024
FXUS63 KDDC 151902
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
202 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and weak storm potential confined along the Colorado
  border tonight

- Mid level disturbance may bring showers and weak storms across
  eastern zones Monday morning

- Isolated storm coverage Monday with higher chances (>40%) Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Satellite water vapor channel shows a minor UL wave moving across
western Colorado this afternoon. This weak disturbance will continue
to move east across that state this evening. At the low levels, a
lee trough continues across eastern Colorado this afternoon. Dewpoints
across the FA are in the 50s across far western Kansas to mainly
low to mid 60s across the rest of the area. The combination of the
weak disturbance moving through and low level moisture could result
in showers and weak storms develop across eastern Colorado this afternoon.
As a result, will continue to keep some low 15-20% pops across the
Kansas/Colorado border for this afternoon and evening. Do not expect
much propagation of this activity into the state through the evening.
Otherwise, the next chance of showers and weak storms is not expected
until Monday morning as a mid level baroclinic band moves across
central Kansas. Will continue with slight pops (15-24%) across the
eastern counties to account for this possibility. Unfortunately,
the rest of the FA should remain dry through Monday morning.

Storm potential for Monday afternoon and evening is of low confidence.
Several CAMs are all showing different storm potential from some
isolated activity to not much at all. Overall synoptics tomorrow
are rather weak, so spatial coverage should remain on the isolated
side. As a result, will continue with only 15-20% pops for some of
the FA. There isn`t really a clear cut solution right now, so this
is the reason for the broadbrushed low pops. Low level moisture will
continue with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, so it is hard to
rule from anything not developing at this point in time. The overall
weather picture still stands with only isolated coverage of showers
and weak storms Monday afternoon and evening.

Attention then turns to Tuesday. The lee trough will deepen through
the day as a large UL trof carves out upstream of the FA. Low level
moisture will continue across western Kansas with dewpoints in the
50s to low 60s. The combination of this moisture and the approaching
UL wave will lead to the highest storm chances with pops greater
than 40% for much of the FA. EPS probabilities of >0.10" are to 40
to 70%. Grand ensemble probabilities of the same QPF amount are in
the 40 to 70% range as well. As a result, think the deterministic
solutions are in line with the probabilistic sources and will continue
with the higher pops for now.

We will be in between weather systems Wednesday and Thursday with
weak shortwave ridging. As a result, a mainly dry forecast is likely
for the middle portion of the business week. By Friday, a second
UL low/trof begins to carve out across the western United States.
Low level moisture across Kansas is expected to continue with dewpoints
in the 50s to lower 60s. As a result, another storm window is possible
across southwest Kansas Friday. Grand ensemble and EPS probabilities
for QPF >0.10" being to increase during this period, which does match
up with some of the long range deterministic solutions. Both EPS
and GEFS QPF amounts are forecast across southwest Kansas to also
consider an ensemble approach.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Any showers and storms are expected
to remain well west of the terminals this evening. SE to S winds
10-20 kt will continue through much of the period. The pressure gradient
will remain fairly tight this evening and SE/S winds 12-16 kt will
continue even through the overnight period. Winds may become gusty
once again tomorrow during the day to 25 kt. Storm coverage tomorrow
will be very isolated, so will leave CB/TS groups out of the TAFs
for now.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden