053
FXUS63 KDDC 250522
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1222 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No changes to current heat advisory areas for the rest of
  Today and Tuesday.

- Widely scattered 10-25% areal coverage thunderstorms possible
  through the Highway K-96 corridor of west central Kansas
  between about 9 pm and 3 am.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Temperatures have been a little slow to reach the high 90s and
100 degree mark in the eastern counties, however with still a
little time in the day for temps to rise, and the mid 60s dew
points in the area, the heat advised counties seem well
justified. A surface boundary over northwest Kansas can be the
focal area for development of thunderstorms, fighting a very
strong mid level capping 13-14C layer. Any storms able to break
a capping layer can produce strong damaging winds given the
steep mid and low level lapse rates in the late evening hours to
past midnight. Gusty south winds are likely to continue well
through the evening, maintaining hot temperatures in the 90s
through sunset. Widely scattered storms will be relegated to
areas north of highway 400, with a lower chance (10-20%) of
lingering farther south and east in the overnight hours.

More widespread heat risk is expected on Tuesday and the heat
advisory remains in place from Wakeeney to Liberal and all
points east. Forecast Apparent Temperatures are the warmest in
the red hills region (Coldwater - Barber County - Pratt) where
the apparent temps climb to around 105-109 degrees on the NBM.
Additionally, Tuesday offers better dynamics with the winds
aloft increasing as a northwesterly mid level jet segment
spreads into central Kansas in the early through late evening.
This will allow a greater areal coverage of risk for damaging
wind and large hail.

For Wednesday evening and Thursday evening, both look conducive
for diurnal MCS activity on the high plains. Ensembles also
show signal for QPF Thursday through Friday, with little
separation in the 6 hour timing bins. But, the deterministic
models GEM/GFS/EC still advertise an arc of 60 deg or higher
surface dew points extending from western OK into NW Kansas
Wednesday night, with an MCS signal in the QPF fields through
18z Thursday, so early thunderstorms could be ongoing Wednesday
morning well into the day. With the jet dynamics still in place,
MCS activity looks possible again Thursday night with perhaps
not as much CAPE/instability based on the surface dew points.

In the longer term, the best timing for active weather with
appreciable precipitation returns about late Saturday night
through Sunday based on 24 hour QPF multiple run trends of the
GFS and ECMWF ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A small mesoscale convective system (MCS) was moving across the
HYS terminal at the onset of this new TAF period, but we will
initialize HYS with vicinity showers as the thunderstorms will
be moving south of the terminal at the beginning of the period.
Elsewhere, the probability of thunderstorm impact at any of the
other three terminals DDC, GCK, LBL is too low to include in
overnight TAF. That said, latest satellite and radar trends were
showing an uptick in convection across far west central KS,
which if holds together and forms into another small MCS,
amendments at GCK and/or DDC will be needed overnight. Another
round of scattered thunderstorms will be possible late
day/evening Tuesday, but signals from latest models are all over
the place with respect to timing/location of storms, so until
there is a greater convective signal to latch on to with respect
to individual terminal impact, we will not insert thunderstorms
later in the day on this synoptic TAF cycle.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-077>081-086>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid