452
FXUS63 KDDC 302247
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
547 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather and localized flash flooding risk for tonight

- Several days of overnight convection is expected for western
  Kansas

- Warmer temperatures expected early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

18z observations show a residual cloud deck in our eastern zones
from the morning convection which produced widespread 1-2 inch
rainfall amounts roughly from a Leoti-Lakin line to St. John-
Medicine Lodge. Sunshine in our western zones into eastern
Colorado and New Mexico have destabilized the atmosphere and
updrafts and cumulus towers are showing up on satellite and
radar along an outflow boundary in northeast New Mexico and the
far western Oklahoma panhandle. An upper level shortwave is also
developing over the Colorado rockies.

Tonight two areas of convection are forecast as we will see
storms move from southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas late
this afternoon and evening. While the CAPE values in the 0-3 km
range are low the mixing layer CAPE is forecast to be in the
2000-3000 J/kg range for areas from Syracuse to Liberal. Bulk
shear values will be fairly low (around 30-35 kts for the 0-6 km
shear). These areas will have the highest severe risk as pulsing
storms could see brief periods of hail up to half dollar size
and with high PW (around 1 inch) and forecast DCAPE in the
1300-1500 range we could also see some wet microburst gusts in
the 50-65 kt range. Later tonight a second wave in northeast
Colorado will develop storms in northwest Kansas and these
storms should be strong to marginally severe with mainly
localized heavy rainfall over almost the same spots that
received the higher rainfall last night. Storm motion is also
forecast to be slow at around 15 kts so localized flash flooding
will be possible from both areas of storms.

Friday storms should quickly diminish and exit after sunrise and
we should see breaks in the clouds mainly in our western zones
during the day to help destabilize the atmosphere by afternoon.
Highs should reach into the lower 80s in the west and mid to
upper 70s in the east.

Friday night with an upper level shortwave coming out of eastern
Colorado another overnight MCS is expected to move through
western Kansas. Severe risk should be less as the CAPE values
look to be around 1000 J/kg by the time the storms reach Kansas.
Rainfall once again with this overnight convection could be
locally heavy in spots with many areas receiving another 0.25
inches in general.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A fairly persistent forecast through Sunday night as we should
see a couple more rounds of overnight rain across western
Kansas. Ensembles continue to show the upper flow being mainly
zonal and with the westerlies going over the Rockies we should
continue to see a train of shortwaves moving in from eastern
Colorado in the late afternoon to evening hours. Saturday and
Sunday night both have ensembles showing a complex of storms
moving through western Kansas and 30-70% probabilities of at
least 0.1 inch of rain across the whole area Saturday night and
these probabilities along and east of highway 283 Sunday night.
Severe threat will be higher on Saturday as it looks like the
storms will form along the Kansas-Colorado border in the late
afternoon after the destabilization from the heating of the day
and a shortwave moving through.

Rain chances diminish early next week as a ridge overtakes much
of the desert southwest and warmer air will overspread the
central and southern plains. Long term models are showing highs
in the lower 90s with the box and whisker plots showing a range
that would include upper 90 potential for highs from Monday
through Wednesday. We likely won`t get that warm with the wet
ground however with the ample lower level moisture we could see
heat index values easily into the upper 90s to lower 100s. By
next Wednesday the ensembles are showing a stronger longwave
trough moving into the northern plains which should bring cooler
air to our region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 546 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Light wind and VFR sky conditions are the prevailing
expectedness with the caveats of 1) Low probability of heavy
rain/gusty/damaging wind producing thunderstorms near the OK/KS
line early (00-02Z) in vicinity KLBL and 2) another broken line
of convection much later this evening (03-06z) that could
potentially impact GCK or HYS, but confidence is quite low with
timing or occurrence as the convective allowing models have not
been consistent between. After the convection this evening,
areal coverage of MVFR, and areas of IFR stratus will be the
challenge overnight and into the 10-14z timeframe.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Russell