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000
FXUS63 KDDC 081911
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
211 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

...Updated Long Term Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

A few sprinkles or brief light rainshower will be possible this
afternoon near and southeast of Dodge City given an area of mid
level moisture and lift ahead of a subtle PV anomaly that moves
out of northwest Oklahoma and crosses south central Kansas. An
isolated rumble of thunder can not be completely ruled out.

This evening there may be a slight chance for evening convection
north and west of Garden City along a surface boundary that will
be located near the eastern edge of an elevated mixed layer that
will be located over eastern Colorado and ahead of an approaching
weak upper level wave based on the 400mb pvu. Another area that
may be favorable for a few evening thunderstorms will be near and
south of the Oklahoma border in far southwest Kansas given the
0-1km moisture convergence forecast at 00z Sunday. In both
locations the flow aloft this evening will be weak so if storms
develop they will not move much before dissipating but based on
the high based storms and mid level lapse rages should any storm
develop it may be capable of producing some gusty winds up to 50
mph.

Sunday will be another hot day based on the 850mb temperatures at
00z Monday that are forecast to be very similar to what they are
going to be late today (00z Sunday). Highs Sunday will once again
climb into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Models were in
decent agreement with an upper level disturbance crossing the West
Central High Plains early in the day which will move a surface
boundary into western Kansas by late day. Model soundings
indicating moisture in the lower levels will be limited but given
the heating expected during the day there may be a slight chance
for evening high based thunderstorms east of the elevated mixed
layer. Models today differ on just how far east this mixed layer
will move into southwest Kansas during the day so have decided to
stay close with the previous forecast on location of convection
Sunday night. This may need to be adjusted a little further west
if the NAM verifies with the further west solution. Mid level
lapse rates greater than 8C/km and high cloud bases these storms
may be capable of producing some isolated winds of 50 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

A surface boundary/cold front will settle into northern Kansas on
Monday but the westerly flow across the Rockies and warm 850mb
temperatures that will still be in place south of this surface
boundary continues to support highs in the upper 90s to near 100
degrees. If the models are close to being correct of the location
of the surface boundary the warmest temperatures on Monday will be
mainly south of the Arkansas River.

Several upper waves embedded in the westerly flow will cross the
central Plains from Monday through Wednesday and with each upper
level wave there will be a chance for thunderstorms. Timing and
track of these upper level systems are still a little unclear as
is where any lingering surface boundaries will be located after
each previous event. At this time based on the latest GFS and
ECMWF it currently appears that the better chances for measurable
precipitation across western Kansas will accompany the Monday
night and midweek systems.

Temperatures mid to late week will not be as hot as the
temperatures expected later this afternoon (Saturday) and again on
Sunday but highs will be seasonal for the middle of August. Highs
in the 90s are expected through the end of the upcoming work
week.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Afternoon clouds in the 9000 to 15000 ft AGL level will develop
this afternoon with even an isolated thunderstorm being possible
west of a Garden City to Liberal line. These clouds and any isolated
storm that may develop will dissipate this evening after sunset.
BUFR soundings show a 45 to 50knot low level jet developing across
southwest Kansas after 03z Sunday so will be inserting a a wind
shear group into the 18z TAFS. The winds today will be southerly
at 15 to near 20 knots. These gusty south winds will subside to 10
to 15 knots between 02z and 04z Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  98  70  93 /  10   0  20  20
GCK  68  96  67  91 /  10   0  20  20
EHA  69  99  68  95 /  10   0  20  10
LBL  71  99  68  97 /  10   0  20  10
HYS  72  98  69  91 /   0   0  20  30
P28  74  99  72  96 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert