Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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940 FXUS63 KDDC 250519 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1219 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures can be expected across western Kansas through the upcoming weekend period. Highs each day will range from the upper 70s to near 85 degrees, with warmest temperatures in the west. - Dry conditions can be expected over the next 7 days. We are still monitoring the slight chance of light rain east of a Larned to Coldwater line but currently the chance for this is currently <10%. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 At 12z Tuesday morning, a -16C to -18C 500mb trough extended from western Minnesota to the Central Plains. At the surface, a cold front stretched from southeast Nebraska across northern Kansas and into west central Colorado. Since then, the cold front has moved across southwest Kansas, and as of 18z, it extended from south central Kansas into the Texas Panhandle, with gusty north winds developing across southwest Kansas. The upper level trough at 18z was located over central Kansas. This upper level trough will continue to move southeast tonight and deepen across the mid Mississippi Valley through the last half of the work week as an upper level ridge builds into the Central Rockies. This weather pattern will limit the magnitude of the warming potential across western Kansas from the downslope flow that may have developed late week due to a persistent cool easterly flow across Kansas, weak as it may be. Ensembles today are still struggling with just how warm it will be each day, based on the 25th to 75th percentile spread in surface and 850mb temperatures. However, even accounting for this uncertainty, highs each day appear to be as warm or a degree or two warmer than the previous day through the end of the work week. Highs on Friday are expected to be from around 80 to near 85. Over the weekend and into early next week, the ensemble clusters remain consistent with previous runs in showing a general trend of an upper low over the mid Mississippi Valley slowly moving northeast toward the Ohio Valley and weakening. Exact details on its location and track remains unclear, which is expected, given how models often struggle with a cutoff upper low in the extended periods. Early in the weekend, the ensemble clusters continue to show moisture spreading northwest of this upper low into central Kansas. However, the latest ensemble clusters have backed off on how far west this moisture and lift will spread. As a result, the chance for rain has decreased late Friday into Saturday. Still, a slight chance of rain east of a Larned to Coldwater line cannot be completely ruled out, as 20-30% of the ensemble clusters still forecast a 20-30% chance of 0.01" or more over a 24-hour period ending at 1 PM Saturday. In the same timeframe and area, the chance of receiving more than 0.1" of rain is less than 15%. This will be the only rain chance over the next seven days. Looking ahead to next week, we will be monitoring the next surface cold front crossing the northern Plains early in the week as a more significant upper level trough moves across the Central United States. Ensemble clusters are almost evenly split (50/50) between two solutions. One suggests a stronger upper level trough crossing the northern Plains, which would push the cold front across southwest Kansas Tuesday or Wednesday. If this solution verifies, temperatures around day seven would be about 10F cooler than the current forecast. If the second solution verifies, highs will be near or slightly above forecast guidance. Despite these differing solutions in the ensemble clusters for late in the forecast period, all ensembles continue to indicate a dry forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR categorical conditions through this TAF as the the are is dominate by dry high pressure. Resulting light and variable winds area also going to prevail over the next 24 hours. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Russell