Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
558 FXXX12 KWNP 270031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 27 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decayed to low levels this period. Region 3723 (S19E30, Fai/beta-gamma-delta) the biggest region on the disk, produced the largest event, a long-duration C6.2/Sf at 26/1530 UTC. Slight decay was observed in the leading and trailing spots of this region. At 26/0012 UTC, Region 3727 (S18E46, Cso/beta) produced a C4.2 flare. A slight increase in spot count was observed in this region. New Region 3729 (S03E65, Dso/beta) rotated around the E limb and was numbered. Modeling of the CME, that was associated with the 35 degree filament eruption centered near S19W58 that was observed lifting off at 24/2310 UTC, returned with flanking influences at Earth by late on 28 Jun. EUV darkening was observed at 25/2224 UTC around Region 3720 (S06W16, Dai/beta). A likely associated CME was observed off the SSW limb at 25/2336 UTC. Initial analysis suggests weak glancing effects possible on 01 Jul. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely on 27-29 Jun due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3723 and 3720. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 27-29 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels on 27-29 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected continued weak transient activity. The geomagnetic field varied from 5 to near 12 nT while the Bz component ranged between +11/-9 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from about 350-375 km/s. Phi was in a mostly negative orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to gradually recover to nominal levels on 27 Jun. An enhancement from the large filament eruption observed late on 24 June is likely to arrive late on 28 Jun through 29 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Mostly quiet levels are expected on 27 Jun. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming is likely late on 28 Jun through 29 Jun with the arrival of flanking effects from the 24 Jun CME.