032
FXUS63 KDDC 220700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot today

- Hot Sunday

- Continued hot through Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The general gist of the forecast is hot. A prefrontal trof axis will
move across the FA during the morning hours. A weak front will follow
as the afternoon wears on. This front is not really a cold/cool front
as there really isnt any significant temperatures advection associated
with it in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The main impact
of these sfc features moving through will be wind shifts. SW winds
in the morning will eventually shift NW to N by afternoon and then
NE by evening. The strongest winds will be associated with the trof.
Speaking of, some dry air advection is likely with decreasing dewpoints
during the day for much of the FA. This will help to mitigate some
of the heat issues today. The highest dewpoints (mid 60s) and hottest
highs (around 100F) looks like to be confined mainly to Barber county.
Heat indices of 100 to 104F looks likely for the small area of concern.
Otherwise, highs in the mid to upper 90s looks likely for the rest
of the FA. In fact, EPS has 90% to 100% probabilities of highs >
90F today. Winds will be weaker overall Sunday morning, so this would
support near normal lows with values in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Highs Sunday look hot once again with mid to upper 90s likely for
the FA. Low 100s cannot be ruled out across the lower terrain of
Barber county. Will have to watch heat indices Sunday as they could
flirt again with headline criteria, this would mainly be for Barber
county and perhaps Comanche county. Something to watch. Summer continues
as we head into the next business week. A synoptic ridge will prevail
Monday through Wednesday with 500 hPa heights in the 594 dm to 596
dm range. This supports continued hot highs with values in the lower
100s. The UL ridge begins to flatten Thursday and Friday as another
synoptic system starts to move across the Northern Rockies. This
may take highs down a few degrees, but not by much. It is Summer
in Kansas, so hot highs are on par with climo. The NBM continues
to output pops in the 15% to 40% probability range and will leave
as is for now due to typical summertime convective uncertainty, mainly
in placement.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR expected through TAF pd. LLWS via LLJ possible through the overnight.
A prefrontal trof will work across the terminals during the morning
with the winds becoming southwesterly. A weak front - rather a wind
shift - will work in after with NW to eventually NE winds by evening.
The strongest winds will be mainly through the morning hours - 10-20
kt with gusts around 25 kt.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden