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000
FXUS63 KDDC 290425
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
Issued by National Weather Service Goodland KS
1125 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...Update to aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The much-anticipated main precipitation event was just beginning to
blossom per radar and satellite trends as of 20Z. It still appears
there will be a sharp demarcation between the "haves" versus the
"have nots" regarding appreciable rain tonight. Even at this final,
main forecast update before the event, trying to figure out exactly
where the deformation zone will shape up later this evening is
difficult, since the main precipitation shield was just developing
in the late afternoon. Areas northwest of roughly Johnson to Garden
City to Ness City to La Crosse are unfortunately going to see little
to no precipitation tonight. Southeast of the line, the
precipitation amounts will ramp up quite a bit. The latest forecast
calls for 1-inch or more southeast of Hugoton to Dodge City to
Kinsley to St. John. The big winner in our forecast area will likely
be Clark, Kiowa, Pratt and especially Comanche and Barber County
where much of this area will see 1.75 to perhaps as much as 2.5
inches of rain between early this afternoon and sunrise Thursday.

Regarding precipitation type, all indications are that boundary
layer temperatures will just be too warm for anything other then a
plain cold rain, which includes the far southwest counties. Now, it
can`t be ruled out that Oklahoma border areas like Elkhart to
Liberal to Englewood could see a period heavy, wet snow, but the
probability of even moderate impacts are too low to warrant a Winter
Weather Advisory. The evening shift will need to continue monitoring
this, however it certainly appears the heavy snow aspect of this
main event will be closer to the upper center itself, across the
Texas Panhandle.

The storm will slowly pull away very early Thursday, with a rather
rapid clearing from northwest to southeast behind the last
precipitation shield. Given the lack of additional cold air
northwest of the low, afternoon temperatures Thursday will likely
warm well into the upper 40s to near 50, especially across far west
central Kansas. This will mark the beginning of another prolonged
tranquil weather period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

There is not a whole lot to discuss in the Long Term, as we enter a
prolonged period of no precipitation with the jet stream becoming
more zonal in time and displaced well to the north of Kansas. We
will see another front pass through Saturday, which will result in
about a 10-degree reduction in afternoon temperatures from Saturday
to Sunday (highs Saturday low-mid 60s, Sunday low-mid 50s). Early to
mid next week, as deep tropospheric heights/thicknesses rise, the
lower troposphere will respond with warmer temperatures, thus we
expect afternoon highs much of early to mid next week in the mid-
upper 60s with touch of lower 70s here and there.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

KDDC...sub vfr vis are expected through 08z or so with
visibilities reduced due to light rain, winds out of the north
gusting over 25kts. From 09z through the rest of the period vfr
conditions are expected. North winds gusting up to 30kts are
expected through 17z with winds quickly decreasing by late
afternoon then becoming light from the southwest early Thursday
evening.

KGCK...sub vfr vis in light rain are expected through 10z with
north winds gusting around 30kts. After 11z northwest winds around
16kts early subside below 12kts by 17z then light and variable
through late afternoon. After 00z winds establish a light
southwest direction.

KHYS...vfr conditions expected through the period. North winds
around 20kts with some higher gusts expected from taf issuance
through about 15z with an expectation of quickly decreasing from
mid morning. For the rest of the period winds generally light and
variable before establishing a southwest direction around 6kts by
03z.

KLBL...sub vfr conditions are expected in light rain and snow from
taf issuance through 10z with north winds gusting around 25kts.
From 11z-16z gusting northwest winds continue with vfr conditions
expected. After 17z winds slowly decrease below 10kts then shift
to the southwest around 7kts after 23z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  48  31  58 / 100  10   0   0
GCK  32  49  30  57 /  80   0   0   0
EHA  31  47  30  57 /  90   0   0   0
LBL  32  47  28  55 / 100  10   0   0
HYS  32  47  32  59 /  30   0   0   0
P28  35  46  30  55 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...99