Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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117 FXUS61 KCTP 020001 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 801 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A large high pressure system will build into the region tonight and Tuesday, followed by a dying cold front pushing in from the Great Lakes and stalling out over the area by the middle of next week. Very warm and quite humid air will return for the second half of this week and last into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure and associated low-pwat air mass building over PA tonight will result in efficient radiational cooling and min temps several degrees below seasonal normals. Have undercut NBM low temps by a couple of degrees, with expected daybreak readings ranging from the mid 40s in the cooler valleys of the Alleghenies, to the low 60s in the more urbanized spots of the Lower Susq Valley. Despite very dry air over the area, expect a large air/water temp difference of >25 degrees to result in patchy late night fog in the deep river/stream valleys north of I-80. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level ridging building into PA from the west will result in fair and warmer conditions Tuesday. However, the surface high and associated low-pwat air will remain parked over the state, so expect humidity to remain low. Mixing down model 850mb temps of around 13C translates to expected highs ranging from the mid and upper 70s over the higher terrain of the Alleghenies, to 80-85F in the valleys. Very dry air above a weak inversion the forecast soundings is a reliable indicator of dewpoints falling below NBM guidance, so have leaned toward the lower MAV/NBM10pct numbers. Warm advection aloft ahead of a weak shortwave cresting the top of the ridge will likely produce some thin cirrus Tuesday, but sunny to mostly sunny wording should suffice. The warmup will continue into Wednesday with an uptick in humidity as the surface high drifts off of the Mid Atlantic coast, accompanied by a return southern flow. GEFS 2m temp anomalies are a few degrees above normal over the W Mtns and near average elsewhere, translating to highs well into the 80s. Moisture advection ahead of an upstream cold front could potentially support a shower/tsra toward evening across Warren/Mckean counties. Otherwise, upper level ridging should ensure another mostly sunny, rain-free day across Central PA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Despite the arrival of a cold front near the beginning of the long term (Thursday-ish), heat builds and then lasts for the rest of the long range period. The front likely won`t cleanly pass through the state and will linger nearby for the end of the week. The highest confidence of precip and storms is Wed night- Fri, both due to the near-ness in time and presence of the front and flattening/lowering heights. We could eek out a dry day on Sunday. But, the PoPs are in the chance (30-50pct) range for each day after - mainly for diurnal storms. At this point, the SE half of the area may be the best place to get wet with those pop-ups each day. That would be good news for them as they are currently the driest in the CWA (and in D1 drought status). The flow stays generally out of the SW, and should be drawing moisture and heat from the southern states if not the whole GOMEX for the first half or more of next week. Thus, there isn`t much change in the hot temps and muggy dewpoints through the whole of the long range. 8H temp anomalies of +2C to +5C will make maxes in the M80s to L90s common. The heat risk for the period looks worst on Fri and Sat when heat index values get around 100 for the SE/Lower Susq, esp in the urban heat islands. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions and mainly clear skies will prevail tonight and Tuesday. There is a very small chance (<20%) that patchy valley fog will impact airfields in the NW mountains. No mention of fog has been made within the TAFS due to low probabilities. Winds diminish this evening as the center of high pressure builds over the region. Tuesday is expected to remain dry with fair weather and light winds to persist until Wednesday night. Outlook... Tue...Patchy AM valley fog N Mtns. Wed...Evening tsra impacts possible NW Mtns. Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Sct PM tsra impacts possible. Fri...Sct tsra impacts possible, mainly PM. Sat...Chc tsra throughout the day. && .CLIMATE... June 2024 was the warmest June on record for Bradford with a mean temperature of 66.6F, breaking the old record of 65.8F set in 2021. June 2024 was the 3rd warmest June on record for Harrisburg with a mean temperature of 76.0F. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Dangelo AVIATION...DeVoir/Bowen CLIMATE...Colbert