848
FXUS65 KCYS 150445
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1045 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous thunderstorms expected through the evening hours
  today. Some will have the potential to become strong to
  severe.

- The main threats today are very frequent lightning and heavy
  rainfall, but isolated storms will have the potential to
  produce large hail and strong, gusty winds.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Initial thunderstorm development over the southern NE panhandle
early this afternoon was likely elevated convection associated with
700mb frontogenesis as indicated by SPC mesoanalysis. Low-levels
based on latest RAP soundings remain capped with 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
available aloft. Observed mostly heavy rainfall with these storms as
MRMS estimates suggested 1-2" of rainfall between Bushnell and
Kimball over a short duration. Only 1 HREF member suggested this
early development (and it was a time-lagged member). More widespread
CI will commence over the next 1-3 hours near a line from Cheyenne
through Chadron as well as further south in CO moving northeast into
portions of the NE panhandle.

Latest GOES imagery continues to show clearing across Laramie Co
along with southern Goshen and Platte counties in WY as the
atmosphere continues to destabilize today. Stable billow clouds still
appear to be present over portions of the South Laramie Range while
latest trends from GOES EMeso2 shows a narrow Cu field trying to
materialize east of Chugwater. This is positioned along the moisture
convergence boundary noted in surface observations with ~35-40F
degree dew points to the west and moist ~55-60F degree dew points
eastward towards the NE border. This boundary will be the focal
point for additional convection later this afternoon along with any
storms that develop over the higher terrain as the low-levels
continues to destabilize. Latest research sounding taken at CSU
around 17z still showed over 100 J/kg of SBCIN that needs to be
overcome, but PW near 1" will support heavy rainfall with these
storms headed into this afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For details on Friday`s storm threat, see the Mesoscale section
above.

While the severe threat should be mostly concluded by around 03z
tonight, the upper level shortwave axis will still be pushing
across the area through about 12z. Synoptic scale lift in the
presence of modest lingering instability will keep some
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity continuing into the early
morning hours Saturday. Heavy rainfall and isolated hail may
still be possible, mostly southeast of a Cheyenne to Alliance
line. The trough axis should clear the eastern border of the
forecast area by around 12z, advecting in fairly dry air in the
middle atmosphere for Saturday morning. Expect clearing skies
and rapid warming for Saturday as winds turn back westerly and
the dryline retreats to the east.

After today`s shortwave clears out, the overall synoptic pattern
over the CONUS will feature a strong ridge building over the
Midwest towards the East Coast, with a potent trough starting to
dig into the Pacific northwest. This will leave southwest flow
aloft over our area through the short term forecast period.
Expect a breezy to windy day east of a Cheyenne to Lusk line
underneath the southwest flow. The probability of high winds is
fairly low, just around 10-40% (highest at Rawlins), but not low
enough to discount completely. Gusts of 40 to 50 MPH are likely,
but certainly can`t rule out a few gusts of 60+MPH. Other than
that, it looks like a hot day as 700-mb temperatures recover to
around +14 to +17C across the area, supporting widespread 90s
east of the Laramie range. The break in activity will be fairly
short lived though, as another vort- max will eject out of the
Pac NW longwave trough Saturday afternoon. A little bit of
synoptic lift associated with this, along with a quick return in
modest mid-level moisture will initiate another round of widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. This will be a
dramatically different environment compared to today though,
with much drier low-levels leading to inverted-v soundings.
Thus, the rainfall potential will be reduced, but storms will
have the potential to produce strong, gusty winds. This will be
especially true west of the Laramie range where the baseline
winds will be fairly elevated already. Tomorrow`s storms should
be quick and finish early, clearing out by around 01z.

The surface low associated with Saturday`s weak shortwave will
push out east by Sunday morning. A surface trough trailing
behind this will push a cold front through the area during the
morning hours, returning easterly flow and better moisture to
the high plains. This will knock temperatures down several
degrees to the east, but it will be another hot one further west
with Rawlins and Laramie expected to reach the upper 80s. The
thunderstorm setup on Sunday looks a little interesting. Much of
the high plains will be strongly capped underneath the
inversion, though the area in the vicinity of the Laramie range
may be able to get a few storms to break through the cap aided
by the topography. Other than that, look for fairly limited
storm coverage through the day Sunday. However, after about 00z,
models are consistently showing the west coast trough digging
slightly further south into the Great Basin. This nudges in some
southerly flow at 700-mb which manifests are fairly potent
isentropic lift overrunning the frontal boundary. With elevated
instability lingering over much of the area, there is the
potential for a late evening or overnight round of showers and
thunderstorms developing mainly north of the North Platte River.
Shear vectors look quite strong with about 50 knot SW winds at
500-mb on top of northeasterly surface winds. Instability will
probably be the main limiting factor, but if this comes
together, some overnight strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible. We`ll need to monitor this in the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 421 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Models in reasonable agreement late this weekend through early
next week, showing broad southwest flow aloft through early
Tuesday. An upper level trough across the eastern Pacific is
forecast to remain anchored over the Pac NW into Monday, and
finally show signs of ejecting east on Tuesday. Further east,
surface high pressure will remain over the northern and central
plains, which will help in producing easterly winds for areas
along and east of the Laramie Range. Upslope easterly winds may
be enhanced by any MCS activity over the northern plains, with
models showing some signs of a mesoscale cool front moving
southwest across the northern Front Range. For Sunday and
Monday, expect a continuation of isolated to widely scattered
(10 to 30 percent coverage) thunderstorms in the late afternoon
through the late evening hours. Although forcing seems limited,
there should be enough low level moisture, jet energy aloft,
and natural terrain-induced convergence along the Laramie Range
to initiate some thunderstorm activity. Not expecting severe
weather, but a few strong thunderstorms are possible Sunday
evening through the overnight hours north of Interstate 80.
Temperatures should remain near or slightly above average with
highs in the 80s for most locations along I-80 and west of I-25.
However, with models hinting towards a backdoor cool front and
easterly winds...high temperatures will struggle to get into the
mid 70s from Douglas to Chadron Nebraska.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday, the 00z GFS is trending more
aggressive with a late-season Pacific cold front as the upper
level trough in the Pac NW tracks eastward. All models generally
have 700mb temperatures dropping between 0c to 5c above zero by
early Wednesday morning as the primary trough axis quickly moves
across the area and weakens. The ECMWF and Canadian are not as
aggressive with the cooler airmass, but are more in line with
the ensemble mean. Kept high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid
70s on Wednesday although some guidance is around 10 degrees
cooler...which is around the 10th percentile of ensemble
spreads and the NBM. Will have to monitor overnight lows with a
few locations already showing min temperatures close to freezing
early Wednesday morning. Kept low POP (15 to 25 percent) for
this time period with an unfavorable signal for widespread
convection due to the cooler temperatures near the surface.

For later next week, models do indicate a general warming trend
as we head into Thursday and next Friday with a more favorable
environment for afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Concerns with the 06Z TAFs will be fog/stratus in the Panhandle
overnight. Some areas received significant rainfall this
afternoon and evening...especially across northern Cheyenne
County into southern Morrill County. Lots of low level moisture
tonight that could aid in low cloud/fog development. Primary
airports of concerns will be KBFF and KAIA where the latest HRRR
guidance shows widespread IFR/LIFR conditions. Followed its
guidance on timing. As for KSNY...need to keep an eye on
observations overnight as they got over a half inch of rain as
well. Improving conditions after sunrise Saturday with VFR
conditions returning to all airports.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...MB
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...GCC