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000
FXUS63 KDDC 281009
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
509 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Warming trend can be expected early in the week with highs
  in the 90s possible Tuesday and Wednesday near the Oklahoma
  border and south central Kansas. There is a 50-60% chance of
  highs in these locations to be 95F or greater.

- Fire risk will be on the increase Tuesday and Wednesday near
  the Oklahoma border, especially west of Liberal.

- Rain chances improving late week followed by some cooler
  temperatures returning on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Short term models and ensembles were in good agreement this
morning with an upper low/trough crossing western Kansas today.
Under this upper level system steep mid level lapse rates will
be present given the -20 to -22C 500mb temperatures and this
would support keeping the chance for morning thunderstorms. Area
most favorable for this lingering early morning convection will
be near and north of the I-70 corridor.

North winds and widespread boundary layer moisture (low clouds)
behind a cold front this morning that will be located across
northwest Oklahoma and south central Kansas throughout the day
will gradually erode during the afternoon. Based on the latest
short term model soundings it appears that the ceilings may
increase but skies will stay cloudy for much of western Kansas
through mid day. Given this updated cloud cover and cool north
winds will lower highs today, especially north of Dodge City
where confidence is highest (+60%) for the sky to remain cloudy
until evening. North of the Garden City to Larned line the NBM
has only a 20-50% chance for highs to be 65 or greater. For
locations south of highway 50 who may see the sun return sooner
this afternoon than further north do not be surprised to see
temperatures up to 5F warmer than the current forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

What cool down that does occur on Sunday will be brief given
that a westerly downslope flow will quickly develop early next
week. The mean ensemble 850mb temperatures were showing the
response to this downslope flow by warming from the 8C to 12C at
00z Monday to 15 to near 20C by 00z Tuesday.

Warm and dry conditions can be expected across western Kansas
on Tuesday ahead of a weak cold front which will attempt to move
into southwest Kansas by late day as an upper level trough,
located over the Pacific northwest Sunday night, crosses the
northern Rockies and moves out into the Northern Plains. With
not much of a push of colder air behind this system and west to
southwest flow across the Rockies on Tuesday, I am a little
concerned that this cold front may not move as far south as what
is currently forecast. Even if it does it there will not be
much of a cool down. Based on this and the ongoing dry
conditions will not only stay close to the current guidance but
would not be surprised if temperatures end up being closer to
the warmer 75th percentile for highs south of this cold front
(near the Oklahoma border and South Central Kansas). This could
result in highs at least in the mid 90s in these locations.
There is a 50-60% chance of highs in these locations to be 95F
or greater which is very similar to the chances of this
occurring this time yesterday.

Along with these warm conditions on Tuesday and even Wednesday
there will be an increased fire weather risk south of the cold
front that will be located somewhere in southwest Kansas.
Afternoon humidity values are already forecast to be falling
back into the 10 to 15% range near and south of the cold front
but the winds are not expected to be strong enough for critical
fire weather conditions given the location of the boundary. At
this time only areas of near critical fire conditions are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon but if the boundary
does not move as far south this may change. Those with fire
weather concerns should stay weather aware for where the Tuesday
cold front stalls out.

As for the last half of the work week our attention will be
focused on our next upper level trough that will be exiting the
Pacific northwest. Currently it appears from the ensembles that
there are some differing solutions on strength and timing of
this next upper level system as it approaches the Central
Rockies late week. Confidence currently is not high (<40%) on
which solutions may end up being more correct but the one item
of interest that all models agree upon is when this next system
does move out into the plains it will bring with it our next
best chance for widespread precipitation. The main question is
when? The current forecast has multiple days with a chance of
precipitation from Tuesday night through Saturday and this may
be partly due to the uncertainty of timing of this next system.
Another reason is that there may be several subtle upper waves
embedded in the flow crossing the plains prior to the main upper
trough which ensembles cannot resolved. Given that models are
unable to resolve these subtle features that far out and that
there is over a 60% chance for +55F dewpoints will be returning
south central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas by Tuesday
night ahead of a dryline...we cannot completely rule out the
slight chance for storms mid week east of Dodge City given a
40-70% chance for CAPE values to be >500 and shear >30knots.
Still given this it still appears that the better opportunity
for widespread precipitation for southwest Kansas will be when
the main upper wave crosses the Central Plains Thursday or
Friday.

Once this upper trough finally crosses the central plains a
cold front will cross southwest Kansas and this will usher in
some cooler, more seasonal, temperatures back to southwest
Kansas late week and early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Clouds invading southwest Kansas over the past several hours
had lower cloud bases than what the short term models advertised
earlier this morning. Based on this along with the depth of
this moist layer from the BUFR soundings it still appears that
these low clouds will be slow to erode from south to north
through mid afternoon. Cloud bases will improve over the next 6
hours with VFR ceilings expected by 18z today. Clouds will then
erode with breaks of sunshine developing between 18z and 21z
today. The winds will be north northwest at 10 to 15 mph today.
These winds will then become light and variable overnight as an
area of high pressure builds across western Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert