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040
FXUS63 KDDC 142242
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
442 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 352 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Complicated winter weather forecast over the next 36 to 48 hours or
so, as a low-amplitude upper level pattern with a jet core and mid-
level baroclinic zone will be positioned across Kansas. An initial,
elongated wave will move out of the Rockies and across the Central
Plains tonight into Sunday. Development in the lower troposphere,
centered around 850mb, will occur in response to the initial wave,
and the increased southeast upslope winds will result in increased
low level stratus and perhaps some patchy freezing drizzle,
particularly in the 09-18Z time frame. The confidence in how
significant this drizzle event will be is quite low, as it is really
only the NAM and WRF-NMMB models suggesting any drizzle development.
Above 800mb, however, the flow becomes westerly fairly quick,
although this layer from 800 to 600mb will be highly baroclinic
(strong temperature gradient), which is why most of the models
suggest at least some areas of snow (and perhaps some sleet
initially) development across west central Kansas and especially
farther east across central Kansas. The official grids will reflect
one half to one inch of snow, particularly north of the Arkansas
River through Sunday afternoon.

The next, more significant wave will then be approaching Sunday
evening, which will take a more southern track. The second wave
moving out of southern Colorado Sunday Night will likely enhance the
frontogenesis centered around 700mb, supporting a more widespread
light snow, and perhaps locally moderate snow for a short period
along the weak 700mb low track. None of the global models really
close off a 700mb circulation (although the slightly stronger NAM
actually does), so what will likely happen is there will only be a
southwest to northeast oriented band of light accumulating snow
developing late Sunday Night, south of the Arkansas River down into
the northern TX and OK Panhandles, which will then move east through
the 09-18Z Monday time frame into south central Kansas.

It is now looking more likely that this second wave affecting mainly
the southern part of the forecast area (and especially south and
east of a Meade to Bucklin to Stafford line) will see the greatest
snowfall amounts...versus the northern portion of our forecast area.
This is why it was important for us to try and convey large
uncertainty in previous forecasts, especially since we are dealing
with more than one low amplitude, open-wave systems along an
extended jet core. These tend to be the most challenging forecast
scenarios with respect to locating precipitation axes. All said,
given higher confidence now in the southern areas seeing more winter
precipitation, we will add a few counties to the ongoing Winter
Weather Advisory along the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

There wasn`t much time to assess the Long Term period (Monday Night
and beyond) given the complexities of the Short Term forecast. The
entire Long Term time frame is forecast to be dry, with temperatures
warming back up into the 50s mid-week as large scale ridging
redevelops across the western half of the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 442 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

High confidence that flight categories will degrade quickly
tonight, in response to a cold, moist upslope surface flow. All
models spread IFR stratus ceilings across SW Kansas tonight
through Sunday morning, and some ceilings may fall to LIFR at
times. Fog is not expected, as such, kept any visibility
restrictions due to BR modest in the TAFs. Airports are expected
to remain dry through the balance of the night, outside of some
patchy light drizzle/freezing drizzle toward 12z Sun. Expect light
snow to break out in the vicinity of HYS in the 09-12z Sun time
frame, and included a TEMPO group for snow for several hours at
HYS 12-15z Sun. Elsewhere, light snow is possible at the other
airports by the end of this TAF cycle. SEly surface winds
currently will back to easterly and then NEly through tonight and
Sunday, averaging 8-15 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  31  19  37 /  20  40  50  30
GCK  22  31  19  37 /  10  30  50  30
EHA  26  36  20  39 /  10  20  50  10
LBL  25  35  19  39 /  10  20  50  20
HYS  20  28  15  34 /  30  60  60  40
P28  27  33  20  37 /  20  50  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
KSZ030-031-043>046-064>066-079>081-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner