523
FXUS63 KDLH 220555
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain and some thunderstorms continue through the
weekend.

- More showers and storms are possible Monday late-afternoon into
early Tuesday morning. Some strong to severe storms are possible.

- Active weather with rain and thunder chances persist through next
week with occasional breaks of sunshine.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

This afternoon, we`re continuing to watch rain and storm potential
with a quasi-stalled warm front across southern Minnesota, which is
expected to very slowly migrate north going into Saturday. Models
are in good agreement about keeping this front south of our region,
and as such, flooding rain potential has been greatly reduced. We
will still have several upper-level waves passing through, and
eventually a low pressure center that will pass by just to the south
on Saturday. This will keep at least scattered showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms across the region through tonight, especially east-
central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Amounts are generally
expected to be light relative to what we`ve seen the past several
days with totals generally less than 0.5" through tonight.
Instability is expected to increase overnight, raising the chances
for thunder late, but with MUCAPE remaining below 500 J/kg, severe
weather is not expected.

On Saturday, we essentially see a continuation of rain chances.
A more potent upper-level wave and the attendant low-pressure
center will pass through central Minnesota into central/northern
Wisconsin, and with this, we may see a more organized area of
rainfall move through especially in the afternoon. Chances for
any strong to severe storms have continued to decrease for
Sunday afternoon as the best instability remains well to the
south. At this point, we may see a few storms in the afternoon
and early evening, mainly in northwest Wisconsin. Couldn`t rule
out a stray strong to severe storm, but the likelihood continues
to decrease. For rainfall totals, additional amounts around
0.5" to 1.5", mainly across northwest Wisconsin towards the
Twin Ports on Saturday. Another passing wave aloft may bring
another area of rain into northeast Minnesota Saturday night
into Sunday. With this, only light rainfall amounts (0.25" or
less) are expected as we get into more of a west/northwest flow
pattern and PWATs decrease from ~1.5" to ~1". With a very small
amount of instability, some stray rumbles of thunder can`t be
ruled out.

East/northeasterly winds shift to northwesterly on Sunday, and
additional showers and possibly non-severe storms will be
possible (20-40% chance). These will linger into the evening
before diminishing with clearing skies expected Sunday night.

Strong warm air advection aloft underneath upper-level ridging
will bring about a chance for thunderstorms, some of which could
be strong to severe late evening Monday through Monday night.
Depending on the position of a warm front to the south, the
threat for severe weather could be around our region or perhaps
further to the south. North of the warm front, the environment
is expected to be capped, but aside from that, there should be
plenty of instability available for thunderstorms (up to 2000 to
3000 J/kg of MUCAPE). We will have to continue to monitor how
this setup evolves, but right now, there is at least a small chance
for some strong to severe storms during this period.

Going forward into the week, there may be a quieter stretch of
weather on Tuesday with flow becoming northwesterly behind a
cold front. The active pattern still doesn`t show much signs of
stopping, however, and there may be more chances for rain/storms
in the later part of the week.

Temperature-wise, seasonal to slightly above average this
weekend, then briefly warmer Monday and Tuesday with highs in
the lower 80s. Some relatively cooler (but seasonable)
temperatures are likely for the later parts of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Initial VFR conditions with light east winds of less than 10kts.
Rain with embedded thunder to spread into the area from the
southwest during the early morning, then spread east Saturday
morning. For now it appears the lowest conditions are expected
for KBRD, KHYR and KDLH, with ceilings lowering to IFR and MVFR
visibilities where the heaviest showers pass. MVFR conditions
can be expected for KHIB, but conditions to remain VFR for KINL.
These lowered ceilings to linger Saturday afternoon and evening,
with some sites returning to VFR for the end of the TAF period.
Rain chances move back in from the northwest after 00z for KINL.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Winds are expected to remain northeasterly tonight with gusts 15
kt or less, but strengthening on Saturday through the day where
gusts to 25 knots and wave heights up to 5 ft are expected for
most nearshore waters, particularly the Head of the Lake, up the
North Shore, and South Shore through the Outer Apostle Islands.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for these areas. Winds will
become westerly to southwesterly on Sunday, and speeds will be
less than 10 knots. There will be a small chance (20%) for
thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday. Rain is expected at
times through the weekend, especially Saturday afternoon and
night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ142>147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...JDS