Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 271743
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1243 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

.AVIATION...

/18Z TAFs/ VFR through the evening. General S-SW flow 5-10 KTs
becoming more SE 10-15 KTs between 19-22Z. Winds to slowly fall
below 10 KTs after 00Z, then more so after 06Z. Will expect
MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs to develop across the coastal region after 09Z
impacting sites from ALI-CRP-VCT, with potential for LIFR at ALI.
VFR to return around and after 14Z for all sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 646 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022/

AVIATION...

Been tough to forecast VSBY`s this morning. Expect ALI/CRP to have
IFR/LIFR conditions with FG until a couple hours after sunrise.
VCT still VFR but expecting that FG could develop and conditions
to IFR with LIFR possible at times but am less confident with
this. Satellite show lower ceilings still moving toward VCT but so
far have mixed out before making it there. After VFR conditions
return this afternoon accompanied by some gusty winds MVFR
conditions likely overnight tonight with similar conditions as
this morning but am less confident at this point especially when
guidance showing slightly increased winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Hot and Dry accompanied by patchy fog as high pressure expands over
South Texas will be the main weather story for the short term
period.

Patchy fog has started to develop this morning across the Coastal
Plains with KALI dropping to 1/2 of a mile and is expected to drop
as low as 1/4 mi around sunrise. This should clear out by mid-
morning. Afternoon highs today will climb to the mid to upper 90s
across the region with mainly light and variable winds. Some
gustiness is to be expected during the afternoon hours topping out
around 20 mph. Tonight and tomorrow will be a near repeat due to
persistence, except am less confident about Fog development since
winds may be a wee bit higher and could mix out the SBL preventing
fog formation and so have left out of the forecast for now.

Heat indices both days should remain well below 110 but don`t be
fooled, it`ll still be hot please stay hydrated and minimize time
spent outside. Fire weather concerns should be negated since am
not expecting wind or relative humidity values to reach any
thresholds today or tomorrow.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

Surface low pressure will be over the southern high plains Sunday
into Monday ahead of a slow moving upper trough over the northern
and central Rockies. This will lead to breezy to windy conditions
over the coastal plains each afternoon Sunday and Monday. The RH
values may fall enough on Sunday over the Brush Country to see
elevated fire danger conditions there in the afternoon.

Humidity will increase Monday and Tuesday due to persistent onshore
flow. This will lead to heat index values increasing to 105-109
degree range over the inland Coastal Bend to the Brush Country
during the afternoons.

The upper trough will move into the central plains on Tuesday with a
front moving south into Oklahoma. The pressure gradient will be a
little weaker Tuesday with possibly breezy conditions over the
Coastal Bend in the afternoon. The boundary will sag into north
Texas on Wednesday with wind speeds a little lower again. Enough
moisture will be in place by Wednesday to see isolated convection
develop during the day. An upper level ridge will build over the
region on Thursday but enough moisture may linger in the Victoria
Crossroads for a slight chance of thunderstorms there.

PETSS continues to show the possibility of minor coastal flooding
and a high risk of rip currents for the Gulf facing beaches of the
Middle Texas coast for the remainder of the Memorial Day holiday
weekend period from Sunday into Monday. Higher astronomical tides
and increased onshore flow will lead to hazardous beach conditions
Sunday and Monday.

MARINE...

Dry conditions will accompany a weak to moderate variable flow that
may become moderate at times and then increase slightly as
southeasterly flow settles in tomorrow evening. No Small Craft
Advisory Conditions are expected at this time, but conditions
will border on Small Craft Should Exercise Caution. A moderate
onshore flow will continue Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will
increase to moderate to strong over the southern bays and near
shore waters Sunday afternoon and spread across the Gulf waters
Sunday night and continue Monday. A moderate onshore flow is
expected Monday night through Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  72  93  74  92  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          97  70  96  71  93  /   0   0   0   0   0
Laredo            99  74 100  74 102  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             98  71  99  71  98  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          90  76  88  78  90  /   0   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          100  73 102  74 101  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        97  72  97  72  95  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       89  76  87  77  89  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION


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