Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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744 FXUS63 KDDC 300843 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 343 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms capable of producing 1 to 2" hail, wind gusts up to 60 mph along with locally heavy rainfall can be expected across Southeast Kansas this afternoon and early Tonight. - There will be a chance for thunderstorms just about each night from Friday night through Sunday night. It currently looks like the best chance for widespread rainfall will occur Saturday night. - Warmer temperatures will be returning to southwest Kansas early next week. Heat index values in the upper 90s possible for some locations, mainly south and east of Dodge City. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Ensembles this morning are in good agreement with an upper level trough crossing the Northern Plains today, bringing cooler 500mb temperatures to eastern Colorado and western Kansas which will be located near and southeast of the base of this trough today. As 500mb temperatures cool, a surface cold front will move into eastern Colorado/western Kansas by midday, where it will briefly stall as 850-700mb moisture and frontogenesis improve. A dryline is expected to extend south of this cold front into western Texas during the afternoon/early evening. Given these conditions, it appears likely (+60%) that thunderstorms will return to western Kansas during the afternoon, especially near the surface boundary where better cooling aloft and 850-700mb moisture will be present. 700mb-500mb lapse rates in this area have a +70% chance to be >8C/km. 0-6km shear will be improving, but at this time, SREF has less than a 20% chance for this to be >40 knots and a 50-70% chance for the 0-6km shear to be >30 knots with the shear and instability forecast along and east of the dryline during the afternoon and evening. Given this it appears that SPC`s assessment this morning for the best chances for severe weather will be mainly west of Highway 83 and near the Oklahoma border. This is also where the dryline is forecast to be located. Further north, I cannot rule out hail and gusty winds, but these are not expected to be as large as what the storms will be capable of producing farther southwest, near the Oklahoma Panhandle. Locally heavy rainfall across southwest Kansas will also be an issue given the high precipitable water values (>1), shear <35 knots and veering, 850mb moisture/warm air advection along with improving 850-700mb moisture transport and weak to no 850-700mb CIN. Confidence is further enhanced with the locally heavy rain potential given a +0.7 ECMWF EFI and a positive shift of Tails. These thunderstorms will move southeast tonight into early Friday as the cold front moves into central Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and southeast Colorado as an upper level trough crosses the northern Plains. This will briefly bring an end to the rain chances on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A dry start to later periods expected but how long with this break in precipitation last? The duration of this break in the rain late week into the weekend depends on the timing of our next upper wave embedded in the westerly flow across the Central Rockies and West Central High Plains. As this upper wave or any upper wave after this on exits the Rockies and moves out into the Plains over the weekend or even early next week, there will be a chance for thunderstorms given late day instability near and east of a surface boundary over eastern Colorado and a moist upslope flow north of this boundary. The exact timing and location of these storms in southwest Kansas remain uncertain due to the dependence on the surface boundary`s position, influenced by the previous night`s precipitation and the mid level baroclinic zones location. If the models are accurate, the best chances for widespread rainfall across southwest Kansas will be Saturday night and possibly Sunday night. After this, warming mid level temperatures will shift the favorable track of storms northward towards the Nebraska border. Mean 700mb temperatures from the ensembles will range from 10 to 15C early next week, which will not only favor temperatures climbing back into the 90s but also limit the chance for convection in southwest Kansas. Given the recent rainfall however, the warm-up will not be as dramatic as it could have been, as much of the heating will go into evapotranspiration. This would keep temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s longer, but the humidity will make it feel warmer in locations where the heavier rainfall has occurred or will occur. Could see some locations experience heat index values in the upper 90s early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Scattered thunderstorms will be possible early this Thursday morning as upper level trough will crosses western Kansas. Based on the moisture and lift ahead of this upper trough it appears the best chance for convection through early Thursday morning will be near and north of a Garden City to Dodge City line. Ceilings in and near these storms will range from 5000 to 1000ft AGL but a period of 1000 to 2000ft AGL ceilings can not be ruled out between 12z and 18z Today. HREF has a 20% or less of these lower ceiling occurring. Once these morning storms end there will be a brief break in the weather with another round of thunderstorms returning to western Kansas after 18z today as moisture and lift improves along a surface boundary that will be located ahead of a stronger upper level trough approaching from the west. Ceilings with these late day/evening storms will be at or above 3500ft AGL but these storms late day will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall which will result in a 20-40% chance for local visibilities to be <4 miles due to heavy rainfall based on the latest HREF. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert