Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FNUS75 KCYS 271354
FWSCYS

Spot Forecast for Eagle Eye...Great Plains Dispatch
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
754 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service at (307) 772-2227

.DISCUSSION...

Looking at warm temperatures this afternoon with the potential for scattered
severe thunderstorms into the evening. High temperatures this afternoon will
max out in the low 90s with minimum RHs dropping to around 30 percent.
Predominately looking at winds out of the west to southwest with gusts up to
25 MPH this afternoon. General timing of storms today will be between 2 PM
and 7 PM, with the strongest storms also expected during this timeframe. Main
concern with these storms will be the potential for strong erratic winds, with
gusts over 60 MPH possible. Large hail is also a concern with these storms.
Frequent lightning can be expected, with the potential for wetting rains. Some
lingering storms could be possible overnight, with decent humidity recoveries.
Another round of storms is possible Friday afternoon.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................1 percent increasing to 14 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......10100 ft AGL increasing to 12100 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (80700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (113800
                    knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to
                    excellent (150700 knot-ft) in the afternoon in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........39  38  36  35  34  43  53  63  60  58
Weather cov.....                CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   4   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............72  75  80  85  89  92  92  91  89  89
RH..............67  60  49  39  33  29  28  29  29  28
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT wind spd..12  12  10  10  10  10  12  13  14  16
20 FT wind gust.17  17  16  16  16  17  18  20  22  24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.5 3.5 6.1 8.4 10  11  12  12  12
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.18  16  15  15  15  15  14  13  14  15
Haines index....3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100011  21  46  81  114 128 132 135 142 151

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................4 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 24 mph shifting to the northwest 12
                    to 17 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (157800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to good (71100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night decreasing to fair (49200 knot-ft) early
                    in the evening decreasing to poor (11000
                    knot-ft) late in the night overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........56  53  51  48  51  54  57  54  51  48  43  39
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............3   3   3   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............89  87  81  78  75  73  72  69  67  65  62  60
RH..............28  31  39  46  49  52  53  58  64  69  73  77
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..16  16  16  15  15  14  14  14  13  13  13  12
20 FT wind gust.25  24  24  23  22  22  21  21  20  20  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...11  9.5 7.5 5.6 4.2 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.16  20  22  24  26  28  26  22  17  13  12  12
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/1000157 158 145 121 97  71  49  32  21  15  12  11

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................9 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 6 to 13 mph late in the morning.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (89200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34  33  32  30  27  23  19  23  27  31  29  26
Weather cov.....                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   4   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............60  62  65  67  71  75  76  78  80  82  82  81
RH..............74  67  61  55  48  43  41  38  35  32  30  29
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   NW  NE  E   NE  N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..12  10  10  9   7   6   6   7   9   12  13  13
20 FT wind gust.17  16  15  14  12  9   9   12  15  17  18  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.7 2.4 3.2 3.7 4.3 5.2 7.0 8.8 10  9.8 8.8
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   N
Transp wind spd.12  9   7   6   6   7   8   9   10  10  10  9
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100013  14  15  16  19  26  37  55  75  89  86  73

$$
Forecaster...Fuller
Requested by...Matt Karges
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416807.0/CYS
.DELDT 06/27/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sdgpc@firenet.gov