634
FXUS63 KDDC 301825
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
125 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather and localized flash flooding risk for tonight

- Several days of overnight convection is expected for western
  Kansas

- Warmer temperatures expected early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

18z observations show a residual cloud deck in our eastern zones
from the morning convection which produced widespread 1-2 inch
rainfall amounts roughly from a Leoti-Lakin line to St. John-
Medicine Lodge. Sunshine in our western zones into eastern
Colorado and New Mexico have destabilized the atmosphere and
updrafts and cumulus towers are showing up on satellite and
radar along an outflow boundary in northeast New Mexico and the
far western Oklahoma panhandle. An upper level shortwave is also
developing over the Colorado rockies.

Tonight two areas of convection are forecast as we will see
storms move from southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas late
this afternoon and evening. While the CAPE values in the 0-3 km
range are low the mixing layer CAPE is forecast to be in the
2000-3000 J/kg range for areas from Syracuse to Liberal. Bulk
shear values will be fairly low (around 30-35 kts for the 0-6 km
shear). These areas will have the highest severe risk as pulsing
storms could see brief periods of hail up to half dollar size
and with high PW (around 1 inch) and forecast DCAPE in the
1300-1500 range we could also see some wet microburst gusts in
the 50-65 kt range. Later tonight a second wave in northeast
Colorado will develop storms in northwest Kansas and these
storms should be strong to marginally severe with mainly
localized heavy rainfall over almost the same spots that
received the higher rainfall last night. Storm motion is also
forecast to be slow at around 15 kts so localized flash flooding
will be possible from both areas of storms.

Friday storms should quickly diminish and exit after sunrise and
we should see breaks in the clouds mainly in our western zones
during the day to help destabilize the atmosphere by afternoon.
Highs should reach into the lower 80s in the west and mid to
upper 70s in the east.

Friday night with an upper level shortwave coming out of eastern
Colorado another overnight MCS is expected to move through
western Kansas. Severe risk should be less as the CAPE values
look to be around 1000 J/kg by the time the storms reach Kansas.
Rainfall once again with this overnight convection could be
locally heavy in spots with many areas receiving another 0.25
inches in general.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A dry start to later periods expected but how long with this
break in precipitation last? The duration of this break in the
rain late week into the weekend depends on the timing of our
next upper wave embedded in the westerly flow across the Central
Rockies and West Central High Plains. As this upper wave or any
upper wave after this on exits the Rockies and moves out into
the Plains over the weekend or even early next week, there will
be a chance for thunderstorms given late day instability near
and east of a surface boundary over eastern Colorado and a moist
upslope flow north of this boundary.  The exact timing and
location of these storms in southwest Kansas remain uncertain
due to the dependence on the surface boundary`s position,
influenced by the previous night`s precipitation and the mid level
baroclinic zones location. If the models are accurate, the best
chances for widespread rainfall across southwest Kansas will be
Saturday night and possibly Sunday night.

After this, warming mid level temperatures will shift the
favorable track of storms northward towards the Nebraska border.
Mean 700mb temperatures from the ensembles will range from 10
to 15C early next week, which will not only favor temperatures
climbing back into the 90s but also limit the chance for
convection in southwest Kansas. Given the recent rainfall
however, the warm-up will not be as dramatic as it could have
been, as much of the heating will go into evapotranspiration.
This would keep temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
longer, but the humidity will make it feel warmer in locations
where the heavier rainfall has occurred or will occur. Could see
some locations experience heat index values in the upper 90s
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Two areas of thunderstorms are forecast to develop. A line along
the Kansas-Oklahoma border is forecast to develop around 21Z
and will be in the vicinity of LBL between 23-02Z. These storms
could contain heavy rain and downburst winds over 50 kts. A
second line of storms will move in from northwest Kansas after
03Z and affect GCK, HYS, and DDC terminals between 04-12Z. After
the storms diminish and move out residual cloud cover will lead
to MVFR flight categories for GCK, DDC, and HYS with HYS seeing
IFR flight category at times between 11-14Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro