Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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054 FXUS63 KDDC 150542 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening as storms roll east-northeast out of southeast CO. Primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts. - Another round of storms is possible Saturday afternoon and evening, however weak mid/upper level flow should limit severity. - Strong southerly winds are likely early next week, especially Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Visible satellite observations show widespread cloud debris is lingering over southwest KS from overnight convection, which is keeping temperatures in most locations much cooler than expected in the upper 70s/low 80s. That said, continued erosion of this cloud cover over the next couple hours should still allow afternoon highs to reach into the upper 80s/low 90s. Otherwise, latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis show a compact shortwave impulse over the Four Corners region that is moving northeast towards the central Rockies. As forcing for ascent increases ahead of this wave, thunderstorm development is anticipated across south-central and southeast CO within an environment characterized by modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear. With time, upscale growth into a loosely organized convective system is likely, which will move east- northeast into western KS by 22-00Z. DCAPE values ahead of this complex are progged to be in the 1200-1400 J/Kg range, which will once again support damaging wind gusts as the primary severe hazard. There is some uncertainty regarding how far east thunderstorms can reach, as a few HREF members suggest activity will decay before US-283. This seems reasonable given the aforementioned lingering cloud cover, which will inhibit surface parcels. However, deep-layer shear increases slightly with northward extent, which may support MCS maintenance across roughly the northern half of our CWA. Either way, convection will be largely clear of our area by 08Z, and the remainder of the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the low 60s west to low 70s east. Daytime Saturday, short range ensembles agree the compact upper level impulse will eject onto the central plains. As forcing for ascent associated with this wave interacts with any remnant outflow boundaries, another round of scattered thunderstorms appears likely roughly along and near an axis from Liberal/Meade to Wakeeney/Hays. Weak deep layer shear should limit storm severity, but a few severe wind gusts or quarter sized hail stones cannot be ruled out. Sunday into early next work week, medium range ensembles continue to suggest broad, longwave upper level troughing will become established over the western CONUS. With modest southwesterly flow across the central Rockies, fairly deep leeside surface troughing will develop over eastern CO that will persists well into the week. Mass response around this feature will result in strong southerly winds, especially on Monday and Tuesday, sustained in the 25-35 mph range with gusts up to 50 mph. Additionally, precipitation chances will remain somewhat elevated as both ECMWF EPS and GEFS probability of QPF > 0.01" is at least in the 30-60% range each day through Wednesday, and as high as the 70-80% range Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have moved on from our southwest Kansas region, including the four terminals DDC, GCK, LBL, and HYS. For the rest of tonight, winds will be fairly light and generally out of the south at 7 to 10 knots for the most part. Saturday will be windy out of the south-southwest with sustained winds in the afternoon reaching 20 to 25 knots sustained. Gusts at times will approach or reach 35 knots. There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms, isolated in nature, and given the forecast coverage of storms late in the day tomorrow, thunderstorms will not be included in this TAF issuance. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...Umscheid