455
FXUS63 KDLH 140535
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1235 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will occur across the Northland into
  this evening. A strong storm or two will be possible with
  gusty winds and small hail the main threats. Fog may develop
  tonight after the storms/clouds move off.

- Chances for thunderstorms return over the weekend into next
  week with a warm and moist airmass building through that time.

- Although still early, there will be a chance for severe storms
  and heavy rain at times, especially late weekend into the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

This afternoon through Friday night...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over northern
Minnesota may drop into central Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin late afternoon/evening before dissipating. MUCAPE
values were 500-1000j/kg over northern Minnesota with effective
deep layer shear of 25 to 30 knots. Soundings reveal drier low
levels with an inverted-V appearance. Low level lapse rates were
also steep, 8-9.5c/km. We`re just entering peak heating and a
strong storm or two will be possible into early evening with
small hail and gusty winds possible. The storms will end later
this evening and skies will clear. Some patchy fog will
develop tonight.

Dry conditions are expected on Friday with upper ridging
building into the Northern Plains. Highs will be in the
seventies but off lake winds will keep lakeside areas a bit
cooler.

Southerly low level flow and warm air/moisture advection may
cause some showers/storms to move into southwest portions of the
Northland later Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday...

Chances for showers/storms will increase Saturday into Saturday
night with a shortwave moving northeast and continued
warm/moisture advection. Chances (60-80%) peak Saturday night
from far eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. CAPE will
gradually build but values will be marginal for severe through
Saturday night. However, given how moist we`ve been, there will
be at least a low chance for some minor flooding.

Greater instability will be in place Sunday with PWAT values
from 1.3-1.6" and surface temperatures in the upper seventies
to mid-eighties leading to MUCAPE values 1000-2500j/kg across
the Northland during the afternoon. Shear values will also be
supportive for severe storms. However, one limiting factor will
be forcing as a shortwave exits by early afternoon leaving
behind low amplitude ridging. There will be weak low level
convergence though and there will be at least a low chance for
strong to severe storms during the afternoon overnight period.

Monday through Wednesday...

The Northland will be under southwest flow aloft through mid-
week. High PWAT values 1.5-2", per the GFS, are expected to be
over the area or near which will aid in producing plenty of
instability. The stronger southwest flow aloft will produce
adequate deep layer shear. There is still uncertainty regarding
the location of low level forcing as seen in the global models
and with variations from run to run. The main takeaway though is
there is potential for both severe storms and heavy rain early
to at least the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The main challenge through the night is fog potential. We have
mostly clear skies and nearly calm winds, which are ideal for
fog formation. Temperature and dew point depressions are still a
few degrees apart around the region, so fog has been slow to
develop. Models are not in good agreement for any particular
terminal, with most suggesting no fog (which doesn`t seem likely
given current conditions). The best potential may be at HIB/DLH,
and possibly at INL/HYR where some models suggest at least some
fog. Most likely, for terminals that see fog develop over the
next few hours, visibility will likely jump up and down between
VFR/MVFR/IFR over short durations. After sunrise, fog should
quickly diminish, leading to very quiet and sunny weather. There
will be potential again for fog Friday night, but confidence is
too low to include in any TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Gusty westerly winds around 25 knots will continue this
afternoon but diminish this evening. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect through 7PM CDT. A few thunderstorms will be
possible and they may be strong producing small hail and gusty
winds to 35 knots.

Winds will become onshore Friday and continue Friday night but
be at or less than 15 knots.

Easterly winds will be a bit stronger on Saturday, from 8 to 15
knots with higher gusts.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Melde