Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
129 FXXX12 KWNP 251231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 25 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... NOTE: GOES X-Ray Flux, Electron Flux, and Proton Flux data have been unavailable since 24/2125 UTC due to a network outage. Work is in progress to restore services. Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an isolated M1.1 flare at 24/1910 UTC from Region 3713 (S14, L=158) from just beyond the SW limb. Region 3723 (S19E51, Fai/beta-gamma-delta) remained the most magnetically complex spot group, however the region changed little over the last 24 hours. Slight growth occurred in the intermediate and trailing spots of Region 3720 (S06E04, Dai/beta-gamma). New Region 3727 (S18E66, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. An approximate 35 degree filament eruption centered near S19E58 was observed lifting off at 24/2310 UTC. An associated CME was observed off the W limb at 25/0539 UTC. Analysis will be conducted as further imagery becomes available. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely on 25-27 Jun due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3723 and 3720. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 25-27 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at or near background levels on 25-27 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected possible weak transient activity. At 24/1723 UTC, to total field showed a sudden increase from 3 nT to 5 nT. A further increase to near 8 nT was observed near the end of the period. A prolonged period of southward Bz reaching -7 nT was observed between 25/0035-0930 UTC. Solar wind speed ranged from 268-347 km/s. Phi angle was mostly negative. .Forecast... There is a slight chance for enhanced solar wind conditions on 27 Jun due to a glancing interaction from a passing CME associated with a filament eruption on 23 Jun but confidence is low. Otherwise, nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail 25-27 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail over 25-27 Jun. As mentioned previously there is a slight enhancement of the solar wind which could lead to unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field on 27 Jun but confidence is low.