462
FXUS64 KCRP 240531
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate heat risk today and tomorrow
- Low (20-30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow
  night

The region is currently under the influence of an elongated mid-
level high with ridging over the eastern CONUS and troughing over
the Plains. The pattern over South Texas will remain quasi-zonal for
most of the short term period until the aforementioned trough digs
southward, sending a surface front south towards the coast that
looks to arrive mid week but more on that in the long term
discussion. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain low with a
few showers currently on radar and PWAT`s from 1.20" out west to
1.70" across eastern portions of the region. Have decided to
maintain low 20-30% chances for any storms but chances will increase
as we transition into the long term period as the cold front slowly
sags towards the coast.

Surface temperatures today and tomorrow will top out in the mid 80s
near the coast to the mid 90s inland with overnight lows ranging in
the 70s. Heat Indices for both days in the afternoon look to be 100-
105 leading to minor/moderate risk for heat stress related impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Key Messages:

- Cold front pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning

- Increasing risk of rip currents and potential coastal flooding
  Thursday and Friday in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone
  Nine

A deep cut-off low will dip southward into the Mississippi Valley
region and push a `cold` front across South Texas Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. It is worth noting that the NAM (typically
better with shallow air masses) has a slower progression of the
front and doesn`t pass completely through until midday Thursday.
Whereas, the GFS/ECMWF are slightly faster with passage Wednesday
night and the CMC is the fastest with FROPA Wednesday evening.
All in all, have maintained a medium chance (30-50%) of showers
and thunderstorms ahead of the front Wednesday as moisture pools
and PWATs near 2.0" with lingering low chances Wednesday night.
Lower confidence on Wednesday night rain chances as the trend of a
slower passage would prolong chances of precipitation. I wouldn`t
be surprised if this trend continues we see an uptick in
Wednesday night chances in future forecasts.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will move quickly northward Wednesday
through Thursday across the eastern Gulf of Mexico as its forecast
to strengthen into a hurricane, reinforcing drier air in wake of
the front over South Texas through the latter part of this week.
This will lead to minimal rain chances through Saturday. In
addition, daily max heat indices and temperatures will be limited
to the 90s with low temperatures dropping into the 60s Thursday
night and Friday night. Currently, Corpus Christi is forecast to
be in the mid to upper 60s Friday morning. The last time we felt
the 60s at the Corpus Christi airport was May, 18th. We`ll welcome
the relief of drier air!

Last but certainly not least, swell periods increase to over 10
seconds along with wave heights 4-6 feet. Although we have
offshore flow, energy propagating from current PTC9 could lead to
wave runup and increase the risks for coastal flooding and rip
currents.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Overall thinking remains the same, as VFR conditions are expected to
persist through much of the overnight hours. However, patchy fog may
develop before sunrise, reducing VSBYs to MVFR levels across ALI and
VCT. There is a slight chance VSBYs could briefly drop to IFR,
though confidence in this is low. Brief periods of MVFR CIGs are
also possible, but unlikely given the dry mid-level air. By late
Tuesday morning and into the afternoon, there is a chance of showers
and thunderstorms moving east to west along the sea breeze. SHRA
activity should decrease in coverage after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A generally weak onshore flow will persist through the middle of
the week accompanied by a low to moderate chance for showers. Flow
will become weak to moderate Wednesday and then moderate as it
shifts northerly in response to a cold front Thursday. This may
result in brief periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Rain
chances then taper off behind the front with no mentionable PoP`s
the remainder of the week. A developing tropical cyclone is
forecast to enter into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the
coming days and will result in increasing swells through the end
of the week. Please visit hurricanes.gov for more information on
tropical cyclone development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  75  91  73 /  30  20  40  20
Victoria          94  72  94  68 /  30  20  40  10
Laredo            94  75  94  73 /  10  20  40  20
Alice             92  73  94  71 /  30  20  40  10
Rockport          92  77  92  74 /  30  30  40  20
Cotulla           97  75  96  73 /  20  20  30  10
Kingsville        91  75  93  72 /  30  20  40  10
Navy Corpus       88  79  89  77 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...KRS/98