Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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954 FXUS64 KCRP 182231 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 531 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Key Message: -Moderate Risk for heat related illness today and tomorrow After yesterdays storms, a quiet period replaces the weather pattern with a more summer like one. A mid-level trough continues to move east of our CWA today, allowing for ridging to take its place. A mid- level high will build over Mexico and will nose into Texas and the Plains during the short term period leading to mostly sunny conditions during daytime hours. Temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon will be very similar, topping out in the 90-100 degree range across South Texas. Heat Indices both days will range 100-105 degrees with a Moderate Risk for heat related illness that affects those sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Please take precautions to stay cool/hydrated and check up on others, and remember to look before you lock. Overnight lows will bottom out in the low to mid 70s each night with partly to mostly cloudy skies with light onshore winds. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Key Message: - Increasing risk of heat-related impacts next week The main concern in the long term is our increasing risk for heat- related impacts through the week. The combination of a nearly stationary upper level ridge and persist onshore flow at the surface will allow for increasing temperatures and heat indices. The forecast looks to be fairly dry over the next week despite increasing low level moisture as subsidence aloft dominates. However, if we want to be disappointed later on this week, we could say that a passing shortwave on Wed/Thu and a boundary stalling to our north could warrant some low-end PoPs but confidence is very low in that scenario. Back to the heat...temperatures each afternoon will settle into the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Heat indices on Monday will generally range from 105-109 west of I-37. Conditions worsen as we head into the middle of the week with heat indices climbing into the 110-114 range from Tuesday on. These conditions will promote a major to potentially extreme risk for heat- related impacts. There won`t be much relief at night as overnight lows are forecast to remain in the low 80s which would keep heat indices in the 90s across the Brush Country and along the Coastal Bend. Daily Heat Advisories will likely be needed with the potential for Excessive Heat Warnings late in the work week. WPC currently has a medium to high chance of heat indices exceeding 110 daily and a medium chance of us exceeding 115 by Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR conditions will continue this afternoon through evening before visibilities could become an issue tonight into tomorrow morning across the eastern sites. There is a medium chance for ALI and VCT to drop below 3SM tonight and a low to medium chance to drop below 1SM. Due to the low confidence, went with predominantly MVFR conditions with a tempo for IFR. The western sites should remain VFR all night. All sites will be VFR tomorrow morning with light winds throughout this TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Weak northeasterly flow veers back onshore tonight and persists through Sunday night increasing to moderate flow Monday. A generally moderate onshore flow will continue through much of the week. Periods of occasionally strong onshore flow is possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoon across the southern bays and nearshore waters. Otherwise, expect hot and dry conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 76 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 92 72 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 100 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 96 73 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 89 77 89 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 99 74 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 94 75 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 79 89 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....TC AVIATION...JCP/84