Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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488 FXUS63 KDDC 112357 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 657 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwest Kansas can expect a warming trend mid to late week. There is +80% chance that highs will range from around 100 to near 103 Thursday afternoon. - There will be chance for strong to severe thunderstorms (20-40%) across southwest Kansas Thursday night and late Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The ensembles and deterministic models are in good agreement and continue to show run to run agreement with the upcoming warming trend over the next few days. The main question remains: how warm will it get? Earlier today, both the NAEFS and ECMWF had mean 850MB temperatures ranging between 28 and 32C at 18z Thursday and 00z Friday. The climatological percentiles from both ensembles for 850MB mean temperatures ranged from 90-97.5%. Additionally, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index at 00z Friday ranges from 0.6 to 0.8 which continue to prove a high confidence forecast (+80%) for highs of 100 to 103F on Thursday afternoon. Combining these temperatures with the forecast afternoon dewpoints, a few locations across south central Kansas could experience a few hours with heat indices approaching 105F. Although this is just below the heat advisory criteria, the new experimental NWS HeatRisk outlines this area well, placing locations near and east of Highway 281 in the major heat risk category. This is just below heat advisory criteria but the new experimental NWS HeatRisk does outline this area well and places locations near and east of 281 in the major heat risk. Heat of this type represents a major Risk to all individuals who are 1) exposed to the sun and active or 2) are in a heat-sensitive group. This is also dangerous to anyone without proper hydration or adequate cooling. As for temperatures leading up to this anticipated triple digit heat on Thursday, I am currently trending towards the warmer 75th percentile for highs tomorrow. This is based on the deeper mixing potential and the decent agreement among the ensembles regarding the warming trend of 850-700MB temperatures by late day. These warm temperatures will be occurring ahead of a deepening trough of low pressure at the surface that will extend from eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas as a weak wave associated with the right entrance region of the upper jet moves out of the Rockies into the western High Plains. This will result in highs across southwest Kansas being firmly in the mid 90s. There is some good news regarding the deep mixing potential late Wednesday...this mixing will result in lower afternoon dewpoints, so heat index readings on Wednesday should stay below 100F. Precipitation chances along this boundary late Wednesday/Wednesday night appear small, but I cannot completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two if we can overcome the CIN from the warm mid-level temperatures. Weak westerly flow should also keep any storm that does develop west of Highway 83. Severe weather is not anticipated. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 For Thursday night through the start of the weekend, ensemble clusters show good agreement with an upper ridge over the Rockies late Thursday moving east across the central Plains and weakening as a more significant upper-level trough approaches from the west. On Thursday night, a surface boundary/cold front will move towards southwest Kansas, enhancing low-level forcing as +65 degree dew points spread into the area ahead of the boundary. Ensemble clusters differ on how quickly this moisture will move north, but in general, the chance for +65F dew points across southwest Kansas Thursday night is 50%-80%. This moisture, combined with improving low level forcing and mid level instability will result in increasing chances for thunderstorms, especially near the cold front across northern Kansas. Near this cold front there will be a 40-60% chance for the 0-6 km shear to be >30 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support the potential for supercells with large hail and possibly strong gusty winds near this boundary that is forecast to remain nearly stationary near the I-70 corridor. The chance for thunderstorms will then be on the increase Friday. The mean 500mb heights from the GEFS, ENS, and GEPS are all in good agreement with this upper trough exiting the Rockies and crossing western Kansas on Saturday. This will result in improving chances for thunderstorms ahead of this next upper level system. The probability of receiving 0.1" of precipitation from these storms ranges from 40-70% across southeast Kansas late Saturday into Saturday night. Additionally, a few severe thunderstorms may once again be possible, especially based on the latest forecast mid-level instability and shear. Over the weekend period the thunderstorm chances will decrease, but this break will not last long. All the ensembles are in good agreement that our next upper level trough will exit the eastern Pacific and cross the southwestern United States early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 654 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Aviation weather will be good through this TAF period with typical summer weather forecast. Prevailing wind direction will be from the south through the period. Tonight, wind speeds will be 7 to 11 knots, increasing mid-morning Wednesday to 12 to 17 knots sustained with higher gusts as mixing sets in a couple hours after sunrise. No thunderstorms are expected at any of the terminals through this TAF period and VFR will prevail throughout. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Umscheid