Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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237 FXUS63 KDLH 212015 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 315 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible this afternoon into the evening, with an isolated severe storm possible over portions of NW WI. - Cooler and quieter weather Sunday and into next week. - Chance of patchy frost Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Areas of showers and thunderstorms have been continuously developing today across the tongue of a warm sector reaching into the Northland along a gradient of marginal MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. However, there is a lot of stable air sticking around north of the current activity, and we saw more precipitation than was expected this morning, especially across Pine County and NW WI. Initially, it was thought that we might see a line of discrete storms initiate along a cold front in NE MN as it made it`s way southeast. Several areas of cumulus have developed but not been able to develop past a stratocumulus mediocris stage. A line of thunderstorms has developed from St. Cloud nearly into Pine County, which may be the best chance for a strong to severe storm across portions of Pine, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price Counties late this afternoon into the evening. Some showers could develop across NE MN under CAA and northwest flow, but not expecting much thunderstorm activity. Much cooler temperatures filter into the Northland behind today`s cold front. We`ll see almost normal high temperatures in the mid to high 60s Sunday with lows in the 40s tonight. An even chillier night is likely into Monday morning. With clear skies, temperatures are currently forecast to fall into the mid to high 30s and areas of frost are possible. A Frost Advisory may be needed. Into next week, temperatures in the 60s and 70s are expected, with a gentle warm up hedging towards mid to upper 70s mid to late week. Despite being cooler than some our recent hot temperatures, this is still 10 to 20 degrees above normal. A lack of precipitation, a dry airmass, and clear skies should lead to good cool downs overnight. Global models are in fairly decent agreement for a very low chance of precipitation until next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Showers and thunderstorms continue to be possible through this afternoon and evening, mostly at DLH and HYR, but may be on the edge of HIB and INL as well. These may temporarily reduce ceilings and visibilities. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms in NW WI should push eastward through early this afternoon, and then expecting an additional round of thunderstorm development mid afternoon. Some gusty northwest winds are possible post front this evening and overnight with predominantly VFR conditions continuing through the rest of the TAF period. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 There is a low chance for some thunderstorms this evening. Winds become northwesterly behind the cold front, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots possible overnight into Sunday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of Western Lake Superior. Through the day Sunday, winds remain northwesterly but calm to 5 to 15 knots. No significant weather or winds expected early to mid week. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-140>142-147-148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ143>146. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Levens