![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
584 FXUS63 KDDC 251047 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 547 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon for forecast heat index values of 103 to 107 degrees. An isolated location or two, particularly across Red Hills region, may approach 110F heat index for a brief time. - Another round of scattered thunderstorms tonight, but the main activity will likely be southeast of much of our forecast area. - A cold front late tonight will mark the beginning of an active stretch of nightly thunderstorms rolling east across western Kansas, mainly at night. Signals continue to be quite strong for widespread 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall between Wednesday Night and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The overnight water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showed a continued split jet pattern in the upper troposphere with the main branch at its typical summer latitude near the Canada border. The secondary, weaker, yet still important jet farther south extended from northern Nevada east across the Colorado Rockies. RAP analysis had an enhanced jetlet centered across central Colorado with left exit region across west central Kansas. This is likely the main forcing mechanism for ascent to promote the continued generation of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the night between Highway 50 and I-70. The 00Z HREF had a fairly good handle on this overnight activity as it maintained 10km neighborhood probability of 30-40% for 25+ dBZ composite reflectivity. The 00Z HREF does show these probabilities lowering quite a bit toward sunrise, and the POP grids will reflect this forecast weakening of overnight convection. As we head in to the afternoon Tuesday, all the models show this southern branch of the jet shifting northward into Wyoming, yet keeping west central and northwest Kansas in a favorable exit region for upward vertical motion to support another round of thunderstorms. The increasing low level thicknesses due to rising overall heights across the Southern Rockies will support another hot afternoon. In fact, 850mb temperatures will be slightly warmer, thus a larger area will likely see highs in the 101 to 104F range. Models are also showing a relative minimum signal in afternoon highs east/northeast of Dodge City, and the HREF does show this signal, but even if temperatures do not reach 100 degrees in portions of the eastern CWA, dewpoints are likely to hold in the 64 to 67F range to keep resulting heat indices in the 104 to 107F range. No changes are going to be made to the counties that are currently in the Heat Advisory for this afternoon. Using HREF 10km neighborhood probabilities as a proxy for where/when best thunderstorm activity will be later this afternoon, signals are strongest across northern/northwestern Oklahoma where probabilities of 25+ dBZ composite reflectivity exceed 35% across much of the northern half of Oklahoma. A secondary signal is shown later in the afternoon/early evening across our northern/northwestern counties in vicinity of a weak surface vorticity center, but the convective signal is not nearly as strong as farther southeast, so the uncertainty is greater. Going forward, all the models still show a fairly strong cold front by summer standards later on tonight into Wednesday. This will put a temporary break on excessive heat indices (except for one more day of very hot heat indices possible across the Red Hills). This front will actually mark the beginning of a rather prolonged wet pattern for western/central Kansas (and much of the Central Plains for that matter). Post frontal moist upslope will develop by Wednesday Night, focusing thunderstorm development across eastern Colorado. The first of several nights of formidable mesoscale convective systems (MCS) will likely move out across western Kansas Wednesday Night. An ensemble approach is still the best forecast method for best run-to- run continuity. The 00Z run of the 100-member Grand Ensemble continues to show around 0.8" 50th percentile for Dodge City (and much of the rest of our southwest Kansas region, for that matter). 90th percentile QPF through the end of the month are nearly 2 inches. Given multiple chances for much of the area to see heavy rainfall over a roughly 4-night period, it is very reasonable to think that upper end potential (1-in-10 chance) of 2-3" of rainfall is certainly not out of the question. As it stands of this forecast, there is really not one night out of the 4 (Wednesday Night through Saturday Night) that is favored over any other at this point, and there is going to be a feedback from previous night MCS that will have ramifications on the next day`s forecast that simply cannot be predicted on a sub-synoptic scale. Regardless, the synoptic pattern characterized by a summer ridge that is flattened out and south of our area will continue to favor MCS activity in vicinity of the Southwest Kansas region through the end of the month. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 544 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Early morning showers and thunderstorms at the onset of this TAF period will continue to pull away from HYS. Strong south wake low winds behind the small thunderstorm system will gradually decrease at HYS through the morning. A leeside trough and weak surface low moving east out across southwest and west central Kansas today will lead to a relaxing of the pressure gradient and winds will become light and variable through much of the afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in vicinity of this trough axis/weak surface low, however coverage of thunderstorm activity is expected to be rather sparse, so this synoptic TAF issuance will not include thunderstorms (neither TSRA nor VCTS). && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-077>081-086>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Umscheid