752
FXUS64 KCRP 132347
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
547 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 118 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Key Message:

- Low to medium (20-60%) chance of showers Tuesday night through
  Wednesday morning.

A surface high pressure system over the Southern Plains will
maintain northerly flow and quiet weather conditons at the start
of the short term period. Overnight tonight, increasing cloud
cover is expected. However, dry air near the surface will support
cooler temperatures, with lows on Tuesday morning ranging from the
upper 30s to low 40s across the northern counties and mid to
upper 40s further south and along the coast. By Tuesday, the high
pressure system will shift southeastward, gradually veering winds
to an east-northeast direction and allowing for an increase in
moisture.

A coastal trough is forecast to develop near Deep South Texas and
the Mexican coast, with isentropic lift and embedded shortwave
disturbances aloft contributing to a low to medium (20-60%) chance
of light showers over the Gulf waters, the southern Coastal Bend,
and the southern Brush Country Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Outside of these isolated rain chances, benign conditions
will persist across South Texas, with daytime highs on Tuesday in
the mid-50s to low 60s and nighttime lows in the mid 40s to low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 118 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Key Messages:

- Medium to high (50-70%) chances of showers Wednesday.

- Brief warm-up Friday and Saturday with highs in the 70s.

- Another strong cold front this upcoming weekend.

No major changes in the long-term this package. An inverted surface
coastal trough along the Lower Texas Coast Wednesday will bring
medium to high rain chances across South Texas as PWATs climb to
near 1.3". Drier air settles in Thursday as a broad surface high
drifts southward along the Texas Coast and the inverted trough/low
over the northwest Gulf moves eastward. The surface high shifts
farther eastward Friday, allowing for onshore flow to return. This
will warm temperatures, with highs ranging from the low to mid 70s
Friday and Saturday, with even some upper 70s possible across Brush
Country.

A prefrontal trough will shift winds out of the northwest Saturday
afternoon before a strong cold front surges southward across the
region Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Efficient Cold Air
Advection (CAA) will limit highs to the 50s Sunday and drop highs
even further into early next week. This blast of cold air appears to
have a more southward component to it than the last one, so this
could mean more widespread freezing temperatures across the region.

Currently, the NBM has roughly a 30-60 percent chance for much of
the area to fall below freezing at some point early next week. The
bias-correction on the models has been a little too extreme to the
cold side recently, so this will be something to keep an eye on as
the next cold front nears. For now, however, there remains a large
spread with just how cold the temperatures will get, so stay tuned
for changes to the forecast over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday morning
with winds remaining relatively light. Mid level clouds will move
into the region tomorrow morning and filter in some lower clouds
as well as moisture increases. Tuesday afternoon showers will
begin to creeping into the region from the south which will
transition ceilings at most sites (ALI,CRP,LRD,COT) to MVFR to
IFR. This is expected to last through the remainder of the period.
Confidence on timing wasn`t high as of yet so it was left out of
the TAFs for now.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 118 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Tonight through Tuesday night: Winds and seas will remain at
Small Craft Advisory levels across the offshore waters through
early evening. A moderate northeast flow is expected tonight
through Tuesday. A low to medium (30-60%) chance of isolated
showers will be possible across the coastal waters south of Corpus
Christi Bay beginning Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday through Next Monday: Moderate to strong east to
northeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday night. Winds
will weaken to around 10-15 knots Thursday before southerly flow
returns late Thursday night into Friday. Winds will shift
northwesterly Saturday afternoon in advance of a strong cold
front, with strong north to northeasterly flow in wake of the
front Saturday night into Sunday. Medium to high rain chances will
persist through Wednesday night before lessening to low rain
chances through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    46  60  49  56 /   0  10  50  70
Victoria          40  60  46  55 /   0   0  20  60
Laredo            44  56  47  53 /   0  20  60  50
Alice             44  58  47  53 /   0  20  60  70
Rockport          47  59  49  56 /   0  10  40  70
Cotulla           40  58  47  53 /   0  10  40  50
Kingsville        46  60  50  54 /   0  20  60  70
Navy Corpus       51  59  54  57 /   0  10  60  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....CLM/93
AVIATION...NP/92