123
FXUS63 KDDC 201600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather will prevail across Southwest Kansas over the next
  week.

- A strong warming trend is expected through the weekend and
  early next week, with the first heat wave of the summer
  focused around Tuesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Some light showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will
continue early this morning. Otherwise, expect dry weather for
much of the FA today. The general gist is that 500 hPa ridge of
high pressure will prevail over the region region today and
continuing through Friday. Highs today will be close to near
normal with values in the mid to upper 80s, perhaps being held
slightly down from the recent heavy rainfall. At the surface,
the lee trough across eastern Colorado will diurnally deepen.
The net result is SE/S to winds blowing in the 18 to 28 mph
range with gusts over 30 mph likely. The winds will diurnally
weaken as we get close to dusk and be light SE/S through the
overnight hours. Minimums will be close to normal with values in
the 60s. The weather pattern really doesnt change Friday with
high pressure still in control across the greater region. Pretty
much a carbon copy of highs Friday with values in the mid to
upper 80s with a few 90s along the Oklahoma border. Lows heading
into Saturday morning will be very mild with values around 70F.
The 500 hPa ridge starts to move over the region Saturday. This
supports hotter highs with values in the 90s. The EPS has 90%
to 100% probabilities of highs > 90F Saturday. The hot weather
looks to continue Sunday as we close out the weekend. Storm
chances look unlikely with only slight pops during this period.
The mid level ridge begins to amplify Monday through Thursday.
This supports the forecast of hot highs with values in the upper
90s to lower 100s. Storm chances look doubtful overall with
only a smattering during the long term period with probabilities
of 15% to 30%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with variable amounts
of midlevel cloud. South winds will gust 25-30 kts through
00z Fri, with light south winds overnight. After 15z Fri,
strong SW winds are expected at all airports, gusting 30-35 kts,
with the strongest winds expected at GCK.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner