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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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834 FXUS61 KCTP 161859 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 259 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... *Partly to mostly sunny and warmer for Father`s Day *Long duration and potentially dangerous heat wave this week *High temperatures 90+ degrees Monday into next weekend && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... 1025AM/1424UTC: Minor tweaks to hourly T/Td/Sky grids based the latest obs and visible satellite trends. Main focus for the rest of the day will be on heat product flow (WWA) with impending heat wave to set impact the area this week. Previous Discussion Issued: 448 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Surface high pressure centered over upstate NY will pass off of the New England coast later today, resulting in fair and seasonable conditions across Central PA with a slightly warmer return southerly flow. Upstream satellite imagery and model guidance indicate warm advection aloft ahead of a shortwave lifting over the Grt Lks will result in some mid and high level cloudiness across Central PA today, mainly through early afternoon. However, on balance mostly sunny wording should suffice for the area. Mixing down model 850mb temps of around 14C yields expected highs ranging from the mid 70s over the mountains north of KIPT, to the mid 80s in the Lower Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A building subtropical ridge over the East Coast will bring fair and increasingly hot weather to Central PA early next week. Warm mid level temps should largely suppress convection. However, isolated convection is possible Monday afternoon, primarily over the Laurel Highlands, where the elevated heat source could aid in breaking the cap. Scattered, pulse-type convection appears possible Tuesday afternoon, primarily along the spine of the Alleghenies. Mixing down 850mb temps yields highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Monday and mostly low to mid 90s Tuesday. The increasing heat, coupled with dewpoints in the 65-70F range, could result in heat index values close to 100F in the lower elevations east of the Allegheny Plateau by Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... All medium range guidance continues to show a prolonged heat wave will occur throughout the extended forecast period. A 595-600 dm 500 mb ridge will be situated over Central Pennsylvania and temperatures will easily reach the 90s across most of the region each day. Temperatures will ramp up each day giving us our hottest day by midweek. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s and low 100s, with the Wednesday-Friday timeframe. Corridanting with surrounding office on the timing and extent of either Advisories or Watches. Some models indicate the potential for a few showers or thunderstorms each afternoon across the northern tier, but coverage should be very limited and elevation driven. Ensembles show the ridge beginning to flatten out a little by Saturday which would allow for a slightly higher chance of showers or storms, particularly across the northern half of the area. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Good VFR across the entire area through the forecast period. Any localized wind gusts this afternoon will diminish toward sunset. Dry air should keep any fog from forming overnight. Outlook... Mon-Thu...Predominantly VFR, with building heat. Density altitude concerns possible. && .CLIMATE... A period of much warmer than average temperatures is expected across much of central Pennsylvania next week, with record high temperatures being challenged. The record high temperatures for some sites across central PA are outlined below: Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Harrisburg 97/1957 98/1994 98/1931 98/1923 Williamsport 97/2018 96/1929 101/1923 97/1933 State College 94/1923 94/1931 94/1953 94/1988 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Tyburski AVIATION...Tyburski CLIMATE...NPB