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000
FXUS63 KDDC 092331
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
631 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Main concern in the Short Term period is strength, longevity,
placement of tonight`s forecast mesoscale convective system (MCS).
Mid-afternoon thunderstorm activity was already underway across
northwest KS extending east-southeast across the I-70 corridor down
into central and south central KS. Much of this activity was just
outside the boundary of the DDC forecast area, however the
expectation is that there will be a slow expansion southward of the
I-70 activity down toward the Highway 96 corridor through the late
afternoon and early evening. This will likely merge with southeast
Colorado storms later in the evening, eventually forming the well-
advertised MCS as it marches across KS tonight.

Short term convective-allowing models (CAMs), particularly the HRRR
have been quite consistent with the track of the MCS tonight from
southeast CO into the bulk of southwest KS, which is why POPs were
increased to 60 to 80 percent over a larger portion of our southwest
KS region. The ongoing storms this afternoon were north of the best
vertical wind shear environment, so these initial storms were rather
disorganized, although the coverage of convection was quite numerous
and will continue to expand in coverage through the evening. There
is a Slight Risk of severe from the SPC, mainly far southwest Kansas
where storms in this region will be much closer to the better shear.
The MCS will clear our region early Saturday morning, and for the
better part of the day, southwest Kansas will be in a region of
subsidence behind the MCS and its leftover mesoscale convective
vorticity (MCV) anomaly. The June airmass will recover by late
afternoon with temperatures warming into the mid 80s for a high,
although tomorrow afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
confined to mainly northern Kansas and northeastern Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

A rather strong cold front will push south late Saturday Night,
which will bring cooler air into southwest Kansas on northeasterly
winds. Both Sunday and Monday look particularly cool on the latest
model runs. Highs have been lowered both days, especially Monday. In
fact, the airmass Monday looks cool enough that once we get into a
post-frontal upslope regime, widespread low stratus cloud cover is
likely to break out on Monday, especially the western DDC CWA region
which would really curtail any decent warmup. Meanwhile, yet another
robust Pacific jet streak will be advancing on the Southern Rockies
and High Plains by late Monday-Monday Night. This will induce low
pressure to our south/southwest, enhancing low level upslope flow
with pretty good moisture advection. Monday Night, it certainly
appears there will be another formidable MCS developing out across
eastern Colorado moving into adjacent far western/southwestern
Kansas late in the evening/overnight. The stubborn remnant cool
airmass will be augmented by any MCS activity, such that Tuesday
will also probably be pretty cool, and this is also reflected in the
latest forecast with highs in the 73 to 77F range across much of
southwest and west central KS. The polar frontal zone will remain in
place across the southern/central Plains with a pretty good west-
southwest to east-northeast oriented upper level jet in vicinity of
the frontal zone mid-week. This will favor multiple rounds of shower
and thunderstorm activity until the jet finally clears our region
later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Convection and winds over the next 6 to 9 hours will be the main
focus this Friday evening.

Gusty north winds from an outflow boundary from the convection
north of Garden City and in the Hays area was moving south at 23z
Friday and is expected to produce a wind shift in the Dodge City
and Garden City areas from the south at 10 to 20 knots to the
east at 10 to 20 knots between 01z and 03z Saturday. This wind
shift will be follow by a more pronounced shift in the winds
between 03z and 06z Saturday as a cluster of strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms roll across southwest Kansas. As these storms
cross western Kansas the southeast to easterly winds at 1 to 20
knots will shift to the west north winds and increase into the 25
to 30 knot range. Wind gusts in excess of 40 knots will be
possible at times along with reduced visibility due to heavy
rainfall. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds from these thunderstorms
will taper off from west to east between 06z and 09z Saturday.
After 09z Saturday...VFR conditions can be expected.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  87  59  78 /  60  20  30   0
GCK  59  85  58  78 /  80  20  20   0
EHA  57  84  57  79 /  60  10  10   0
LBL  59  85  59  80 /  80  10  20   0
HYS  62  87  60  77 /  60  40  50  10
P28  65  86  64  81 /  70  30  30   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert