579
FXUS63 KDDC 130700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A hot day across southwest Kansas with air temperatures in the
  100-104 range. Heat index values will be in advisory range
  (105 and greater) mainly for areas along and east of highway
  183.

- Severe risk this afternoon for mainly gusty downburst winds in
  excess of 60 mph and can`t rule out an isolated gust over 75
  mph.

- Severe risk on Friday mainly in the evening and early
  overnight hours with a complex of storms exiting eastern
  Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

06z observations and upper air analysis has a large 5950 dm high
centered over central New Mexico with a 500 mb shortwave moving
through northwest and north central Kansas. This wave is mainly
providing some mid and upper level clouds. At the surface a
trough extends from a 1008 mb surface low in southeast Colorado
to central Nebraska.

For today we are expecting to reach the warmest high
temperatures so far this season. Mainly sunny skies combined
with southwest winds helping to mix out some of the lower level
moisture and an approaching cold front which will help to
compress the air in the boundary layer should be the recipe for
highs reaching into the low 100s CWA wide. The highest dewpoints
(>65 F) should be mainly along and east of highway 183 as the
mixing doesn`t really come until late afternoon and with that
heat index values could reach into the 105-107 range. I kept the
advisory from the previous forecast as is which will be Stafford
through Barber county however areas from La Crosse to Coldwater
could see a brief window of 105 HI.

Later this afternoon and through the early evening a slow moving
cold front will move into north central and northwest Kansas.
With mid level temperatures in the 16-18 (C) range we will need
highs to get over 100 in order to reach convective temperatures.
CAM models are in good agreement of initiation of storms along
the cold front around the K-96 corridor in the 3-4 PM time
frame. These storms will have most of the CAPE in the mid and
upper levels and with inverted V soundings and high DCAPE values
(HRRR has as high as 1900 J/kg) in the late afternoon these
storms will have downburst wind threats. As the storms move into
the area of more robust moisture from Coldwater to St. John we
could get some wind gusts in excess of 75 mph. Hail threat will
be greatest with the initial development of discrete storms but
the storm mode should quickly turn linear as storms line up
along the cold front. The storm activity for the most part
should be over with by around 10 PM and we will be left with
mainly quiet conditions the rest of the night.


Friday will be another warm day however not as warm as Thursday.
With winds more out of the east to southeast direction and 850
mb temps slightly cooler we should have higher surface moisture
which will be the heating of the air a little less efficient.
That said we should still see highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Upper level winds will be out of the southwest and by late
afternoon a shortwave will move into southeast Colorado. We
should see a line of storms grow upscale from north central New
Mexico through northwest Kansas and quickly move northeast. The
majority of the severe weather should be concentrated in
northwest Kansas with a strong wind threat but our northwest
zones from Syracuse to Hays will have the higher probabilities
of seeing severe weather.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

It will be another hot day on Friday with highs around 100F.
Heat index values are not forecast to be as high as those
expected on Thursday. However, with this being the second
consecutive day of highs around 100F and overnight lows around
70F across south central Kansas, another area of Major HeatRisk
is expected for Pratt, Barber, and portions of Stafford
counties. At this time, a heat advisory is not anticipated.
However, given the Major HeatRisk forecast along and east of
Highway 281, those in these locations should consider limiting
afternoon activities and remember to stay hydrated.

On Friday, we will also be monitoring the weakening upper low
as it moves northeast from the four corners region to the
Central Rockies, while the upper ridge shifts east towards the
eastern half of Kansas. As this more significant upper level
system approaches, a trough of low pressure at the surface will
deepen across eastern Colorado. Increasing south southeast flow
ahead of this deepening surface trough will draw more humidity
back into southwest Kansas and eastern Kansas. Improving
moisture and lift developing along this eastern Colorado trough
will result in another afternoon of scattered thunderstorms.
Stronger cloud layer mean winds will be present late Friday and
Friday night, along with better shear and mid level
instability. As a result, these storms will be capable of
producing large hail and strong damaging winds early Friday
night. Agree with SPC concern about the need to monitor the
potential for MCS development overnight as these storms move
east-northeast into Northern Kansas. Those near the I-70
corridor should monitor this potential Friday night closely,
given that several ensembles show good 850-700mb moisture
transport across this region. Additionally, the presence of a
0-1km theta-e axis, mid level baroclinic zone, and a developing
low-level jet indicate that Friday night storms will be capable
of producing large hail, strong gusty winds, and heavy
rainfall.

For Sunday through the start of next week...Despite some
differences in the timing and strength of this upper trough
early this weekend, all ensemble clusters agree on moving this
upper wave east of our county warning area by early Sunday
morning. As this upper trough passes, rain chances will
diminish, leading to a break in the triple-digit heat expected
on Sunday and possibly even Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

In general we should have VFR flight category and winds 10-15
kts for all terminals during the time period. Between 20Z-01Z a
cold front will move across southwest Kansas which will switch
the winds to the northeast and also be the focal point for
thunderstorm development. VCTS is possible for all terminals
however GCK, DDC, and LBL will have the highest probability
(20-40%) of storms between 21-01Z and these storms could
contain downdrafts that could reach in excess of 50 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ066-081-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro