Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230952
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
452 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Still mainly clear across SW KS as of midnight, but that will not
be lasting much longer. Widespread stratus will develop by sunrise
Thursday, along with areas of drizzle/fog, in response to
warm/moist advection north of a stationary surface boundary to our
south. Indications are the stratus will hold for most locations
most of the day, with any penetration of the warm sector airmass
restricted to areas well southeast of Dodge City. The location of
the frontal boundary will be critical with respect to convective
mode/severity through today. A strong closed low near the Grand
Canyon at sunrise this morning will lift north into Wyoming this
evening, and a strong embedded shortwave will eject just to the
west of SW KS through this evening as this occurs. Dynamic lift
will increase strongly today, and in response numerous showers
and thunderstorms will develop during the daylight hours. Kept pop
grids very high, in the likely/definite category. 00z NAM keeps
any surface-based instability restricted to the far SE zones this
afternoon, with high SBCAPE near Kiowa in Barber county and points
south. With strong shear amid continued SW flow aloft, this is
where severe thunderstorms are most likely this afternoon. More
widespread severe weather is expected across NW Oklahoma into SE
KS. Through the afternoon hours, 00z NAM does allow elevated
MUCAPE to near 2000 J/kg about as far north as the Dodge City
vicinity. As such, stronger thunderstorms will produce marginally
severe hail. Clouds and rainfall will work to hold temperatures
well below normal north of the frontal boundary today, and for the
northern/central zones, followed the cooler 00z NAM/MET guidance.
Northern zones will hold in the 50s, with 70s restricted to the
far SE zones. NE winds will prevail through the day at 15-25 mph.

Will allow the flash flood watch to continue for the SE zones
through tonight. Models continue to line up the heaviest rainfall
across these areas. The latest HRRR iterations are the most
concerning, showing multiple rounds of convection and heavy rain
for Barber county and vicinity, this afternoon through Friday
morning. 00z NAM increases precipitable water to near 2 inches
across the SE counties this evening, and QPF grids show widespread
2 inch rainfall amounts. These amounts will likely prove
conservative where training occurs. Soils are already saturated,
and will need to watch the flooding threat closely for the SE
zones carefully through tonight.

Increased sunshine and the return of south winds will bring much
warmer temperatures on Friday, as the parent upper low lifts north
into Canada. Afternoon temperatures will bounce right back to the
upper 70s, with lower 80s across the SW zones. The trailing
frontal boundary will linger near the SE zones, where pops were
retained, especially for the afternoon hours. Models show the
strongest instability south and east of Barber county Friday
afternoon, but will need to continue to monitor flooding in these
SE zones.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Traditional Memorial Day weekend weather is expected Saturday and
Sunday, in that we are expecting afternoon/evening thunderstorm
potential both days. SW flow aloft is maintained both days,
between persistent troughing over the Great Basin and the
sprawling subtropical high over the SE U.S. As such, the lee
trough/dryline will remain established, gulf moisture will remain
available, and wind shear will remain strong. Per SPC Day 3
outlook for Saturday, scattered supercells are expected in the
warm sector. Pop grids are highest Saturday evening, when large
hail/damaging winds are possible.

Severe thunderstorms appear likely again Sunday afternoon and
evening, with the synoptic pattern changing little and instability
easily reestablishing by afternoon. With enhanced synoptic
support, 00z ECMWF would suggest more robust convective
development Sunday, with a distinct tornado threat across SW KS.
Memorial Day weekend is the statistical peak of the SW KS tornado
season, and this will have to be watched carefully.

Both Saturday and Sunday, heavy rain potential will continue to
exacerbate the contined flash flood threat in south central
Kansas.

00z ECMWF places a strong 552 dm closed low near Las Vegas
Memorial Day morning, and gradually ejects it NE to SE Wyoming
through late Tuesday. Temperatures will warm well into the 80s
with strong SW winds Memorial Day, with a break in convective
potential expected. As the upper low ejects into the central
plains on Tuesday, the accompanying cold front will bring a
NWly wind shift and noticeably cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 452 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Poor flying conditions will prevail through the balance of this
TAF cycle, with the combination of stratus, drizzle, showers and
thunderstorms all reducing ceilings and visibility. Stratus has
already spread across SW KS, and cigs will continue to lower to
IFR through the morning hours. Showers have begun developing as of
10z, and shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase at all
airports today. Included convective TEMPO groups at all airports.
NE winds of 15-25 kts this morning will diminish somewhat and
trend SE after 00z Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  77  61 / 100  80  20  30
GCK  57  47  79  57 /  80  60  10  20
EHA  61  47  79  57 /  60  20  10  10
LBL  62  52  77  59 /  90  50  20  30
HYS  63  55  78  61 /  80  80  20  30
P28  73  65  78  64 / 100  90  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ066-079>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner


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