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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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787 FXUS63 KDDC 251946 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 246 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon for forecast heat index values of 103 to 107 degrees. An isolated location or two, particularly across Red Hills region, may approach 110F heat index for a brief time. - Another round of scattered thunderstorms tonight, but the main activity will likely be southeast of much of our forecast area. - A cold front late tonight will mark the beginning of an active stretch of nightly thunderstorms rolling east across western Kansas, mainly at night. Signals continue to be quite strong for widespread 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall between Wednesday Night and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Temperature and dew points early this afternoon have combined for heat indices in the mid and upper 90s and 101 and 103F at LaCrosse and Medicine Lodge respectively, with still plenty of heating to go this afternoon, supporting the heat advisory that remains in effect everywhere east of a Wakeeney to Liberal Line. Of the various members of the HREF (short term ensemble) only a lone, typically over-convecting CAM is continuing to produce thunderstorms along the incoming surface boundary latest his afternoon and evening (the Hi-Res ARW). The marginal risk had been trimmed back to mainly the southeast counties. Therefore any severe risk is really minimal and very low confidence this afternoon but not zero. A progressive upper pattern will help drive high plains MCS activity over the next couple of nights, starting with Wednesday night and beyond. The dome of hot air is going nowhere, but the atmosphere across central and southwest Kansas will be regionally modified by a cold front late tonight (Tuesday), bringing a slight respite to the heat risk levels as well Wednesday and Thursday, with a return on Friday but with uncertainty. The latest NBM bumps precipitation probabilities to 50% and higher north of K-96 Wednesday night and Thursday. Wednesday will bring post frontal easterly surface winds while returning to a more breezy/marginally windy day Thursday with southerly gusty winds returning ahead of the redeveloping lee troughing. Friday may bring heat risk back, mainly to the southeast counties. The Probability of apparent temperatures exceeding 104 degrees (105 is the threshold for heat advisories) in only around 20-40% based on the grand ensembles - and focused from around Clark State Lake to Pratt and areas south of there. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Decaying thunderstorms over the south central Kansas counties late this morning will not impact any local terminals. Through mid afternoon expect clear conditions and VFR at all sites. By about 23z the potential increases significantly for isolated thunderstorms development (under 10% areal coverage) associated with a surface cold front that should be near GCK oriented north east to southwest. Models have favored northern areas of the forecast area along this boundary for isolated convection, (between 23z and 3z), meaning very low confidence exists in even having a storm in the vicinity of any given terminal. Any storm that does develop will be in a deeply mixed layer with good potential for locally severe thunderstorm wind downbursts. The front pushing though later in the evening will turn surface winds out of the north. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-045- 046-064>066-077>081-086>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Russell