Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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405 FXUS64 KCRP 192039 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 339 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Abundant moisture is currently in place over much of South Texas combined with low-level instability is resulting in scattered showers this afternoon. More showers are expected to fire up further west along the seabreeze and along any outflow boundaries from other storms in the region as shown on KCRP radar. Have increased chances for showers to around 25% for the rest of today and tomorrow. Overnight periods expected to be dry with streamer showers offshore that may push onshore during the morning hours. The Heat Advisory remains in place through early this evening with afternoon heat indices already reaching 110 in Kingsville and approaching 110 at other sites within the Heat Advisory. Showers have helped to push back against higher values but we still have a few hours of heating so not confident enough to cancel anything but will monitor for now. Surface temperatures tomorrow will be similar but should come in at least one degree cooler, so a Heat Advisory will likely not be needed but will let the overnight shift re-evaluate. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate Risk of heat-related impacts this weekend, minor to moderate risk next week Not much change from the last few previous forecast packages. Mid to upper level ridging will continue through the weekend before an upper trough digs across the Four Corners region early next week ejecting a cold front into Texas. Although ridging is expected this weekend, will hold on to low (15-25%) chances for rain each afternoon as sufficient low level moisture interacts with the sea breeze. While this front is expected to stall north of our CWA next week, moisture pooling up ahead of the stalled front will increase our rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday with a low to medium (20-45%) chance of widespread showers across the region. Near normal temperatures are expected tomorrow afternoon ranging from the lower to the upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain near normal with lows ranging front the lower to upper 70s. Coastal flooding will once again be a concern across the Gulf facing beaches of South Texas this weekend and into early next week. Models are showing 8 to 9 second swell periods returning to the region increasing water levels to 1.7-1.9 feet above mean sea level. If this verifies, there will be a low chance for coastal flooding with beach inundation up to 1 foot during times of high tide. Lastly, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of low pressure across the Northwest Caribbean. There is a medium (40%) chance of development over the next 7 days as this system drifts north-northwest towards the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Isolated to scattered showers moving north across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads, will lead to brief periods of MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected through the afternoon and evening across the east. MVFR CIGs along the Rio Grande Plains will lift to VFR levels, as well. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible once again late tonight into early Friday morning, mainly due to brief patchy fog from ALI to VCT, with ALI being the most likely to have reduced visibilities. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Weak to at times moderate onshore flow will continue into early next week. There is a moderate (up to 30-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected this weekend into next week. Low (15-25%) chances for rain this weekend will increase to a medium (30-60%) chance next week as a cold front stalls north of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 91 78 90 / 10 20 10 20 Victoria 75 95 73 94 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 78 96 77 96 / 10 10 0 10 Alice 77 95 76 92 / 0 20 0 30 Rockport 80 93 79 91 / 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 78 98 78 97 / 10 10 0 10 Kingsville 77 92 77 91 / 0 20 0 30 Navy Corpus 81 88 81 87 / 10 20 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>244. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF/80 LONG TERM....JCP/84 AVIATION...TE