122
FXUS63 KDTX 180339
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1139 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather holds through Friday.

- Dry conditions likely hold into the weekend, but a weak cold front
  has a low chance of reaching Lower Mi with spotty light rain
  possible later Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure to maintain VFR conditions with light easterly flow.
Lake moisture flux and nocturnal radiational cooling will once again
support a brief window for MVFR fog Wednesday morning. A slight
increase in low level moisture will bring a better potential for FEW
to SCT diurnal cumulus by midday Wednesday.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms are forecast through this
week.

 DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

DISCUSSION...

The stretch of dry weather with above normal temperatures will
continue for the next several days as a blocking pattern holds the
500 mb ridge and surface high in place. A light east-southeast wind
will result across southeast Michigan with the center of the surface
high over the northeast US. Skies are expected to remain mostly
clear through this evening with the exception of a few high clouds
creeping northward that are associated with the remnants of a
tropical system well to our south. The light winds and mostly clear
skies will provide good radiational cooling conditions tonight. This
will allow temperatures to fall into the the upper 50s where
dewpoints reside and bring potential for patchy fog development
during the early morning hours.

The tropical system and associated mid level closed low hangs out
over the western Carolina states into Wednesday before eventually
opening up and releasing into the Mid Atlantic during the late week
period. Michigan will reside underneath the ridge between this
system and another low pressure lifting out of the Rockies into the
northern plains. This will ensure dry weather conditions through
Friday. Minimal airmass change during this time frame will hold
daily high temperatures in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows
mostly in the mid to upper 50s.

Slight shift in the larger scale pattern heading into the weekend as
a weak cold front approaches western Michigan. This would offer a
low end chance of precipitation for parts of western and central
Lower Michigan as the front washes out with the approach to southeast
Michigan. The majority of ensemble members keep the forecast dry for
nearly all of southeast Michigan, but a few spotty light showers
will be possible, mainly towards the Tri-Cities.

MARINE...

Aggregate surface high pressure beneath split-flow aloft maintains
low-impact marine conditions across the central Great Lakes through
Friday. Generally light southeast winds (AOB 15 knots) become more
easterly composed midweek before a surface low tracks northeast
across central Canada toward Hudson Bay Thursday and Friday. A cold
front extending well south of the low offers some potential for
showers/storms, but they will likely dissipate before reaching the
local waterways as the boundary quickly washes out. The next system
emerges over The Plains Sunday with an eastward drift into Monday
which offers an opportunity for slightly more energetic winds and a
broader precipitation footprint. However, no marine headlines are
expected through the next seven days.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KGK


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