Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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004 FXUS63 KDDC 230841 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 341 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry weather can be expected over the next week to ten days, with only small chances for light rain over central Kansas on Tuesday, and Friday into early Saturday. - Cool nights are forecast through Monday night, but high temperatures will warm well into the 70s over the next few days as sunshine returns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Regional satellite shows all of the water vapor spreading across southeast Kansas and southern OK, while a narrow subsidence zone was evident over southwest NE into southeast Colorado with the leading edge of the drying zone/cold advection and deeper mid to upper level differential vorticity advection. Plenty of sun will be observed Today as high pressure promotes light winds area-wide. Plenty of model consensus point to high only reaching the low 70s in most locations. The 3 main global spectral models ec/gfs/ec place the mid level low over northern Missouri-southern Iowa by 100 Wednesday. That on average places the nose of the well across central Kansas. The window between 18z and 00z is the only reasonable opportunity for convective showers and models at this time seem to favor areas east and south of the DDC forecast area. This still supports the NBMs slight chances (20% or less) for showers along and east of the 183 corridor. Cloud cover on Tuesday may be the difference between a range of outcomes for highs of mid to upper 70s, as in the 75th percentile of NBM solutions, the lower reasonable expectations of 70-74 degrees as the 25th percentile shows. Temperatures later in the week could moderate slightly to warmer highs, however the potential appears limited. A parked upper low over the Mid Mississippi valley region and generally cool continental airmass over the upper Missouri valley and cornbelt regions will help supply easterly surface wind trajectories into the western High Plains through the end of the week. Models lend themselves to more uncertainty as well by the weekend when each global deterministic model presents a different version of the northern stream branch disassociating with and leaving a cutoff low to meander back westward again. The end result ins generally high pressure aloft dominating the region from New Mexico and across the western half of Kansas into Nebraska. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Increasingly clearing sky overnight into Monday with light variable winds overnight, turning more out of the south area- wide during the daytime. VFR category is of high confidence. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Russell