111
FXUS63 KDDC 161041
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
541 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- First storm system to bring numerous showers and thunderstorms
  late Tuesday evening/night. Severe weather potential remains
  very low given the timing after sunset.

- Thursday and Friday likely well-above normal temperatures with
  75% probability of exceeding 95 degrees for highs Thursday
  afternoon across the Red Hills region.

- Friday Night through Saturday Night, storm number two will
  provide another round of showers and thunderstorms with
  greater potential for more precipitation over a larger area
  than Tuesday Night`s system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

During the overnight (as of 0800Z), radar showed scattered showers
and an isolated lightning flash or two north of a Dodge City to
Larned line up toward I-70. This activity appeared to line up with a
subtle convergence zone centered around 700mb per RAP objective
analysis fields. On the larger scale, an impressive upper low was
centered across northern California with a jet streak in the mid-
upper troposphere digging down the west side of the low, suggesting
further maturing of this mid level cyclone.

The upper low will be slow to move east today, and our southwestern
Kansas region will not feel the effects of this system today or
tonight. Winds will remain out of the south to southeast 15 to 20
mph as the leeside trough remains in place, slowly deepening across
the central and northern High Plains through the day and tonight. As
far as temperatures go, we will continue the trend of going above
straight NBM for afternoon temperatures, incorporating 75th to 90th
percentile NBM temperatures, as this has worked well in this pattern
given antecedent dry conditions. Some of the CAMs suggest an
isolated to widely scattered storm or two developing across the
eastern TX-OK panhandle and adjacent southwest KS this afternoon,
but feel this is overdone given the absence of appreciable boundary
layer convergence, thus will keep POPs below 15 percent today and
tonight. There is a greater signal of more organized showers and
thunderstorms clipping our northwest counties of far west central KS
later this evening, much like last evening, and we will keep POPs
around 15-20 percent for this activity.

Our best chance for numerous showers and thunderstorms will be late
Tuesday evening and through the night Tuesday Night as the storm out
west finally moves northeast out of the Rockies and across the
Northern Plains. Latest NBM POPs are still around 60 percent for
much of the forecast area Tuesday Night, and it still appears much,
if not all of the precipitation will be associated with sub-severe
convection given timing well after sunset and fairly marginal
moisture and instability. Latest SPC Day 3 convective outlook keeps
a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) across eastern Colorado given the mentioned
reasoning. Nevertheless, much of our southwest and west central
Kansas should still see modest rainfall given the magnitude of the
large scale forcing for ascent as main mid-upper jet streak exit
region overspreads western Kansas late in the evening/overnight.
Latest NBM suggests region of highest precipitation potential across
our northwestern counties with 75th percentile 24-h QPF of one-half
inch or greater generally west and northwest of a Ulysses to Garden
City to Ness City line...which makes sense given the slightly better
forcing for ascent and subsequent organized convection closer to the
upper level jet exit region.

The late Tuesday Night storm system will push through quickly with
Wednesday and Thursday quiet, from a precipitation standpoint, in
between storm systems. Global models and ensemble systems are still
in pretty good agreement of the next big storm system Friday-
Saturday brining our next shot of decent rainfall potential. This
will also mark the beginning of the end of our 90-degree September
heat. Ahead of wave #2 on Thursday and Friday, though, a rather
impressive southwest downslope plume will overspread western Kansas
with widespread 90s like and even upper 90s to, yes, even 100-degree
potential in the Red Hills region. Latest NBM Probability of 95+ for
highs on Thursday are around 75% in the Red Hills region and 40-50%
on Friday. The Friday-Saturday storm system will have better low
level moisture infusion as well as stronger low level frontogenetic
forcing for ascent along with the jet streak approaching. This will
yield more widespread potential for greater than one-half inch of
rainfall. Once the second wave passes through early in the weekend,
much cooler air will push south in its wake. Latest ECMWF ensemble
means show highs around the climatological normal of lower 80s
Sunday through all of the following week, although there is large
spread in the ensemble members with 25-75th percentile range among
members 12-17 degrees (F).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

South to southeast winds will continue through this TAF period
today and tonight. There is a very low chance for an isolated
shower or thunderstorm later this afternoon/evening, however
probability of impact at individual terminals is too low to
include in this synoptic TAF issuance.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid