191
FXUS64 KCRP 221849
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
149 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Isolated showers continue this afternoon along a line from
Nueces/Kleberg Counties west to Webb County. No lightning has
occurred with any of the showers so far today, though an isolated
bolt cannot be ruled out. We should see a break in precipitation
this evening into early tonight before additional isolated showers
and storms develop late tonight into Sunday. These are associated
with the Tropical Disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, which has a
40% chance of development through the weekend.

The system remains rather disorganized and the vast majority of the
impacts will remain south of our region. We could possible see some
increased swells - in addition to the isolated showers/storms - but
the Lower Rio Grande Valley is where the heaviest rain will occur.

Elevated water levels continue today, but we are down to advisory
level tides throughout the Coastal Bend. The Coastal Flood Advisory
will continue through Sunday, along with the high risk of rip
currents.

Temperatures will continue to be near normal for this time of year
(upper 80s/low-90s) with heat indices getting back into the low
100s Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts.

- Minor coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents will likely
continue into early next week.

A mid to upper level high pressure is forecast to be across the
region Monday with a weak short wave tracking west around the
southern periphery of the high pressure. This will maintain a low to
medium (20-50%) chance of convection. The best chance will be across
the southern Coastal Bend to southern Rio Grande Plains due to
proximity to deeper moisture and the short wave. Rain chances
decrease Tuesday through Thursday with the ridge providing more
subsidence and drier mid/upper levels over S TX. There still remains
a low (<20%) chance of convection due to moisture in the lower
levels with PWATs ranging from 1.7-2.0 inches.

Models prog another inverted trough to approach S TX by the end of
the week, but differ on timing and amount of available moisture.
Will continue with a low (<20%) chance of convection into next
weekend.

A gradual warming trend combined with a humid airmass will lead to
increasing heat related impacts, especially by the end of the work
week and into next weekend. Heat indices could reach 110 in a few
spots Mon-Thu, but should generally be less than 110 most areas.
Heat indices of 110-114 become more widespread and last more than a
couple of hours by Friday with Heat Advisories possible.

The risk of rip currents will remain high and minor coastal flooding
will likely continue into next week, but is forecast to continue to
gradually subside.  The latest PETSS shows tide levels at Aransas
Pass up to 2ft MSL (1ft inundation) during times of high tide
through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period with
isolated to scattered showers around. Coverage of showers may
increase a bit late tonight into Sunday morning, though showers
would be brief. These could lead to periods of MVFR conditions
with lowered CIGS and reduced VIS. Cannot rule out some spotty fog
around KALI between 09-13Z. Generally light winds are forecast
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the weekend as a
disturbance passes through the Bay of Campeche. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight into tomorrow. Expect
mainly a weak to moderate onshore flow to persist Monday through Friday
of next week. There is a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and
thunderstorms Monday, followed by a low (15-25%) chance for showers
through mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  91  79  92 /  30  50  10  30
Victoria          75  91  76  92 /   0  30   0  30
Laredo            76  91  76  94 /  20  60  20  30
Alice             76  91  75  93 /  20  50  10  40
Rockport          80  91  81  92 /  30  40  10  30
Cotulla           77  93  78  95 /   0  30  10  10
Kingsville        77  91  78  92 /  40  60  10  50
Navy Corpus       81  89  82  89 /  50  50  20  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ245-342>347-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLM/93
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...CLM