254
FXUS63 KDDC 180340
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1040 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong warming trend will continue through the weekend, with
  afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and east of US 283
  Sunday afternoon. Some storms are expected to be severe with
  large hail the primary risk.

- Cooler air is expected by midweek next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through tomorrow
afternoon. Lee troughing across eastern Colorado will help bring
southerly winds to western Kansas through tomorrow morning. A weak
frontal boundary will then slide through a majority of the area
tomorrow, then advect northward tomorrow afternoon. Winds behind
this frontal boundary will generally be from a northerly
direction. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across
our northern zones tomorrow night, otherwise expect an increase
in cloudiness. Above normal temperatures are expected through
the short term with lows tonight ranging from the low 50s across
west central Kansas with mid to upper 50s elsewhere. 850
temperatures ranging from the upper teens to low 20s tomorrow
afternoon should support highs reaching into the upper 80s to
low 90s. Short term ensemble models show a 30-70 percent chance
of temperatures above 92 degrees south of a line from Great Bend
to Elkhart. Lows tomorrow night are expected to range from the
low 50s across west central Kansas to low 60s across south
central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An upper level shortwave is expected to move out of the Four
Corners region Sunday morning and into the area Sunday
afternoon/evening. A strong dryline is expected to develop along
the US 283 corridor Sunday afternoon, with strong instability
east of the boundary. Dewpoints well into the 60s and CAPE >
3,000 J/kg are expected in the warm sector east of the dryline.
Ensembles suggest convective initiation along the dryline around
4-5 pm, in an environment of instability and shear clearly
supportive of supercells. Strong consensus that any severe
threat will be focused on the northeast zones of the DDC CWA.
Even though trough timing with the diurnal heating cycle
currently looks favorable, initiation is far from certain with
such a strong EML spreading over SW KS at 700 mb. Sunday also
looks to be the warmest day of the long term forecast with highs
ranging from the upper 80s north to mid to upper 90s along the
KS/OK border.

A cold front is then expected to move through the area Monday.
A few isolated storms will be possible across our northern
zones, otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. The remainder
of the forecast looks dry as shortwaves move well north of the
area. As for temperatures, Highs Monday look to range from the
low 80s along the I-70 corridor where the cold front and
cloudiness will keep temps down to upper 90s along the KS/OK
border where the cold front is not expected to move through
until late. Highs then decrease into the 70s to mid 80s Tuesday
and Wednesday before rebounding into the 80s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF cycle,
with VFR/SKC and light winds. Light south winds currently will
trend light SWly at 12z Sat. After 15z Sat, light winds will
become northeast and increase modestly behind a weak dry cold
front, gusting 20-25 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner