Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211043
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
543 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

A cold front is progged to slowly ooze through Kansas today and
extend from northeast New Mexico to southeastern Nebraska by this
evening. Thunderstorms are expected to form along this boundary
late this afternoon and congeal into a line cluster this evening
into the overnight period. The atmosphere will be very unstable
this afternoon with the strongest storms being able to produce up
to 2 inch hail and winds up to 70 mph. As the storms congeal into
a line the hail threat will diminish and become more of a wind
threat. Scattered showers will continue to be possible overnight
with central Kansas having the best probabilities of this
occurring. Winds ahead of this front will be from the south with
winds behind this front from the northeast. A second shot of
cooler air will move in after midnight shifting winds to more of a
northerly direction. As for temperatures, highs today look to
reach into the low to mid 90s with lows tonight ranging from the
mid 50s across west central Kansas to mid 60s across south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

A few lingering storms will be possible across central Kansas
Sunday morning. High pressure builds into the area Sunday as the
aforementioned cold front continues to sag south of the area.
Skies will become mostly clear with below normal temperatures. Dry
conditions continue Monday with winds shift to a southerly
direction. The next chance of precipitation occurs Tuesday as a
weak disturbance moves through the area. A shortwave trough may
approach the southern high plains by late Thursday, with another
chance of thunderstorms. After Thursday, dry and hot weather can
be expected as the western United States upper level trough
amplifies, with ridging over the eastern plains and Midwest. As
for temperatures, highs look to only reach into the upper 70s then
rebound into the 80s through Wednesday. Another cool down into the
upper 70s will be possible Thursday then back into the 80s Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Low clouds will bring MVFR conditions to the HYS and DDC terminals
over the next few hours. Otherwise expect VFR conditions
throughout the day. A cold front will move through the area this
afternoon/evening with thunderstorms forming across the area.
Winds ahead of this front will be breezy and from the south
southwest and winds behind the cold front will generally be from
the northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  59  78  54 /  40  30  30   0
GCK  92  56  78  52 /  30  30  10   0
EHA  93  56  77  53 /  10  20   0   0
LBL  95  59  79  53 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  87  58  77  53 /  30  80  40   0
P28  89  66  79  57 /  30  50  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42


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