546
FXUS63 KDDC 290444
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1144 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
  northern third of the forecast area after 10 pm.

- Heat indices at or above 105 degrees continuing this
  afternoon.

- Additional storm chances continue throughout the remainder of the
  forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Drought improvement has been seen on the latest U.S Drought
Monitor, where Moderate drought has been removed across large
portions of Morton, Seward, Meade, Gray and Ford counties.
Moderate to pockets of severe drought remain across parts of
Stanton, Haskell, Grant, Hodgeman, Pawnee and Rush counties...as
well as the red hills region. As for the remaining drought
areas, the good news is that overnight Thursday rains on the
order of 1-2 inches along the Kansas Oklahoma line, have not yet
influenced the drought monitor. The bulk of these heavier rains
fell across southern Pratt, and across all of Barber county.

Additional rain in the coming days will continue to work on the
remain dry and drought conditions. Starting with convective
chances this evening  both southeast and much later north.
Isolated late afternoon showers or storms may pop up on a weak
cold front/surface convergence zone over the southeast counties.
A more significant area of storms however are advertised by all
of the CAMS to slide off the higher terrain of eastern Colorado
and southwest Nebraska, with the potential to bring damaging
thunderstorm wind gusts and hail to the I-70 corridor in the
late evening and midnight timeframe. With these storms, the
chances taper off southward across the highway 400 corridor.
With the with to a northerly wind and some cold advection,
temperatures on Saturday will to be as hot, with a welcome
respite from the heat advisory criterion.

 A marked increase in precipitation chances begin early
Saturday evening around Elkhart, expanding across the entire
area at around 60% chances through the overnight. Areal QPF from
the WPC is forecasting a broad half to three quarters of an inc
h of rain area-wide while the northeast sections have upwards
of 2 inches of QPF (forecast rainfall).

Monday is probably warmer, back in to the upper 90s or low 100s
with minimal precipitation chances (10-20%) across the north.
Daily thunderstorm chances will persist throughout this 7 day
outlook as the 24h hour ensemble have low qpf in about every
period though the weekend  making a highly uncertain, day to
day mesoscale forecast challenge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail with increasing mid level
cloudiness. There may be an isolated thunderstorm around the HYS
terminal shortly after 06Z and have placed VCTS to account for
this. Winds will generally be from the northeast throughout the
day, gusting to over 20 knots this afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42