560
FXUS63 KDDC 262320
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
620 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for at least the next week.

- Seasonably hot afternoons are expected Friday and Saturday.

- A heatwave with above normal temperatures is expected Sunday
  through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Quiet midsummer weather continues at midday, with a continued
clear (albeit milky and smoky) sky across SW KS, courtesy of a
positively tilted ridge axis over the plains. Few if any clouds
through this afternoon in a strongly subsident regime. Lee
troughing deepening to near 1000 mb over eastern Colorado will
support south wind gusts to near 30 mph through sunset,
especially west of Dodge City. Typical late July temperatures in
the low to mid 90s will prevail.

The ridge axis weakens further Saturday, as the core subtropical
high over Arizona temporarily weakens, and as a weak disturbance
tracks north into southeast Kansas. Westerly momentum across the
Rockies will remain sufficient to strengthen lee cyclogenesis
down to 996 mb across eastern Colorado Saturday afternoon,
supporting a continuation of elevated south to southeast winds.
Gusts of 30-35 mph are expected, particularly along the
preferred US 83 corridor (Scott City to Liberal) Saturday
afternoon. Models show little if any thermal changes at 850 mb,
such that Saturday afternoon temperatures will remain near late
July normals, in the lower to mid 90s.

Weak shortwave over eastern Kansas 7 pm Saturday will eject
northeast into the upper Mississippi valley Sunday, clearing the
way for the core subtropical anticyclone to begin expanding
across the plains with rising heights over SW KS. Given a warmer
atmosphere aloft, a more SWly downslope compression with
continued good winds/mixing, and models spreading 850 mb
temperatures > 30C into SW KS, noticeably hotter afternoon
temperatures within a few degrees of 100 will result Sunday.
GEFS ensemble probability of temperatures > 100 are near 100%
across the northwest zones, northwest of DDC, where temperatures
will reach the 102-104 range Sunday.

The core of the expected heatwave will occur Monday through
Thursday, with several consecutive afternoons of 100+ degree
heat expected. Triple digit heat is guaranteed, with GEFS/EPS
ensembles showing 100% probability of temperatures > 100, all
zones, for all days Monday through Thursday. The thinking is
record breaking heat (109-111 range) will be difficult to
achieve, given 1) SW KS will reside only on the northern
periphery of the subtropical ridge much of this time, and 2)
widespread green vegetation and associated evapotranspiration
will act to hold temperatures down a few degrees. A relatively
dry heat (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) is expected,
reducing heat impacts somewhat, but the persistence of the heat
for several days will take a toll on agriculture and livestock
production, as well as those working outdoors.

Rain chances will be near zero for SW KS for the duration of
this synoptic pattern. There may be an isolated thunderstorm
near Hays Sunday evening, perhaps northeast zones again Tuesday
evening, but pops for these are necessarily very low (<15%).
ECMWF/EPS ensembles do show the subtropical ridge retrograding
westward back toward the Four Corners around August 1, and the
resultant NWly flow may allow for a weak cold frontal passage
and a return of scattered convection next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR flying conditions are likely this TAF cycle for all
terminals, with persistent wildfire smoke maintaining the
possibility of brief drops into MVFR vis at any terminal. Wind
forecast will follow its typical diurnal cycle, with breezy south
to south-southeast winds continuing for the next hour or two,
weakening to aob 12 kts through the overnight and early morning
periods, and re-intensifying mid-morning Saturday into the
15-20 kt range with gusts of 25-30 kts possible through 00Z
Sunday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Springer