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000
FXUS63 KDDC 212221
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
521 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

Satellite imagery at midday showed thick stratus blanketing SW KS,
although the strong May sunshine was starting to poke some holes
into the stratus deck across the eastern zones. Decreasing clouds
are expected Saturday afternoon as the stratus gradually erodes.
North winds have been elevated this morning, gusting near 30 mph,
but the north winds will relax quickly this afternoon as surface
high pressure ridging begins establishing. Temperatures at midday
were impressively cold for late May, struggling through the 40s
and lower 50s. With some afternoon sun and cold advection
diminishing, most locations will reach the upper 50s to near 60
in the late afternoon. This is about 20 degrees below normal for
May 21st.

Surface high pressure ridging will strengthen to 1028-1029 mb over
Kansas through sunrise Sunday, keeping winds light and variable.
This argues for strong radiational cooling, and clearly
temperatures will be unseasonably cold and well below normal
through Sunday morning. However, all model soundings show a broken
to overcast midlevel cloud deck persisting overnight through
sunrise, which will prevent full radiational cooling potential.
A frost advisory headline is not planned, with temperatures
expected to be a mix of upper 30s and lower 40s early Sunday. If
clouds fail to hold, some locations will easily drop to the mid
30s. Gardeners will want to protect at least the most sensitive
vegetation tonight and Sunday morning.

Sunday is expected to be about 10 degrees warmer over Saturday,
but still well below late May normals (lower 80s). Models show
a net increase of about +5C at 850 mb, supporting mid to upper 60s
by 4 pm at most locations. Winds will trend southeast and become
elevated/gusty in the afternoon, as high pressure retreats
northeastward, and return flow establishes.

The atmosphere is expected to saturate Sunday night, especially
after midnight, as a Colorado shortwave approaches, maintaining
southeast winds and moisture advection. Areas of light rain are
expected to break out toward sunrise, with milder temperatures in
the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

...Beneficial Rainfall Expected Monday and Tuesday...

12z models maintain continuity from previous runs, slowly dragging
a long wave trough eastward from the Rockies across the high
plains, late Monday through early Wednesday. Various vorticity
maxima embedded in this trough will ignite multiple rounds of
rain, with model consensus showing the heaviest rain will fall
Monday, Monday night and early Tuesday. 12z ECMWF suggests
dryslotting will arrive late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the main
trough axis arrives. Before then though, 12z ECMWF and WPC
guidance agree on a 0.5-1 inch rainfall across the NW 1/2 of the
CWA, with much higher amounts (as high as 2-3 inches) across the
southeast zones (southeast of Dodge City). NBM pops continue to be
well into the likely category (to definite southeast) and these
were accepted. Very atypical for late May, models show little if
any MU CAPE through the entirety of this trough`s passage. Perhaps
a few hundred CAPE J/kg from time to time adjacent to Oklahoma.
As such, a gentle soaking rain is favored, with no severe weather,
despite the time of year. Kept limited thunder in the grids out of
respect for climatology, but honestly believe lightning will be
very hard to come by. This system will obviously not end the long
term drought, but any rain we can get in the growing season is
tremendously helpful. With clouds and rain Monday and Tuesday
blocking out the strong May sun, afternoon temperatures will
remain well below normal. As surface winds turn easterly Monday,
expect highs ranging from the mid 50s at Hays to mid 70s at
Elkhart. Cold front associated with the trough`s passage is
expected around Monday night/early Tuesday, and the addition of
this boundary is expected to focus the heavier rainfall,
particularly southeast zones. Northeast winds will be breezy and
elevated Tuesday behind the front, and with lingering rain,
afternoon temperatures will struggle to get to 60 (about 20
degrees below normal for late May).

The sky is expected to clear Wednesday, as the trough axis finally
drags its way east of SW KS, and subsidence takes over. A rapid
warming trend will ensue, with afternoon temperatures in the 60s
Wednesday, 75-85 Thursday, 85-95 Friday, and well into the 90s
next Saturday.

12z ECMWF places a strong hot midlevel anticyclone over Sonora
Mexico 7 pm Friday. Hot air at 850 mb originating from the
Mexican plateau will spread across the high plains on strong
southerly flow Friday and Saturday into the Memorial Day weekend.
The dryline will reestablish by Saturday, with some moisture and
CAPE returning, but models also show intense convective inhibition
and a strong EML with 700 mb temperatures as warm as +16C
Saturday. The forecast will remain quiet and unseasonably devoid
of convection Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 519 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022


Bottom line is 1) No visibility issues and 2) ceilings will very
likely have no operational impact to local terminals (VFR).

A massive area of surface high pressure extends from the northern
Plains of Montana southward to the cold front in Texas. Still an
upper jet positioned form Colorado into Iowa will remain an impetus
for continued cloud cover overspreading the local DDC area overnight
and Sunday. A deeper dive of models in the boundary layer indicate
very dry profiles - and average expectations from model fields show
forecast ceilings remaining above about 5kft, and probably even
higher.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  69  46  62 /   0   0  20  60
GCK  39  67  45  63 /   0   0  30  60
EHA  40  68  47  75 /   0   0  20  60
LBL  40  68  46  68 /   0   0  20  60
HYS  40  67  45  55 /   0   0  30  80
P28  43  70  49  62 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Russell