Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281040
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
540 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...Updated aviation discussion ...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

A strong upper level trough was moving out over the central High
Plains early this morning and was starting to close off per
indications from the latest water vapor imagery. At the surface,
low pressure had moved out of southeast Colorado and was tracking
across southern parts of the forecast area along the old frontal
boundary. Low stratus continues to hang tough to the north of the
front and areas of dense fog were also developing. This will
likely warrant another Dense Fog Advisory through sunrise. Short
term models show the fog dissipating fairly quickly from west to
east by then.

Through the rest of this morning, the surface low will deepen as
it tracks to the northeast toward eastern Nebraska. A strong
pressure gradient will develop across western Kansas today behind
the low. Westerly winds will be increasing across all of western
and central Kansas after sunrise and then continue to increase as
they slowly swing around to the northwest through this afternoon.
The strong winds will be the most significant impact today and are
expected to increase to around 25 to 35 mph with gusts into the
40 to 50 mph range. A few stronger gusts will be possible,
especially over central Kansas in the vicinity of Hays, this
afternoon.

As the upper low moves out, areas of light rain are expected to
develop and spread to the east northeast, especially along and
north of the Highway 50/56 corridor. This is already handled
pretty well in the going forecast but will also include a slight
chance for light rain farther south as some of the short term CAMs
are suggesting that possibility.

Rain chances will be ending from west to east and should be mostly
out of central Kansas by this evening. Likewise, winds will
diminish by this evening as the surface low continues to move away
from the region.

Tonight will be clear and cooler. A downslope component to the
winds should help keep temperatures from bottoming out too hard
but we should still see lows falling into the low to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

On Sunday, the central Plains will be in between systems. Weak
upper level ridging will be in place as todays storm moves into
the Great Lakes region and the next system digs into the Desert
Southwest. Should be a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and
high temperatures well into the 60s.

The next upper trough approaches the central and southern High
Plains on Monday. Return low level southerly flow will pull better
low level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 40s and low 50s) back
into southern and southwest Kansas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon. Instability
increases to around 1000 j/kg across western sections of the
forecast area, to the east of a dry line. Could be at least a
marginal threat for a few strong to severe storms. Otherwise, it
looks like a fairly decent rain maker for a good part of the area
except for the far west counties.

Later in the period, the models show a strong upper system moving
southeast across the northern Plains and Midwest with strong west
northwesterly flow extending south into the central Plains. This
should bring shot of cooler air to the region along with a slight
chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Areas of fog will get swept east out of the southwest and central
Kansas terminals through the early morning hours. A few areas of
very light rain could move into the Garden City and Dodge City
terminals during the late morning or early afternoon. IFR to MVFR
cigs will linger through much of the day before dissipating from
southwest to northeast by mid to late afternoon. Very strong northwest
winds will also impact operations at area terminals from mid morning
through the remainder of the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  33  65  42 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  54  31  64  39 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  56  33  65  38 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  58  31  65  39 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  52  34  65  40 /  50  10   0   0
P28  61  38  68  42 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ031-
044>046-063>066-076>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard



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