Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 120557
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1157 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1040 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

Widespread thick cirrostratus prevailed across the central and
southern plains as of late morning. Strong shortwave near the
Black Hills currently, will swing through Nebraska through this
evening, pushing an attendant weak cold front and NWly wind shift
through SW KS. NW winds will gust 25-30 mph for a few hours this
afternoon, and cirrus will rapidly clear from west to east around
sunset. Despite the cirrus, afternoon temperatures well above
normal in the 50s.

Clear tonight with lows in the 20s.

Wednesday will be pleasant for December standards, with much more
sunshine, and temperatures again well above normal in the 50s.
SW winds of 10-20 mph by late Wednesday morning will back to a
more southerly direction through the afternoon, as an intense
shortwave and jet dynamics dive SE through the Great Basin. In
response to the incoming energy, 12z NAM/GFS develop their
initial surface low in the Baca county, CO/Cimarron county, OK
vicinity by 6 pm. This synoptic evolution will keep the winds at
bay with no impacts expected through the daylight hours Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

...Intense North Winds Expected Thursday...

Model agreement is improving on the advertised strong winter storm
projected to pass south of SW KS on Thursday. 12z GFS/ECMWF both
rapidly close off a deep cyclone near Lubbock, TX early Thursday
morning, and then track the center of the strengthening, closed
upper low to near Dallas, TX around 6 pm Thursday. This track will
keep most, if not all, accumulating rain and/or snow south of us
again, across Oklahoma and Texas. Have noted 12z GFS spreads light
snow further northward, hugging the Kansas/Oklahoma border, late
Wednesday night through Thursday. Pop grids were retained for
light rain/snow showers given the GFS solutions, but ECMWF would
suggest our forecast is too wet. At any rate, rain/snow amounts,
if any, would be very light anyway, and not a concern in
themselves. The concern is that any snow showers developing in the
forecasted high wind event, would deliver serious visibility
impacts in a hurry. This potential will need to be monitored, but
again the 12z ECMWF suggests most locations in SW KS will remain
dry.

We have high confidence of intense north winds across Kansas as
this storm strengthens and passes to our south. After extensive
coordination with neighboring NWS offices, have opted to issue a
high wind watch for all counties (except the northern six
counties) for Thursday. For Scott, Lane, Ness, Rush, Trego and
Ellis counties, the north winds will be certainly very strong
there as well, but am not confident they will reach high wind
warning criteria (40 mph sustained/58 mph gust) along and north of K-
96. Confidence in high wind warning criteria being achieved
increases with southern extent, with the highest confidence along
the Oklahoma border. Across our southern zones, several models
continue to suggest that wind gusts as high as 70 mph may occur.
Models continue to paint a bimodal distribution in forecasted wind
velocity, with one peak occurring with the initial cold frontal
surge down the plains late Wednesday night, and then another peak
around maximum mixing approximately midday Thursday. In both
cases, the strongest winds are expected south of US highway 50,
nearest the deepening cyclone to the south, and some minor
structural damage is possible. Models for the past two days have
consistently suggested the strongest winds in our CWA will occur
in the Liberal vicinity, and this thinking was retained when
developing the grids and forecast. Areas of dust are likely in
these areas, locally reducing visibility. Mentioned both areas of
blowing dust and snow in the high wind watch product, with higher
confidence with verifying dust. Thursday will certainly be much
cooler, but with limited cold air advection behind this Pacific
system, temperatures will only fall back to near mid-December
normals in the 40s.

N/NW winds will diminish gradually Thursday evening, and allowed
the high wind watch to end at 6 pm Thursday.

Friday through next Tuesday...That`s about it for weather
excitement or impacts for quite a while. Closed low in the lower
Mississippi valley Friday edges east, allowing ridging to expand
northward through the Desert SW and Rockies. This ridge axis
phases east onto the plains Saturday, providing beautiful weather
for December standards. Afternoon temperatures in the 50s will be
commonplace. A weak shortwave/cold front will dent our mild
pattern Sunday with a wind shift, followed by another ridge axis
Monday and Tuesday for more quiet delightful weather. Extended
12z ECMWF for Dec 19-20 is also very quiet, with dry NW flow aloft
and established PNA across North America. High confidence on a dry
forecast for quite some time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

Winds will become southerly between 16-18z ahead of a cold front
and then shift to the north toward the end of the period. Much
stronger north winds are expected just after the period. VFR
conditions can be expected with only some mid to high level
clouds, but MVFR CIGS are possible after the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  56  31  42 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  21  56  28  42 /   0   0  30   0
EHA  27  58  29  44 /   0   0  30  10
LBL  22  56  30  44 /   0   0  20  10
HYS  25  55  30  42 /   0   0  10  10
P28  28  54  33  43 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon for KSZ043>045-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch


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