Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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765 FXUS63 KDLH 212341 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 641 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible this afternoon into the evening, with an isolated severe storm possible over portions of NW WI. - Cooler and quieter weather Sunday and into next week. - Chance of patchy frost Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Areas of showers and thunderstorms have been continuously developing today across the tongue of a warm sector reaching into the Northland along a gradient of marginal MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. However, there is a lot of stable air sticking around north of the current activity, and we saw more precipitation than was expected this morning, especially across Pine County and NW WI. Initially, it was thought that we might see a line of discrete storms initiate along a cold front in NE MN as it made it`s way southeast. Several areas of cumulus have developed but not been able to develop past a stratocumulus mediocris stage. A line of thunderstorms has developed from St. Cloud nearly into Pine County, which may be the best chance for a strong to severe storm across portions of Pine, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price Counties late this afternoon into the evening. Some showers could develop across NE MN under CAA and northwest flow, but not expecting much thunderstorm activity. Much cooler temperatures filter into the Northland behind today`s cold front. We`ll see almost normal high temperatures in the mid to high 60s Sunday with lows in the 40s tonight. An even chillier night is likely into Monday morning. With clear skies, temperatures are currently forecast to fall into the mid to high 30s and areas of frost are possible. A Frost Advisory may be needed. Into next week, temperatures in the 60s and 70s are expected, with a gentle warm up hedging towards mid to upper 70s mid to late week. Despite being cooler than some our recent hot temperatures, this is still 10 to 20 degrees above normal. A lack of precipitation, a dry airmass, and clear skies should lead to good cool downs overnight. Global models are in fairly decent agreement for a very low chance of precipitation until next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions expected through this terminal forecast. A cold front sliding through the terminals this evening has caused winds to turn from southerly at 10kts or less to northwest at 10-15kts with gusts up to 25kts, diminishing again after a few hours. Sunday winds will be northwest, in the 5 to 10 knot range. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 There is a low chance for some thunderstorms this evening. Winds become northwesterly behind the cold front, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots possible overnight into Sunday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of Western Lake Superior. Through the day Sunday, winds remain northwesterly but calm to 5 to 15 knots. No significant weather or winds expected early to mid week. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-140>142-147-148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ143>146. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...LE MARINE...Levens