Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 161147
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
647 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation below for 12Z TAF update.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR prevails at KLRD and KCRP this morning. Patchy MVFR ceilings
are moving across portions of South Texas and will bring a mix of
MVFR/VFR conditions to KALI and KVCT early this morning. All
ceilings should clear the region by the mid morning, with VFR
prevailing at all area terminals through the rest of the period.
Light winds this morning will increase to a gusty SSE to SE flow
late this morning into the afternoon. Wind speeds will gradually
relax this evening and overnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 426 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

Upper level ridging will predominate over the region through the
period. Precipitable water values will gradually decrease across
South Texas through the period as slightly drier air works into
the low/mid levels. A few isolated streamer showers have developed
past the coastal waters early this morning. A few of these showers
or storms may make it into the coastal waters this morning, but
anticipate mostly dry conditions to prevail. With the suppressive
ridge building over the southwest states, do not anticipate any
additional convection through the rest of the period. Near normal
temperatures will persist. Heat index values will again reach SPS
values of 105 to 109 degrees.

LONG TERM (Friday night through Wednesday)...

Upper level ridge axis will shift back to the west over the week.
South Texas will be on the eastern periphery of this ridge resulting
in hot and mostly dry conditions Saturday and Sunday. The exception
may be over the Coastal Waters into the northern part of the Coastal
Bend where some isolated showers will be possible.

Upper trough moves out of the Plains on Monday with the associated
cold front moving southward across north and central Texas. Moisture
increases by Monday night with PW values between 1.8 and 2.0 inches.
While the front may not make it into South Texas, showers and storms
along the boundary could drift into the northern parts of the area
Monday night. Low chances of showers and storms will also exist on
Tuesday, primarily across the Victoria Crossroads.

Overall, it will be very warm to hot throughout the extended part of
the forecast. Temperatures will be fairly persistent across the
area. Highs will easily top 100 degrees over the Rio Grande Plains
to middle 90s over the Coastal Plains into the Victoria Crossroads.
Heat index values will be between 105 and 109 daily and will likely
need special weather statements to address the heat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  76  95  76  94  /  10  10  10   0  10
Victoria          96  75  96  75  97  /  10  10  10   0  10
Laredo           104  78 104  77 103  /  10   0  10   0   0
Alice             99  75  99  74  98  /  10  10  10   0  10
Rockport          94  80  93  81  91  /  10  10  10   0  10
Cotulla          101  75 102  75 101  /  10  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        98  76  98  75  98  /  10  10  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       94  81  93  81  90  /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

LB/84...AVIATION


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