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000
FXUS64 KCRP 071124
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
624 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Key Messages:

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon over
  Victoria Crossroads.

The upper ridge axis over northeast Mexico into southwest Texas
will maintain a northwest flow aloft over south Texas through
Thursday. A subtle mid level vorticity maximum will move out of
south-central Texas into the Victoria Crossroads this afternoon.
Will show slight chance PoPs for the Victoria Crossroads this
afternoon.

The isolated convection should diminish by this evening over the
northeast part of the forecast area. But additional convection
will form over the higher terrain of northeast Mexico this
evening. This isolated activity could move southeast across the
Rio Grande into the western Brush Country overnight.

Convection is also expected to form over west Texas this evening.
Models depict there could be a leftover mesoscale convective
vortex (MCV) from this activity as it moves southeast across
central TX by Thursday morning. MLCAPE values are expected to be
above 3000 J/kg over the Victoria Crossroads Thursday afternoon as
this little disturbance approaches. HRRR model depicts 0-6 km
shear may increase to above 40 knots during the afternoon. There
will be an opportunity for some of these storms to become strong
to severe over the Victoria Crossroads. SPC has the northern
Coastal Bend to the Victoria Crossroads in a marginal risk for
severe storms for Thursday afternoon.

Went close to MOS guidance for highs over the period. Highs will
be a little warmer on Thursday with heat index values from 100 to
105 degrees Thursday afternoon from the Coastal Bend to the Brush
Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Key Messages:

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms into Thursday evening
  over Victoria Crossroads.

- Heat index values exceeding 105 degrees Friday and Saturday, and
  110 degrees Sunday through Wednesday next week.

In essence, no major changes to the inherited forecast where
required this morning. However, went ahead and added a period of
silent PoPs (<15% probability) for Thursday evening as a mid-level
disturbance may combine with enough moisture and leftover daytime
instability to generate a few showers and thunderstorms. The NBM is
not quite getting this, but SPC has highlighted portions of the
Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend under a Marginal risk
for severe weather, and isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible, with hail and damaging winds being the primary threats.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast should remain fairly quite as
high pressure aloft amplifies across the region into next week.

The increasingly warmer temperatures continue to be the main
headlines through the Extended range, as high temperatures are
expected to combine with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s to lead to
dangerous heat index values. These are forecast to approach or
exceed 105 degrees areawide Friday and Saturday, and 110 degrees
Sunday through mid next week. These dangerous heat conditions may
require Advisories on later packages, and those with planned outdoor
activities should take this under consideration. If spending time
outdoors...make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light-colored
and loose clothing, sunscreen, and try to conduct outdoor activities
early in the morning or late in the day when temperatures are
cooler. Know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke and check
out additional safety tips at weather.gov/safety/heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Leftover cirrus canopy from earlier convection over northeast
Mexico continues to move across the region early this morning. The
high clouds have inhibited the fog potential over the inland
coastal plains. Will show TEMPO MVFR vsbys at ALI/VCT from
12-14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the
forecast period. Isolated convection may develop over the Victoria
Crossroads this afternoon, and by late tonight over the western
Brush Country. Confidence is a little higher on activity affecting
the western Brush Country late tonight. Will show VCTS in COT/LRD
TAFS from 08-12Z Thursday. Patchy fog will be possible after 09Z
Thursday at ALI/VCT with MVFR vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Light and variable winds this morning will become weak onshore
this afternoon as a sea breeze develops. The weak southeast flow
will become southwesterly early Thursday morning. Weak southeast
winds will develop Thursday afternoon with the sea breeze.

A generally weak to moderate southerly flow will develop on Friday,
and persist through early next week. Periods of Small Craft Exercise
Caution conditions will be possible at times over the weekend across
the southern bays and nearshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  72  95  74 /  10  10  10   0
Victoria          91  70  93  71 /  20  10  20  10
Laredo            98  75 100  75 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             94  70  98  70 /  10  10  10   0
Rockport          87  76  91  75 /  10  10   0  10
Cotulla           96  73  98  74 /  10  20  10   0
Kingsville        93  71  96  73 /  10  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       90  76  91  78 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...TMT/89