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000
FXUS63 KDDC 181119
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

A strong upper level shortwave trough was over the central High
Plains early this morning. An associated area of low pressure at
the surface was moving out of eastern Kansas toward the mid
Mississippi Valley. A strong pressure gradient in the wake of the
low was over central and western Kansas. Strong uni-directional
flow through the mid levels was in place and this was resulting in
wind gusts around 40-50 mph in several locations. As the surface
features continue east, winds will diminish from west to east as
well. Some gusty winds should continue after sunrise but think
that by midday, winds should settle down into the 10-20 mph range.
Surface high pressure moves into western Kansas later this
afternoon and winds should become light and variable. With a
cooler airmass in place today, highs will remain in the mid 40s in
spite of more sunshine.

By later today into tonight, we will see some increasing high
level cloudiness given some weakly cyclonic westerly flow aloft.
The upper level flow becomes more northwesterly tonight into
Sunday. This will allow another surge of Canadian high pressure to
move south into the northern Plains and Midwest on Sunday. The
bulk of this high pressure and cooler air will remain east of the
forecast area but will have enough impact to bring somewhat cooler
temperatures to central Kansas on Sunday. Areas over far southwest
Kansas should see a bit of a warming trend with temperatures
warming into the 50s on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

An upper level ridge will move east over the central CONUS through
the early part of next week. This will bring a modest warming trend
to western and central Kansas through Wednesday. The latter part
of next week is still looking more active as a train of upper level
disturbances move east out of the Pacific and toward the central
Plains. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty between the various
model solutions as well as run to run continuity within individual
models as to how much development the shortwave trough on Wednesday
night and Thursday will undergo. The GFS is pretty aggressive in
developing an upper low from the northern Rockies into the Panhandle
region by Thursday. A few of the GFS ensemble members do this as
well but the bulk of the members keep the system as an open wave.
The ECMWF and GEM show some upper low development as well. The
official forecast of a chance for rain and/or snow across a good
part of central and southwest Kansas looks good at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 519 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

Gusty north winds will continue for a few hours after sunrise but
should diminish across the southwest Kansas terminals this morning
and at the Hays terminal by this afternoon. VFR conditions will
prevail through this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  23  46  16 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  44  20  47  17 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  46  24  51  21 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  45  21  49  17 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  19  38  11 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  24  45  17 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard