Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday and Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

After an active evening across the western counties, with some
severe hail and flash flooding across mainly Kearny and Grant
counties, the expected thunderstorm complex is progressing
eastward across SW KS as of midnight in a weakened state.
Widespread light to moderate rainfall will occur over the central
and eastern zones over the next several hours through sunrise, but
a lack of more substantial CAPE has weakened the previously
stronger storms greatly. Should just be a gentle beneficial
rainfall for most locales through the night. Rain and embedded
thunder will be focused across the northeast and eastern zones by
sunrise along the shortwave trough axis.

As the shortwave trough axis pivots eastward, most of the rain and
thunderstorms will be in central Kansas by noon. Nearest the
578 dm closed low in NE Nebraska, and the cold pool aloft,
scattered showers will likely persist much of the day along the
I-70 corridor including Hays. Areas of low stratus this morning
will break up some through the day, with sunshine most prevalent
south and west of Dodge City. Have noticed the 00z MET/NAM
guidance has increased the magnitude of the north winds expected
today, forecasting about 20 mph sustained during the midday hours,
and this certainly makes sense given such an unusually strong
shortwave for August. Increased the wind/wind gust grids some
toward the 00z MET, but some gusts near 30 mph certainly seem
plausible. Between the clouds, showers and north winds, confident
that the NE zones will remain in the 70s this afternoon.
Elsewhere, split the difference between the cooler MET and warmer
MAV guidance, with max temperatures in the lower 80s at most
locations. This is about 10 degrees below August normals. The
north winds will provide some free air conditioning; open the
windows and enjoy.

Tonight...clouds and some lingering showers are expected to
persist much of the night across the NE zones, preventing full
radiational cooling. 00z NAM forecasts a respectable 1022 mb
surface high over eastern Colorado by sunrise Monday, impressive
for late summer. Nearest this surface high and where the sky has
cleared, low to mid 50s are expected across the NW zones sunrise

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Dry weather returns to SW KS on Monday. Impressive 575 dm closed
low near Kansas City Monday morning will eject NE to SE Iowa
through Monday afternoon. Strong subsidence behind this system
will clear the sky nicely, with full sunshine. Despite the August
insolation, north winds will maintain cool advection through the
day, holding 850 mb temperatures in the teens C. Many locations
will hold in the upper 70s (normal is near 90). 00z GFS forecasts
850 mb winds of about 30 mph midday Monday, so north wind gusts of
that magnitude are expected. A refreshing early taste of fall.

Daylight Tuesday will be dry, courtesy of a 595 dm upper high
building over NW TX. Despite strongly rising heights, surface
winds will maintain an easterly component and keep afternoon
temperatures well below normal again. Max temperatures upper 70s
NE ranging to upper 80s SW.

Models remain consistent regarding our next round of convective
potential Tuesday night, as a shortwave crests the W TX ridge, and
thunderstorms move into SW KS overnight. Forecast builder came up
with likely pops favoring the northern zones Tuesday night, and
these were retained with 00z ECMWF offering good agreement.

Wednesday through next weekend, the TX upper high relocates to the
SE U.S. This is a much hotter and drier pattern for Kansas, with
SW flow aloft and afternoon temperatures returning to the lower to
mid 90s. Forecast model blends and 00z MEX have highs in the 92-95
range Friday. It is still summer.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Rain has ended at GCK, LBL and DDC as of 10z, and steady rain will
ending at HYS over the next hour. In the very moist boundary layer
left behind last night`s storm complex, areas of stratus have
developed. Ceilings will be lowered to IFR at times through about
15z Sun. After 15z Sun, north winds will increase at all airports
behind the departing storm system, with gusts in the 22-25 kt
range. Stratus will erode during the midday hours, but midlayer
cigs and scattered showers will persist much of the day near HYS.
North winds will diminish temporarily around 00z Mon, but models
depict an increase in NW winds by 06z Mon, in response to 1022 mb
surface high pressure building over eastern Colorado.


DDC  82  62  79  56 /  20  20   0   0
GCK  82  59  80  54 /  20  10   0   0
EHA  83  58  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  83  61  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  76  61  77  57 /  90  30  10   0
P28  81  64  82  60 /  80  20   0   0




LONG TERM...Turner
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