forecast to enter into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the coming days and will result in increasing swells through the end of the week. Please visit hurricanes.gov for more information on tropical cyclone development. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 75 91 73 / 30 20 40 20 Victoria 94 72 94 68 / 30 20 40 10 Laredo 94 75 94 73 / 10 20 40 20 Alice 92 73 94 71 / 30 20 40 10 Rockport 92 77 92 74 / 30 30 40 20 Cotulla 97 75 96 73 / 20 20 30 10 Kingsville 91 75 93 72 / 30 20 40 10 Navy Corpus 88 79 89 77 / 30 30 40 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....EMF AVIATION...KRS/98